IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esr/wpaper/wp548.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the Medium to Long Term Potential Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit on Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Bergin, Adele
  • Garcia Rodriguez, Abian
  • Mc Inerney, Niall
  • Morgenroth, Edgar
  • Smith, Donal

Abstract

There is almost a complete consensus in the international literature that BREXIT will have a negative effect on the UK economy both in the short and long-run. The UK is one of Ireland’s closest economic partners and little is known about the potential macro-economic impact that BREXIT could have on the Irish economy. In this paper, we use the new COre Structural MOdel of the Irish economy (COSMO) to attempt to quantify the medium to long-run impact of BREXIT on the Irish economy under a series of alternative scenarios. These scenarios are intended to cover a range of potential agreements between the UK and the EU. We find that the level of Irish output is permanently below what it otherwise would have been in the absence of BREXIT.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergin, Adele & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Mc Inerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2016. "Modelling the Medium to Long Term Potential Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit on Ireland," Papers WP548, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp548
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP548.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jessica Baker & Oriol Carreras & Monique Ebell & Ian Hurst & Simon Kirby & Jack Meaning & Rebecca Piggott & James Warren, 2016. "The Short–Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 108-120, May.
    2. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    3. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Pessoa, João Paulo & Sampson, Thomas & Van Reenen, John, 2014. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU," CFS Working Paper Series 472, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, August.
    5. Ebell, Monique & Hurst, Ian & Warren, James, 2016. "Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 196-209.
    6. Monique Ebell & James Warren, 2016. "The Long-Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 121-138, May.
    7. Barrett, Alan & Bergin, Adele & FitzGerald, John & Lambert, Derek & McCoy, Daire & Morgenroth,Edgar & Siedschlag, Iulia & Studnicka, Zuzanna, 2015. "Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS48, August.
    8. Rafal Kierzenkowski & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Sanne Zwart, 2016. "The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision," OECD Economic Policy Papers 16, OECD Publishing.
    9. Martina Lawless & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth, 2019. "The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 189-207, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Demographic Change, Long-Run Housing Demand and the Related Challenges for the Irish Banking Sector," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Lawless, Martina, 2018. "Intermediate goods inputs and the UK content of Irish goods exports," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT362, August.
    3. Bergin, Adele & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Mc Inerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Baseline: Methodology, Assumptions and Projections," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor & Economides, Philip & Monteiro, Teresa, 2018. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2018," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC2018SPR, August.
    5. Adolfo Maza & Paula Gutiérrez‐Portilla & José Villaverde, 2020. "On the drivers of UK direct investment in the Spanish regions: A spatial Durbin approach," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 646-675, June.
    6. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, August.
    7. Morell, Joe & Rice, Jonathan & Shaw, Frances, 2022. "A Framework for Macroprudential Stress Testing," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2017. "Ireland’s international trade and transport connections," Papers WP573, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Bergin, Adele & Economides, Philip & Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian & Murphy, Gavin, 2019. "Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2019. "Brexit Impacts: Opportunities for German-Irish Trade," MPRA Paper 96602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Opportunities and Risks for Foreign Direct Investment," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Christine Arriola & Caitlyn Carrico & David Haugh & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Donal Smith & Frank van Tongeren & Ben Westmore, 2018. "The Potential Macroeconomic and Sectoral Consequences of Brexit on Ireland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1508, OECD Publishing.
    13. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2018. "Brexit and Irish Consumers," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Lawless, Martina, 2018. "Irish-UK Services Trade and Brexit," Papers WP595, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christine Arriola & Caitlyn Carrico & David Haugh & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Donal Smith & Frank van Tongeren & Ben Westmore, 2018. "The Potential Macroeconomic and Sectoral Consequences of Brexit on Ireland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1508, OECD Publishing.
    2. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2017. "Ireland’s international trade and transport connections," Papers WP573, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Bergin, Adele & Economides, Philip & Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian & Murphy, Gavin, 2019. "Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    5. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Pitsoulis, Athanassios & Schwuchow, Soeren, 2018. "Though this be madness: A game-theoretic perspective on the Brexit negotiations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181635, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen & Overman, Henry, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 242, pages 24-36, November.
    8. Stefan Schiman, 2016. "Weltwirtschaft durch EU-Austritt Großbritanniens kaum beeinträchtigt. Mittelfristige Prognose bis 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(10), pages 717-727, October.
    9. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2019. "Brexit Impacts: Opportunities for German-Irish Trade," MPRA Paper 96602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki & Kuusi, Tero, 2019. "Brexit and Indirect Impact Routes through Global Value Chains," ETLA Reports 89, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    11. Hagemejer, Jan & Dunin-Wasowicz, Maria & Michalek, Jan & Szyszka, Jacek, 2020. "Trade-related effects of Brexit. Implications for Central and Eastern Europe," Conference papers 333187, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Ken Coutts & Graham Gudgin & Jordan Buchanan, 2018. "How the Economics Profession Got It Wrong on Brexit," Working Papers wp493, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    13. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2020. "Who is unhappy for Brexit? A machine-learning, agent-based study on financial instability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 317-331, September.
    15. László Békési & Zsolt Kovalszky & Tímea Várnai, 2017. "Scenarios for potential macroeconomic impact of Brexit on Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2017/125, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    16. Halmai, Péter, 2020. "A dezintegráció gazdaságtana. A brexit esete [The economics of disintegration. The case of Brexit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 837-877.
    17. Giammetti, Raffaele, 2019. "Tariffs, Domestic Import Substitution and Trade Diversion in Input-Output Production Networks: how to deal with Brexit," MPRA Paper 93229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2018. "Brexit and Irish Consumers," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    19. David Comerford & José V Rodríguez Mora & Beata Javorcik, 2019. "The gains from economic integration," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 201-266.
    20. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Zum Szenario eines Austritts des Vereinigten Königreichs aus der EU (Brexit)," Kiel Insight 2016.16, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp548. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Burns (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esriiie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.