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Brexit and Indirect Impact Routes through Global Value Chains

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  • Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki
  • Kuusi, Tero

Abstract

Abstract In this study, we analyze the trade linkages between the United Kingdom (UK), Finland, and the European Union (EU). We calculate the value-added content of trade through complex global value chains (GVCs), which may involve numerous production stages and third countries. Our results show that the importance of the UK as a trading partner for Finland has decreased during the last 15 years, and the tendency has been stronger than that between the UK and other EU countries, on average. We compare the importance of the UK to that of other countries by extracting the total amount of the Finnish value added that is generated in the value chains involving individual countries. Through this comparison, we find that the UK ranks as the sixth most important country. We further decompose the total value added into components that quantify the value added that is generated through direct trade with the UK and the indirect trade that is channeled through third countries. We find that roughly one third of the total value added is generated through indirect trade and two thirds through direct trade. Our analysis also suggests that one fifth of both the Finnish and EU value-added trade to the UK passes through the UK to other countries. The main destination countries are the United States (US), Germany, and France.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki & Kuusi, Tero, 2019. "Brexit and Indirect Impact Routes through Global Value Chains," ETLA Reports 89, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:rif:report:89
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
    2. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    3. Wen Chen & Bart Los & Philip McCann & Raquel Ortega‐Argilés & Mark Thissen & Frank van Oort, 2018. "The continental divide? Economic exposure to Brexit in regions and countries on both sides of The Channel," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 25-54, March.
    4. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-1997, December.
    5. Ebell, Monique & Hurst, Ian & Warren, James, 2016. "Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 196-209.
    6. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global value chain; Brexit; United Kingdom; Gross domestic product; Impact; Indirect; Route; Value added;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production

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