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Though this be madness: A game-theoretic perspective on the Brexit negotiations

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Listed:
  • Pitsoulis, Athanassios
  • Schwuchow, Soeren

Abstract

On June 19, 2017 the European Union and the British government officially commenced negotiations on the terms of the British exit from the union. The dominant view among most economic policy analysts and commentators seems to be that the cards are clearly stacked against Britain and that the high-handed behaviour of the British representatives is, at best, either a bluff or, at worst, a sign of a loss of reality. In this paper we develop a formal model to show how this uncertainty regarding the preferences and strategy of the British side may affect the dynamic of the negotiations and may lead to unanticipated outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Pitsoulis, Athanassios & Schwuchow, Soeren, 2018. "Though this be madness: A game-theoretic perspective on the Brexit negotiations," Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181635, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc18:181635
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ellen R. McGrattan & Andrea Waddle, 2020. "The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 76-103, January.
    2. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    3. Busch, Berthold & Diermeier, Matthias & Goecke, Henry & Hüther, Michael, 2016. "Brexit and Europe's future: A game theoretical approach," IW policy papers 18/2016, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    4. Begg, Iain & Mushövel, Fabian, 2016. "The economic impact of brexit: jobs, growth and the public finances," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67008, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Ebell, Monique & Hurst, Ian & Warren, James, 2016. "Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 196-209.
    6. Pitsoulis, Athanassios & Schwuchow, Soeren C., 2017. "Holding out for a better deal: Brinkmanship in the Greek bailout negotiations," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 40-53.
    7. Rafal Kierzenkowski & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Sanne Zwart, 2016. "The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision," OECD Economic Policy Papers 16, OECD Publishing.
    8. Alexandra Hennessy, 2017. "Good Samaritans vs. Hardliners: the Role of Credible Signalling in Greek Bailout Negotiations," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 744-761, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; game theory; madman strategy; trembling-hand perfection;

    JEL classification:

    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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