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The costs and benefits of leaving the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Ottaviano, Gianmarco
  • Pessoa, João Paulo
  • Sampson, Thomas
  • Van Reenen, John

Abstract

What would be the economic effects of the UK leaving the European Union on living standards of British people? We focus on the effects of trade on welfare net of lower fiscal transfers to the EU. We use a standard quantitative static general equilibrium trade model with multiple sectors, countries and intermediates, as in Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2013). Static losses range between 1.13% and 3.09% of GDP, depending on the assumptions used in our counterfactual scenarios. Including dynamic effects could more than double such losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Pessoa, João Paulo & Sampson, Thomas & Van Reenen, John, 2014. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU," CFS Working Paper Series 472, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:472
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    1. The "cost" bias
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2015-02-27 20:04:22

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; European Union; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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