IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aic/saebjn/v67y2020isip69-85n194.html

Brexit: An Exploratory Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects on the British Economy

Author

Listed:
  • João Alves Bento
  • António Portugal Duarte

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of the Brexit announcement on the British economy. For this, we use a counterfactual analysis methodology, predicting a set of macroeconomic variables of the British economy in a scenario where the Brexit announcement did not happen and measuring what drifted away from its effective value. To forecast the variables we use the ARIMA method. Our conclusions are that if Brexit had not been announced: i) the exchange rate of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar would not have had such a sharp depreciation trend; ii) real wage growth would not have been as high after the referendum; iii) the growth rate of the consumer price index would not have had such a strong growth trend and iv) the Gross Domestic Product would have grown at a higher pace and after three years of Brexit announcement it would have been 3% higher. JEL Codes - E17; F13; F15

Suggested Citation

  • João Alves Bento & António Portugal Duarte, 2020. "Brexit: An Exploratory Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects on the British Economy," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(si), pages 69-85, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:67:y:2020:i:si:p:69-85:n:194
    DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2020-0027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://saeb.feaa.uaic.ro/index.php/saeb/article/view/1196
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.47743/saeb-2020-0027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:67:y:2020:i:si:p:69-85:n:194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sireteanu Napoleon-Alexandru (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feaicro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.