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Is Hard Brexit Detrimental to EU Integration? Theory and Evidence

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  • Irena Mikolajun
  • Jean-Marie Viaene

Abstract

In the struggle between the forces of free trade and the restrictive influence of insularism the latter recently seems to have the upper hand. This is illustrated by the referendum of June 23, 2016 where the United Kingdom (UK) voted to leave the European Union (EU). In this paper we evaluate the consequences of this event for EU integration. In particular, we analyze how the extent of EU economic integration would change once the UK leaves the Union. To that end we develop an integration benchmark that consists of the steady state production equilibrium characterized by arbitrage pricing and perfect factor mobility. We apply metrics to measure the distance between this benchmark and the data. We find that the integration in the EU is incomplete and its trend is non-linear while Brexit would not bring negative consequences to its development..

Suggested Citation

  • Irena Mikolajun & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2018. "Is Hard Brexit Detrimental to EU Integration? Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 7199, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7199
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7199.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Brexit; regional integration; Euclidean distance; factor mobility; arbitrage pricing; reflected geometric Brownian motion;

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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