Heckscher-Ohlin Specialization and the Marginal Product of Capital, 1976-2000

This paper estimates the Heckscher-Ohlin (HO) model of international specialization with a panel of 44 developing and developed countries between 1976 and 2000. As Schott (2003), our empirical model includes multiple cones and recasts industry-level data in theoretically appropriate HO aggregates, i.e. sets of goods with similar factor intensities. The time dimension enables us to obtain better estimates of international total factor productivity differences and of the development path of each country. We correct for international differences in factor qualities and prices. For capital, we use the results of Eaton-Kortum (2001) who find a higher cost of capital in poor countries. Consistent with neoclassical theory, the estimated values for the marginal product of capital are on average higher in poorer countries. Nevertheless, once we adjust for the fact that capital is more expensive in these countries, we find that the financial rate of return of capital investment is rather similar in rich and poor countries, thereby explaining the Lucas (1990) paradox.