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The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll

Author

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  • Seamus McGuinness
  • Adele Bergin

Abstract

Given the increased prominence of a border poll in Ireland, particularly following the outcome of the Brexit referendum, this paper provides an initial assessment of some of the issues that are likely to become central in any debate on this issue. We examine the relative income and growth position of Northern Ireland within a UK and Irish regional framework over time. We further compare, and contrast, in detail aspects of the structure of both economies on the island of Ireland in the areas of educational attainment, trade orientation and the role of Foreign Direct Investment. The paper goes on to analyse other relevant issues, such as the relative strength and weaknesses of the healthcare systems and the factors determining the potential economic cost of Irish unification. The objective of the research is to initiate an evidence-based approach to the question of a border poll and to provide an initial indication of the breadth of detail and analysis required for any debate to proceed in a meaningful manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Seamus McGuinness & Adele Bergin, 2020. "The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(4), pages 781-812.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:44:y:2020:i:4:p:781-812.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/beaa007
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    Cited by:

    1. Bergin, Adele & Low, Hailey & Millard, Stephen & Verma, Akhilesh Kumar, 2025. "Modelling Northern Ireland within the context of the all-island economy," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS198.
    2. Barrett, Alan & Bergin, Adele, 2025. "Assessing economic trends in Ireland and Northern Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number SUSTAT134.
    3. Bergin, Adele & McGuinness, Seamus & Banahan, Conor, 2025. "Economic overview of Ireland and Northern Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS203.
    4. Siedschlag, Iulia & Yan, Weijie, 2021. "Enhancing the attractiveness of the all-island economy to high-value sectors," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS133.
    5. Disch, Wendy & Egan, Paul & Kenny, Eoin & McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Contrasting housing supply in Ireland, Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS175.
    6. Bergins, Adele & McGuinness, Seamus, 2022. "Modelling productivity levels in Ireland and Northern Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS152.
    7. McGinnity, Frances & Bergin, Adele & McGuinness, Seamus & Smyth, Emer, 2025. "Sharing the Island: Economic and social challenges and opportunities: Evidence from an ESRI research programme," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS202.
    8. Smyth, Emer & Devlin, Anne & Bergin, Adele & McGuinness, Seamus, 2022. "A North-South comparison of education and training systems: Lessons for policy," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS138.
    9. Chih‐Hai Yang & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2023. "The Substitution Effect of US‐China Trade War on Taiwanese Trade," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 61(4), pages 324-341, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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