Exploring the forecasting and temporal causality patterns of multilayer trade networks reflecting global economic changes

This study examines the dynamic evolution of global trade networks from 1995 to 2020 using the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD’s) intercountry input–output (ICIO) data. This research combines multilayer network theory methods with advanced statistical and econometric procedures, including dynamic multilayer network analysis methods, (bi)clustering, and causal analyses to evaluate the temporal nature of structural, sectorial and country-level indicators. The primary objective of this study is to identify causal patterns in multilayer trade network structures and reveal the roles of specific countries and industries as drivers of changes in global trade dynamics. Using the proposed methods, we define causal graphs between the structural indicators of the multilayer network. The resulting causal graph is organized into groups using modularity analysis, and the relationships are biclustered, thereby determining which structural factors/industries/countries affect other country groups/industries and revealing the dynamics of structural changes. We determine which factors change simultaneously and which factors and actors exhibit a delay between their changes. The analysis reveals significant shifts in structural indicators, highlighting the evolving roles of major players like China and the US. The findings indicate that the structural indicators of trade networks/industries/countries often move in unison, with changes in one country/industry potentially triggering rapid transformations across the entire network. This study also uncovers the cascading effects of economic disruptions on trade patterns, emphasizing the interconnectedness of countries and industries in the face of global economic changes. These insights are crucial for policymakers and business leaders, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies to enhance the level of resilience of countries and industries to persistent global economic fluctuations and crises.