IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v12y2022i3p361-d763267.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Influence of Country Risks on the International Agricultural Trade Patterns Based on Network Analysis and Panel Data Method

Author

Listed:
  • Qingru Sun

    (School of Economics, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China
    Research Center for Resource Utilization and Environmental Protection, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Meiyi Hou

    (School of Economics, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China
    Research Center for Resource Utilization and Environmental Protection, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Shuaiwei Shi

    (School of Economics, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China
    Research Center for Resource Utilization and Environmental Protection, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China)

  • Liwei Cui

    (School of Economics, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China
    Research Center for Resource Utilization and Environmental Protection, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China)

  • Zenglei Xi

    (School of Economics, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China
    Research Center for Resource Utilization and Environmental Protection, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China)

Abstract

The pattern of international agricultural trade is undergoing profound changes. The influence of country risks on the international agricultural trade pattern is prominent. In this paper, we comprehensively analyze the international agricultural trade patterns and explore the influence of country risks on them. Specifically, we first construct an international agricultural trade network (IATN) based on complex network theory. Second, we analyze each country’s diversity of import sources and the position of countries in the IATN using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and network indicators, such as in-degree, out-degree, weighted in-degree, weighted out-degree, and betweenness centrality. Third, this paper explores the influence of different types of country risks, including economic risk and political risk, on international agricultural trade patterns using the panel regression method. The results show that countries played different roles and occupied different positions in the international agricultural trade pattern; notably, the United States occupied a core position, while Japan and Mexico had insufficient diversity in import sources. Moreover, based on the panel regression method, we find that political risks have a positive impact on the agricultural trade pattern, while an unstable economic environment could inhibit the agricultural trade pattern in various countries. This study could provide references for countries to implement agricultural trade policies regarding country risks to ensure stable agricultural trade relations and national food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Qingru Sun & Meiyi Hou & Shuaiwei Shi & Liwei Cui & Zenglei Xi, 2022. "The Influence of Country Risks on the International Agricultural Trade Patterns Based on Network Analysis and Panel Data Method," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:3:p:361-:d:763267
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/3/361/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/3/361/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David A. Fleming & David G. Abler & Stephan J. Goetz, 2010. "Agricultural trade and poverty in Chile: a spatial analysis of product tradability," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(6), pages 545-553, November.
    2. Rebekka Burkholz & Frank Schweitzer, 2019. "International crop trade networks: The impact of shocks and cascades," Papers 1901.05872, arXiv.org.
    3. Mikhail Krivko & Luboš Smutka, 2021. "Agricultural and Foodstuff Trade between EU28 and Russia: (Non)Uniformity of the Russian Import Ban Impact Distribution," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Sampath Jayasinghe & Rakhal Sarker, 2008. "Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade in Agrifood Products: Evidence from Gravity Modeling Using Disaggregated Data," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 61-81.
    5. Mina Kim & Gue Dae Cho & Won W. Koo, 2004. "Does the Exchange Rate Matter to Agricultural Bilateral Trade between Canada and the U.S.?," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 52(1), pages 127-145, March.
    6. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2011. "How sensitive is U.S. agricultural trade to the bilateral exchange rate? Evidence from bulk, intermediate, and consumer‐oriented products," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 387-403, May.
    7. Carolyn L. Evans, 2003. "The Economic Significance of National Border Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1291-1312, September.
    8. Liu Heguang & Minoru Tada & Sun Dongsheng, 2009. "Changing patterns in comparative advantage for agricultural trade in East Asian countries," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(2), pages 227-238, January.
    9. Elena Kuzmenko & Lenka Rumankova & Irena Benesova & Lubos Smutka, 2022. "Czech Comparative Advantage in Agricultural Trade with Regard to EU-27: Main Developmental Trends and Peculiarities," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, February.
    10. Sampath Jayasinghe & Rakhal Sarker, 2008. "Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade in Agrifood Products: Evidence from Gravity Modeling Using Disaggregated Data," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 61-81.
    11. M. Bruna Zolin & Utai Uprasen, 2018. "Trade creation and diversion: effects of EU enlargement on agricultural and food products and selected Asian countries," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 351-373, December.
    12. Vivoda, Vlado, 2019. "LNG import diversification and energy security in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 967-974.
    13. Chan‐Hyun Sohn, 2005. "Does The Gravity Model Explain South Korea'S Trade Flows?," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 417-430, December.
    14. Sun, Qingru & Gao, Xiangyun & Zhong, Weiqiong & Liu, Nairong, 2017. "The stability of the international oil trade network from short-term and long-term perspectives," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 345-356.
    15. Zhang, Hongwei & Wang, Ying & Yang, Cai & Guo, Yaoqi, 2021. "The impact of country risk on energy trade patterns based on complex network and panel regression analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    16. Eum, Jihyun & Sheldon, Ian & Thompson, Stanley R., 2021. "Product Quality in Food and Agricultural Trade: Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Trade Costs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(1), January.
    17. C. T. Vidya & K. P. Prabheesh, 2020. "Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Trade Networks," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2408-2421, August.
    18. E. Gutiérrez-Moya & B. Adenso-Díaz & S. Lozano, 2021. "Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Jinyu & Luo, Qian & Sun, Xin & Zhang, Zitao & Dong, Xuesong, 2023. "The impact of renewable energy consumption on lithium trade patterns: An industrial chain perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    2. Yonas T. Bahta & Salomo Mbai, 2023. "Competitiveness of Namibia’s Agri-Food Commodities: Implications for Food Security," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Olexandr Yemelyanov & Tetyana Petrushka & Lilia Lesyk & Anatolii Havryliak & Nataliya Yanevych & Oksana Kurylo & Volodymyr Bodakovskyy & Iryna Skoropad & Taras Danylovych & Kateryna Petrushka, 2023. "Assessing the Sustainability of the Consumption of Agricultural Products with Regard to a Possible Reduction in Its Imports: The Case of Countries That Import Corn and Wheat," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-29, June.
    4. Fang Yang & Chuanxin Zou & Chutong Li, 2023. "The Impact of Carbon Tariffs on China’s Agricultural Trade," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yoon Heo & Nguyen Khanh Doanh, 2020. "Is NAFTA Trade‐Creating or Trade‐Diverting? A System GMM Approach," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(3), pages 222-238, September.
    2. Thomas L. Vollrath & Mark J. Gehlhar & Charles B. Hallahan, 2009. "Bilateral Import Protection, Free Trade Agreements, and Other Factors Influencing Trade Flows in Agriculture and Clothing," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 298-317, June.
    3. Muntasir Murshed & Seemran Rashid, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Responses to Foreign Currency Inflows: Revisiting the Dutch Disease Phenomenon in South Asia," The Economics and Finance Letters, Conscientia Beam, vol. 7(1), pages 23-46.
    4. Jagdambe, Subhash & Kannan, Elumalai, 2020. "Effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement on agricultural trade: The gravity model approach," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    5. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca, 2019. "The Effects of Non‐tariff Measures on Agri‐food Trade: A Review and Meta‐analysis of Empirical Evidence," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 595-617, September.
    6. Pascal L. Ghazalian & Bruno Larue & Jean‐Philippe Gervais, 2009. "Exporting to new destinations and the effects of tariffs: the case of meat commodities," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(6), pages 701-714, November.
    7. Natale, Fabrizio & Borrello, Alessandra & Motova, Arina, 2015. "Analysis of the determinants of international seafood trade using a gravity model," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-106.
    8. Çekyay, Bora & Kabak, Özgür & Ülengin, Füsun & Ulengin, Burç & Toktaş Palut, Peral & Özaydın, Özay, 2020. "A multi-commodity network flow and gravity model integration for analyzing impact of road transport quotas on international trade," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Marilyne Huchet Bourdon & Chantal Le Mouël & Mindourewa Peketi, 2016. "The impact of regional trade agreements on agrifood trade flows: The role of rules of origin," Working Papers SMART 16-08, INRAE UMR SMART.
    10. Liam Pippinato & Simone Blanc & Teresina Mancuso & Filippo Brun, 2020. "A Sustainable Niche Market: How Does Honey Behave?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Luckstead, Jeff, 2022. "Impacts of Bilateral Trade Agreements between the United States and Latin American Countries on Agri-Food Trade," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(3), September.
    12. Eaton, Derek J.F., 2009. "Trade and Intellectual Property Rights in the Agricultural Seed Sector," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51782, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Mihaela KRUZSLICIKA, 2022. "Reaction Of The Cereal Market To The Disruption Of Trade Flows In Romania," Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 219-238.
    14. Zhang, Daowei & Li, Yanshu, 2009. "Forest endowment, logging restrictions, and China's wood products trade," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-53, March.
    15. Jagdambe, S., 2018. "Impact of AIFTA on Agriculture Trade Creation & Trade Diversion: Gravity Model Analysis," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276046, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Emilia Lamonaca, 2022. "Standards and regulatory cooperation in regional trade agreements: What the effects on trade?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1682-1701, December.
    17. Wahyudi Setia Darma & Fithra Faisal Hastiadi, 2017. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement, ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreement, and ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement Implementation on the Export of Indonesia's F," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 51-58.
    18. Vollrath, Thomas L. & Grant, Jason H. & Hallahan, Charles B., 2012. "Reciprocal Trade Agreements: Impacts on U.S. and Foreign Suppliers in Commodity and Manufactured Food Markets," Economic Research Report 131618, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    19. Maria Cipollina & Luca Salvatici, 2022. "The Dark Matter of Bilateral Preferential Margins: An Assessment of the Effect of US Tariffs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, April.
    20. Zhang, Daowei & Nguyen, Ly, 2018. "Tariff and U.S. Paper Products Trade," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266771, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:3:p:361-:d:763267. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.