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International crop trade networks: The impact of shocks and cascades

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  • Rebekka Burkholz
  • Frank Schweitzer

Abstract

Analyzing available FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years, we observe an increase of complexity in the international trade of maize, rice, soy, and wheat. A larger number of countries play a role as producers or intermediaries, either for trade or food processing. In consequence, we find that the trade networks become more prone to failure cascades caused by exogenous shocks. In our model, countries compensate for demand deficits by imposing export restrictions. To capture these, we construct higher-order trade dependency networks for the different crops and years. These networks reveal hidden dependencies between countries and allow to discuss policy implications.

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  • Rebekka Burkholz & Frank Schweitzer, 2019. "International crop trade networks: The impact of shocks and cascades," Papers 1901.05872, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1901.05872
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giordani, Paolo E. & Rocha, Nadia & Ruta, Michele, 2016. "Food prices and the multiplier effect of trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 102-122.
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    4. Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Thomas, Marcelle & Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea, 2000. "Food security and trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization," TMD discussion papers 59, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    2. Yacine Ouahioune, 2023. "Optimal Sub-Saharan and European trade policy response to the use of the food weapon by Russia: do regional taste variations count?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2023-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Ambra Amico & Luca Verginer & Giona Casiraghi & Giacomo Vaccario & Frank Schweitzer, 2023. "Adapting to Disruptions: Flexibility as a Pillar of Supply Chain Resilience," Papers 2304.05290, arXiv.org.
    4. Kang, Xinyu & Wang, Minxi & Chen, Lu & Li, Xin, 2023. "Supply risk propagation of global copper industry chain based on multi-layer complex network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    5. Trucmel Irina-Maria & Vintila Alexandra, 2023. "An Assessment of the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict on the European Cereal Exports Using Network Theory," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 46-62, July.
    6. Yan Zhang & Frank Schweitzer, 2021. "Quantifying the importance of firms by means of reputation and network control," Papers 2101.05010, arXiv.org.
    7. Wang, Xingxing & Li, Huajiao & Zhu, Depeng & Zhong, Weiqiong & Xing, Wanli & Wang, Anjian, 2021. "Research on global natural graphite trade risk countermeasures based on the maximum entropy principle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Mihaela KRUZSLICIKA, 2022. "Reaction Of The Cereal Market To The Disruption Of Trade Flows In Romania," Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 219-238.
    9. Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, 2021. "Identifying agricultural disaster risk zones for future climate actions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Moritz Laber & Peter Klimek & Martin Bruckner & Liuhuaying Yang & Stefan Thurner, 2022. "Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability," Papers 2210.01846, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    11. Kangshun Zhao & Steven D. Gaines & Jorge García Molinos & Min Zhang & Jun Xu, 2024. "Effect of trade on global aquatic food consumption patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Marco Grassia & Giuseppe Mangioni & Stefano Schiavo & Silvio Traverso, 2020. "(Unintended) Consequences of export restrictions on medical goods during the Covid-19 pandemic," Papers 2007.11941, arXiv.org.
    13. Campi, Mercedes & Dueñas, Marco & Fagiolo, Giorgio, 2020. "Specialization in food production, global food security and sustainability," Working papers 30, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    14. Linqing Liu & Weiran Wang & Xiaofei Yan & Mengyun Shen & Haizhi Chen, 2023. "The cascade influence of grain trade shocks on countries in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    15. E. Gutiérrez-Moya & B. Adenso-Díaz & S. Lozano, 2021. "Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, February.
    16. Wang, Chao & Huang, Xia & Hu, Xiaoqian & Zhao, Longfeng & Liu, Chao & Ghadimi, Pezhman, 2021. "Trade characteristics, competition patterns and COVID-19 related shock propagation in the global solar photovoltaic cell trade," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).

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