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Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network

Author

Listed:
  • E. Gutiérrez-Moya

    (Universidad de Sevilla)

  • B. Adenso-Díaz

    (Universidad de Oviedo)

  • S. Lozano

    (Universidad de Sevilla)

Abstract

Wheat is one of the three basic cereals providing the necessary calorific intake for most of the world’s population. For this reason, its trade is critical to many countries in order to fulfil their internal demand and strategic stocks. In this paper, we use complex network analysis tools to study the international wheat trade network and its evolving characteristics for the period 2009–2013. To understand the vulnerability of each country’s dependence on the imports of this crop we have performed different analyses, simulating shocks of varying intensities for the main wheat producers, and observed the population affected by the production drop. As a result, we conclude that globally the network is slightly more resilient than four years previously, although at the same time some developing countries have slipped into a vulnerable situation. We have also analysed the effects of a global shock affecting all major producers, assessing its impact on every country. Some comments on the COVID-19 outbreak and the political decisions taken by governments following the pandemic declaration are included, observing that given their capital-intensive characteristics, no negative effects should currently be expected in the wheat market.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Gutiérrez-Moya & B. Adenso-Díaz & S. Lozano, 2021. "Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:13:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s12571-020-01117-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-020-01117-9
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gheorghe Cristian Popescu & Monica Popescu, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and agriculture in Romania: effects on agricultural systems, compliance with restrictions and relations with authorities," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(2), pages 557-567, April.
    3. Mihaela KRUZSLICIKA, 2022. "Reaction Of The Cereal Market To The Disruption Of Trade Flows In Romania," Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 219-238.
    4. Qingru Sun & Meiyi Hou & Shuaiwei Shi & Liwei Cui & Zenglei Xi, 2022. "The Influence of Country Risks on the International Agricultural Trade Patterns Based on Network Analysis and Panel Data Method," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, March.
    5. Jian Li & Ping Qing & Wuyang Hu & Minglai Li, 2022. "Contract farming, community effect, and farmer valuation of biofortified crop varieties in China: The case of high‐zinc wheat," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 1035-1055, May.
    6. Linqing Liu & Weiran Wang & Xiaofei Yan & Mengyun Shen & Haizhi Chen, 2023. "The cascade influence of grain trade shocks on countries in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Ismail Bulent Gurbuz & Irfan Kadioglu, 2023. "Grain Production in Turkey and Its Environmental Drivers Using ARDL in the Age of Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Petra Hellegers, 2022. "Food security vulnerability due to trade dependencies on Russia and Ukraine," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(6), pages 1503-1510, December.
    9. Katrine Soma & Wil Hennen & Siemen van Berkum, 2023. "Can Domestic Food Production Provide Future Urban Populations with Food and Nutrition Security?—Insights from Bangladesh, Kenya and Uganda," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-23, June.

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