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Oil and macro-financial linkages: Evidence from the GCC countries

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  • Ibrahim, Mansor H.

Abstract

We assess potential roles of recent oil price swings in macro – financial linkages for the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using bank-level panel data from 2000 – 2016. Employing both dynamic panel and panel VAR modelling, we document evidence indicating significant implications of oil price changes on the GCC financial and real sectors and significant macro – financial linkages. The results are robust in suggesting favourable effects of positive oil price changes on bank profitability, credit growth and output growth. Likewise, we document robust evidence indicating immediate contraction in credit growth, deterioration in credit quality and decline in economic growth following negative oil price changes. We also note that the implications of oil price changes tend to be felt more strongly by small banks. Finally, we find substantial causal interactions between output growth and bank variables, notable of which are robust findings of significant responses of (i) credit growth and bank profitability to business cycle and (ii) business cycle to credit quality. With the documented roles of oil prices on macro-financial linkages, the oil market developments should be monitored closely and, in anticipation of oil price drops, attention should be given to maintaining lending activity as well as safeguarding banks’ financial soundness such that the contraction of real activity can be contained.

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  • Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2019. "Oil and macro-financial linkages: Evidence from the GCC countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:72:y:2019:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2019.01.014
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    2. Ma, Yechi & Chen, Zhiguo & Shinwari, Riazullah & Khan, Zeeshan, 2021. "Financialization, globalization, and Dutch disease: Is Dutch disease exist for resources rich countries?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2022. "Bank Financial Stability and International Oil Prices: Evidence from Listed Russian Public Banks," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(3), pages 217-246, May.
    4. Teck-Lee Wong & Wee-Yeap Lau & Tien-Ming Yip, 2020. "Cashless Payments and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected OECD Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 189-213.
    5. Elder, John, 2020. "Employment and energy uncertainty," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    6. Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2021. "Do oil and gas prices influence economic policy uncertainty differently: Multi-country evidence using time-frequency approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 397-420.
    7. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The effect of structural oil shocks on bank systemic risk in the GCC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Nasim, Asma & Downing, Gareth, 2023. "Energy shocks and bank performance in the advanced economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
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    10. Claudiu Albulescu, 2020. "Bank financial stability, bank valuation and international oil prices: Evidence from listed Russian public banks," Papers 2004.12791, arXiv.org.
    11. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Oil structural shocks, bank-level characteristics, and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    12. Zhang, Jialin & Shi, Shaodong, 2023. "Extraction of natural resources and geopolitical risk revisited: A novel perspective of research and development with financial development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
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    14. Hassan, M. Kabir & Kamran, Muhammad & Djajadikerta, Hadrian Geri & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2022. "Search for safe havens and resilience to global financial volatility: Response of GCC equity indexes to GFC and Covid-19," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Macro-financial linkages; Dynamic panel; Panel VAR; GCC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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