IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v72y2019icp1-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil and macro-financial linkages: Evidence from the GCC countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ibrahim, Mansor H.

Abstract

We assess potential roles of recent oil price swings in macro – financial linkages for the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using bank-level panel data from 2000 – 2016. Employing both dynamic panel and panel VAR modelling, we document evidence indicating significant implications of oil price changes on the GCC financial and real sectors and significant macro – financial linkages. The results are robust in suggesting favourable effects of positive oil price changes on bank profitability, credit growth and output growth. Likewise, we document robust evidence indicating immediate contraction in credit growth, deterioration in credit quality and decline in economic growth following negative oil price changes. We also note that the implications of oil price changes tend to be felt more strongly by small banks. Finally, we find substantial causal interactions between output growth and bank variables, notable of which are robust findings of significant responses of (i) credit growth and bank profitability to business cycle and (ii) business cycle to credit quality. With the documented roles of oil prices on macro-financial linkages, the oil market developments should be monitored closely and, in anticipation of oil price drops, attention should be given to maintaining lending activity as well as safeguarding banks’ financial soundness such that the contraction of real activity can be contained.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2019. "Oil and macro-financial linkages: Evidence from the GCC countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:72:y:2019:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2019.01.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976918301571
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Mishkin, Frederic, 1999. "Financial consolidation: Dangers and opportunities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 675-691, February.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Altunbas, Yener & Binici, Mahir & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2018. "Macroprudential policy and bank risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 203-220.
    4. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    5. Micco, Alejandro & Panizza, Ugo, 2006. "Bank ownership and lending behavior," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 248-254, November.
    6. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Matthaios D., 2008. "Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-136, April.
    7. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    8. repec:cii:cepiei:2014-q3-139-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
    10. Love, Inessa & Turk Ariss, Rima, 2014. "Macro-financial linkages in Egypt: A panel analysis of economic shocks and loan portfolio quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 158-181.
    11. Wu, Ji & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam & Wang, Rui, 2017. "Does foreign bank penetration affect the risk of domestic banks? Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 45-61.
    12. Tran, Vuong Thao & Lin, Chien-Ting & Nguyen, Hoa, 2016. "Liquidity creation, regulatory capital, and bank profitability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 98-109.
    13. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1133-1154, November.
    14. Padamja Khandelwal & Ken Miyajima & Andre O Santos, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC," IMF Working Papers 16/161, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Bruno Coric, 2011. "The financial accelerator effect: concept and challenges," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 171-196.
    16. Cull, Robert & Martínez Pería, María Soledad, 2013. "Bank ownership and lending patterns during the 2008–2009 financial crisis: Evidence from Latin America and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4861-4878.
    17. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    18. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Mollah, Sabur & Zaman, Mahbub, 2015. "Shari’ah supervision, corporate governance and performance: Conventional vs. Islamic banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 418-435.
    20. Bertay, Ata Can & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2015. "Bank ownership and credit over the business cycle: Is lending by state banks less procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 326-339.
    21. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2015. "Asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 108-133.
    22. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    23. Al-Khouri, Ritab & Arouri, Houda, 2016. "The simultaneous estimation of credit growth, valuation, and stability of the Gulf Cooperation Council banking industry," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 499-518.
    24. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Mirzaei, Ali, 2017. "The impact of oil price movements on bank non-performing loans: Global evidence from oil-exporting countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 193-208.
    25. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    26. Bitar, Mohammad & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Walker, Thomas, 2018. "The effect of capital ratios on the risk, efficiency and profitability of banks: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 227-262.
    27. Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2016. "Business cycle and bank lending procyclicality in a dual banking system," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 127-134.
    28. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2017. "Do we need bigger Islamic banks? An assessment of bank stability," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 77-91.
    29. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2016. "Deflation, bank credit growth, and non-performing loans: Evidence from Japan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 295-305.
    30. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    31. Aasim M. Husain & Rabah Arezki & Peter Breuer & Vikram Haksar & Thomas Helbling & Paulo A Medas & Martin Sommer, 2015. "Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/15, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Adhikari, Binay Kumar & Agrawal, Anup, 2016. "Does local religiosity matter for bank risk-taking?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 272-293.
    33. Shim, Jeungbo, 2013. "Bank capital buffer and portfolio risk: The influence of business cycle and revenue diversification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 761-772.
    34. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    35. Chau H. A. Le, 2016. "Macro-financial linkages and bank behaviour: evidence from the second-round effects of the global financial crisis on East Asia," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(3), pages 365-387, December.
    36. Olson, Dennis & Zoubi, Taisier, 2017. "Convergence in bank performance for commercial and Islamic banks during and after the Global Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 71-87.
    37. Coleman, Nicholas & Feler, Leo, 2015. "Bank ownership, lending, and local economic performance during the 2008–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 50-66.
    38. Nusair, Salah A., 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on the economies of the Gulf Co-operation Council countries: Nonlinear analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 256-267.
    39. Aydemir, Resul & Guloglu, Bulent, 2017. "How do banks determine their spreads under credit and liquidity risks during business cycles?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 147-157.
    40. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Macro-financial linkages; Dynamic panel; Panel VAR; GCC;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:72:y:2019:i:c:p:1-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.