IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v238y2025ics0167268125003221.html

Social security and female labor supply in China

Author

Listed:
  • Gao, Han

Abstract

I develop a dynamic model of female labor supply, featuring human capital accumulation and intergenerational time transfer in the form of grandparental child care, to study how raising urban Chinese women’s social security eligibility age would affect their employment, human capital, and earnings. I find the policy reform encourages labor supply of older women but discourages labor supply of low-skilled young women with children as a result of children’s grandmothers working more and providing less child care. Furthermore, the effectiveness of policy in stimulating the labor supply and earnings of women depends on the degree of labor market frictions facing old age women after the policy change.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Han, 2025. "Social security and female labor supply in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:238:y:2025:i:c:s0167268125003221
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268125003221
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107203?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sumru Altuğ & Robert A. Miller, 1998. "The Effect of Work Experience on Female Wages and Labour Supply," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(1), pages 45-85.
    2. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Female Labor Supply, Human Capital, and Welfare Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1705-1753, September.
    3. Hare, Denise, 2016. "What accounts for the decline in labor force participation among married women in urban China, 1991–2011?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-266.
    4. Alexander Bick, 2016. "The Quantitative Role Of Child Care For Female Labor Force Participation And Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 639-668, June.
    5. Deng, Yuanyuan & Fang, Hanming & Hanewald, Katja & Wu, Shang, 2023. "Delay the Pension Age or Adjust the Pension Benefit? Implications for Labor Supply and Individual Welfare in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1192-1215.
    6. Sagiri KITAO & Minamo MIKOSHIBA, 2022. "Why Women Work the Way They Do in Japan: Roles of Fiscal Policies," Discussion papers 22016, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Eva Garcia-Moran & Zoe Kuehn, 2017. "With Strings Attached: Grandparent-Provided Child Care and Female Labor Market Outcomes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 80-98, January.
    8. Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao & Moffitt, Robert, 2017. "Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 304-324.
    9. Alexander Bick & Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, 2018. "Taxation and Labour Supply of Married Couples across Countries: A Macroeconomic Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1543-1576.
    10. Zvi Eckstein & Michael Keane & Osnat Lifshitz, 2019. "Career and Family Decisions: Cohorts Born 1935–1975," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 217-253, January.
    11. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333.
    12. Eibich, Peter & Siedler, Thomas, 2020. "Retirement, intergenerational time transfers, and fertility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2010. "The Role Of Labor And Marriage Markets, Preference Heterogeneity, And The Welfare System In The Life Cycle Decisions Of Black, Hispanic, And White Women," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 851-892, August.
    14. Lee, Hyun & Zhao, Kai & Zou, Fei, 2022. "Does the early retirement policy really benefit women?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 330-345.
    15. Hanming Fang & Jin Feng, 2018. "The Chinese Pension System," NBER Working Papers 25088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Zvi Eckstein & Osnat Lifshitz, 2011. "Dynamic Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1675-1726, November.
    17. Manasi Deshpande & Itzik Fadlon & Colin Gray, 2024. "How Sticky Is Retirement Behavior in the United States?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 370-383, March.
    18. Blau, David M, 1993. "The Supply of Child Care Labor," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(2), pages 324-347, April.
    19. Ribar, David C, 1995. "A Structural Model of Child Care and the Labor Supply of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(3), pages 558-597, July.
    20. Rupert, Peter & Zanella, Giulio, 2018. "Grandchildren and their grandparents' labor supply," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 89-103.
    21. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2007. "Exploring The Usefulness Of A Nonrandom Holdout Sample For Model Validation: Welfare Effects On Female Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1351-1378, November.
    22. Li, Yunrong, 2017. "The effects of formal and informal child care on the Mother's labor supply—Evidence from urban China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 227-240.
    23. Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1989. "Dynamic Labour Force Participation of Married Women and Endogenous Work Experience," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 375-390.
    24. Staubli, Stefan & Zweimüller, Josef, 2013. "Does raising the early retirement age increase employment of older workers?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 17-32.
    25. Massimiliano Bratti & Tommaso Frattini & Francesco Scervini, 2018. "Grandparental availability for child care and maternal labor force participation: pension reform evidence from Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 1239-1277, October.
    26. Yu, Jihai & Zhu, Guozhong, 2013. "How uncertain is household income in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 74-78.
    27. Müller, Kai-Uwe & Wrohlich, Katharina, 2020. "Does subsidized care for toddlers increase maternal labor supply? Evidence from a large-scale expansion of early childcare," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    28. Luisa Fuster & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu, 2007. "Elimination of Social Security in a Dynastic Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 113-145.
    29. Nezih Guner & Remzi Kaygusuz & Gustavo Ventura, 2020. "Child-Related Transfers, Household Labour Supply, and Welfare," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(5), pages 2290-2321.
    30. Kadir Atalay & Garry F. Barrett, 2015. "The Impact of Age Pension Eligibility Age on Retirement and Program Dependence: Evidence from an Australian Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 71-87, March.
    31. Bairoliya, Neha & Miller, Ray, 2021. "Social insurance, demographics, and rural-urban migration in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    32. Yang, Fang, 2013. "Social security reform with impure intergenerational altruism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 52-67.
    33. Emanuela Cardia & Serena Ng, 2003. "Intergenerational Time Transfers and Childcare," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 431-454, April.
    34. Li, Yue, 2018. "Paradoxical effects of increasing the normal retirement age: A prospective evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 512-527.
    35. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2017. "The Career Costs of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 293-337.
    36. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Yikai Wang & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2015. "Sharing High Growth across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-39, April.
    37. Jung, Juergen & Tran, Chung, 2012. "The extension of social security coverage in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 439-458.
    38. Margaret Maurer-Fazio & Rachel Connelly & Lan Chen & Lixin Tang, 2011. "Childcare, Eldercare, and Labor Force Participation of Married Women in Urban China, 1982–2000," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(2), pages 261-294.
    39. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Rising Wage Inequality in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(4), pages 681-722, August.
    40. Nicola Bianchi & Giulia Bovini & Jin Li & Matteo Paradisi & Michael Powell, 2023. "Career Spillovers in Internal Labour Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(4), pages 1800-1831.
    41. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009. "Delaying Retirement in Spain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January.
    42. Hui He & Lei Ning & Dongming Zhu, 2019. "The Impact of Rapid Aging and Pension Reform on Savings and the Labor Supply," IMF Working Papers 2019/061, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Jin Feng & Xiaohan Zhang, 2018. "Retirement and Grandchild Care in Urban China," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 240-264, April.
    44. Laitner, John, 1992. "Random earnings differences, lifetime liquidity constraints, and altruistic intergenerational transfers," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 135-170, December.
    45. Havnes, Tarjei & Mogstad, Magne, 2011. "Money for nothing? Universal child care and maternal employment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1455-1465.
    46. Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Fang Yang, 2023. "Are Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits Holding Back Female Labour Supply?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 102-131.
    47. Feng, Jin & He, Lixin & Sato, Hiroshi, 2011. "Public pension and household saving: Evidence from urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 470-485.
    48. Iskhakov, Fedor & Keane, Michael, 2021. "Effects of taxes and safety net pensions on life-cycle labor supply, savings and human capital: The case of Australia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 401-432.
    49. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.
    50. Paul Mohnen, 2025. "The Impact of the Retirement Slowdown on the US Youth Labor Market," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(1), pages 203-246.
    51. Xiaodong Fan & Ananth Seshadri & Christopher Taber, 2024. "Estimation of a Life-Cycle Model with Human Capital, Labor Supply, and Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(1), pages 48-95.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Han & Lu, Bei, 2025. "Reforming China’s public pension system: Fiscal sustainability and the challenge of formality-based inequality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gao, Han & Lu, Bei, 2025. "Reforming China’s public pension system: Fiscal sustainability and the challenge of formality-based inequality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Hanna Wang, 2025. "Fertility and Family Leave Policies in Germany: Optimal Policy Design in a Dynamic Framework," Working Papers 1507, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Chen, Yanran & Lyu, Youji, 2025. "Grandchild care and grandparents’ labor supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Garrett Anstreicher & Joanna Venator, 2022. "To Grandmother’s House We Go: Childcare Time Transfers and Female Labor Mobility," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1051, Boston College Department of Economics.
    5. Rania Gihleb & Osnat Lifshitz, 2022. "Dynamic Effects of Educational Assortative Mating on Labor Supply," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 302-327, October.
    6. Huber, Katrin, 2019. "The role of the career costs of children for the effect of public child care on fertility and maternal employment," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-77-19, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    7. Das, Debasmita, 2022. "Child-rearing, Social Security and Married Women’s Labor Supply over the Life Cycle," MPRA Paper 117614, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Sep 2022.
    8. Ilciukas, Julius, 2023. "Fertility and parental retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    9. Katrin Huber & Geske Rolvering, 2023. "Public child care and mothers’ career trajectories," Working Papers 228, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    10. Pelin Akyol & Zeynep Yılmaz, 2024. "Effects of Grandmothers' Proximity on Mothers' Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(5), pages 1122-1162, October.
    11. Zvi Eckstein & Michael Keane & Osnat Lifshitz, 2019. "Career and Family Decisions: Cohorts Born 1935–1975," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 217-253, January.
    12. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2017. "The Career Costs of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 293-337.
    13. Hassani Nezhad, Lena, 2020. "Female Employment and Childcare," IZA Discussion Papers 13839, IZA Network @ LISER.
    14. Robert M. Sauer & Christopher Taber, 2021. "Understanding women's wage growth using indirect inference with importance sampling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 453-473, June.
    15. Mike Brewer & Monica Costa Dias & Jonathan Shaw, 2012. "Lifetime inequality and redistribution," IFS Working Papers W12/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Osuna Victoria, 2021. "Subsidising Formal Childcare Versus Grandmothers' Time: Which Policy is More Effective?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 85-111, January.
    17. Eckstein, Zvi & Keane, Michael P. & Lifshitz, Osnat, 2023. "What Explains the Growing Gender Education Gap? The Effects of Parental Background, the Labor Market and the Marriage Market on College Attainment," IZA Discussion Papers 16612, IZA Network @ LISER.
    18. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2017. "Family Economics Writ Large," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1346-1434, December.
    19. Turon, Hélène, 2022. "The Labour Supply of Mothers," IZA Discussion Papers 15312, IZA Network @ LISER.
    20. Sauer, Robert M. & Taber, Christopher, 2017. "Indirect Inference with Importance Sampling: An Application to Women's Wage Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11004, IZA Network @ LISER.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:238:y:2025:i:c:s0167268125003221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.