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Uncertainty, systemic shocks and the global banking sector: Has the crisis modified their relationship?

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  • Uribe, Jorge M.
  • Chuliá, Helena
  • Guillén, Montserrat

Abstract

We estimate the impact of equity market uncertainty and an unobservable systemic risk factor on the returns of the major banks in the global banking sector. Our estimation combines quantile regressions, structural changes, and factor models and allows us to explore the stability of systemic risk propagation among financial institutions. We find that risk propagation has remained stable over the last decade, and we report evidence indicating that equity market uncertainty is a major systemic factor for the global banking system. Additionally, we provide a new simple tool for measuring the resilience of financial institutions to systemic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Uribe, Jorge M. & Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat, 2017. "Uncertainty, systemic shocks and the global banking sector: Has the crisis modified their relationship?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 52-68.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:52-68
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2017.09.027
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    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Uncertainty; Global banking; Quantile breaks;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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