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Economic policy uncertainty and industry risk on China’s stock market

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  • Wang, Jie
  • Xue, Weina
  • Song, Jiashan

Abstract

We propose a dynamic mixture Copula with time-varying weight, which is endowed with generalized autoregressive score dynamics. Based on this model, we portray the lower-tail dependence between the return of WIND first-level industry and CSI-300 index as a proxy variable for the industry risk in China’s stock market, and use the VAR-GARCH-in-mean model based on BEKK-GARCH to deconstruct the different impact of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on industry risk of the first and second moments in terms of four policy categories, namely fiscal policy, monetary policy, trade policy, and foreign exchange rate and capital account policy. The results are followed. Firstly, the risk of Consumer Discretionary is averagely the highest, while the risk of Utilities remains the lowest. Secondly, category-specific EPU has no significant mean spillover to the risk of overall industries, while the variance spillover is significant for all the cases. Thirdly, except for Real Estate, the GARCH-in-mean effect is not significant of EPU on industry risks. Further more, all those three kinds of impact show industrial heterogeneities. To avoid systemic risks, we advise that the issue of economic policy should be forward-looking, consistent, and targeted, especially for sensitive industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jie & Xue, Weina & Song, Jiashan, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and industry risk on China’s stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:62:y:2022:i:c:s1062940822001127
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2022.101771
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ren, Xiaohang & liu, Ziqing & Jin, Chenglu & Lin, Ruya, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty and enterprise total factor productivity: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 201-218.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; Industry risk; Spillover effects; Copula; GARCH-in-mean;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • L88 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Government Policy

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