The price of policy risk — Empirical insights from choice experiments with European photovoltaic project developers
Managing the transition to a renewable energy future is an important policy priority in many countries. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is expected to make an essential contribution, but due to relatively high cost, its growth to date has been largely driven by public policy, notably feed-in tariffs. Feed-in tariffs have been implemented in various countries, but with widely differing outcomes in terms of installed PV capacity. Previous research indicates that the level of policy risk may be an important driver for differences in renewable energy policy effectiveness. This paper suggests that project developers who make a decision between PV investment opportunities in different countries carefully weigh feed-in tariff-induced returns against a set of policy risks, and choose the country with the most favorable risk-return profile. This model is empirically tested by a stated preference survey among European PV project developers, consisting of 1575 choice decisions by 63 investors. The findings demonstrate that risk matters in PV policy design, and that a “price tag” can be attached to specific policy risks, such as the duration of administrative processes or uncertainty induced by an approaching capacity cap. Governments can build on these empirical results to design policies that will be effective in attracting private PV investment, while at the same time maintaining efficiency by providing an adequate compensation for policy risk.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Butler, Lucy & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2008.
"Comparison of feed-in tariff, quota and auction mechanisms to support wind power development,"
Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1854-1867.
- Butler, L. & Neuhoff, K., 2005. "Comparison of Feed in Tariff, Quota and Auction Mechanisms to Support Wind Power Development," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Train, Kenneth & Wilson, Wesley W., 2008. "Estimation on stated-preference experiments constructed from revealed-preference choices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 191-203, March.
- Wustenhagen, Rolf & Bilharz, Michael, 2006. "Green energy market development in Germany: effective public policy and emerging customer demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(13), pages 1681-1696, September.
- Daniel McFadden, 1986. "The Choice Theory Approach to Market Research," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 275-297.
- Farber, Stephen & Griner, Brian, 2000. "Valuing watershed quality improvements using conjoint analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 63-76, July.
- Masini, Andrea & Menichetti, Emanuela, 2012. "The impact of behavioural factors in the renewable energy investment decision making process: Conceptual framework and empirical findings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 28-38.
- Lipp, Judith, 2007. "Lessons for effective renewable electricity policy from Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5481-5495, November.
- Wüstenhagen, Rolf & Menichetti, Emanuela, 2012. "Strategic choices for renewable energy investment: Conceptual framework and opportunities for further research," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-10.
- Jensen, S. G. & Skytte, K., 2002. "Interactions between the power and green certificate markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 425-435, April.
- Ahn, Jiwoon & Jeong, Gicheol & Kim, Yeonbae, 2008. "A forecast of household ownership and use of alternative fuel vehicles: A multiple discrete-continuous choice approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2091-2104, September.
- Peter E. Rossi & Greg M. Allenby, 2003. "Bayesian Statistics and Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 304-328, July.
- Burtraw, Dallas & Palmer, Karen, 2005.
"Cost-Effectiveness of Renewable Electricity Policies,"
dp-05-01, Resources For the Future.
- Palmer, Karen & Burtraw, Dallas, 2005. "Cost-effectiveness of renewable electricity policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 873-894, November.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521747387 is not listed on IDEAS
- Clark-Murphy, Marilyn & Soutar, Geoffrey N., 2004. "What individual investors value: Some Australian evidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 539-555, August.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521766555 is not listed on IDEAS
- Verbruggen, Aviel, 2004. "Tradable green certificates in Flanders (Belgium)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 165-176, January.
- Roe, Brian & Boyle, Kevin J. & Teisl, Mario F., 1996. "Using Conjoint Analysis to Derive Estimates of Compensating Variation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 145-159, September.
- Chattopadhyay, Sudip, 2009. "The random expenditure function approach to welfare in RUM: The case of hazardous waste clean-up," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 58-74, January.
- Amundsen, Eirik S. & Mortensen, Jorgen Birk, 2001. "The Danish Green Certificate System: some simple analytical results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 489-509, September.
- Moxnes, Erling, 2004. "Estimating customer utility of energy efficiency standards for refrigerators," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 707-724, December.
- Wustenhagen, Rolf & Wolsink, Maarten & Burer, Mary Jean, 2007. "Social acceptance of renewable energy innovation: An introduction to the concept," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2683-2691, May.
- Gross, Robert & Blyth, William & Heptonstall, Philip, 2010. "Risks, revenues and investment in electricity generation: Why policy needs to look beyond costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 796-804, July.
- Ringel, Marc, 2006. "Fostering the use of renewable energies in the European Union: the race between feed-in tariffs and green certificates," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-17.
- Jacobsson, Staffan & Lauber, Volkmar, 2006. "The politics and policy of energy system transformation--explaining the German diffusion of renewable energy technology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 256-276, February.
- Menanteau, Philippe & Finon, Dominique & Lamy, Marie-Laure, 2003. "Prices versus quantities: choosing policies for promoting the development of renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 799-812, June.
- Boxall, Peter C. & Adamowicz, Wiktor L. & Swait, Joffre & Williams, Michael & Louviere, Jordan, 1996. "A comparison of stated preference methods for environmental valuation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 243-253, September.
- Dinica, Valentina, 2006. "Support systems for the diffusion of renewable energy technologies--an investor perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 461-480, March.
- Peter J. Lenk & Wayne S. DeSarbo & Paul E. Green & Martin R. Young, 1996. "Hierarchical Bayes Conjoint Analysis: Recovery of Partworth Heterogeneity from Reduced Experimental Designs," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 173-191.
- Mitchell, C. & Bauknecht, D. & Connor, P.M., 2006. "Effectiveness through risk reduction: a comparison of the renewable obligation in England and Wales and the feed-in system in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-305, February.
- Toke, David & Breukers, Sylvia & Wolsink, Maarten, 2008. "Wind power deployment outcomes: How can we account for the differences?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 1129-1147, May.
- Joel Slemrod, 1992.
"Do Taxes Matter? Lessons From the 1980s,"
NBER Working Papers
4008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glenn, H. & Wattage, P. & Mardle, S. & Rensburg, T. Van & Grehan, A. & Foley, N., 2010. "Marine protected areas--substantiating their worth," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 421-430, May.
- Silvia Banfi & Mehdi Farsi & Massimo Filippini & Martin Jakob, 2005.
"Willingness to Pay for Energy-Saving Measures in Residential Buildings,"
CEPE Working paper series
05-41, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Banfi, Silvia & Farsi, Mehdi & Filippini, Massimo & Jakob, Martin, 2008. "Willingness to pay for energy-saving measures in residential buildings," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 503-516, March.
- Verhaegen, Karolien & Meeus, Leonardo & Belmans, Ronnie, 2009. "Towards an international tradable green certificate system--The challenging example of Belgium," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 208-215, January.
- Poortinga, Wouter & Steg, Linda & Vlek, Charles & Wiersma, Gerwin, 2003. "Household preferences for energy-saving measures: A conjoint analysis," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 49-64, February.
- Rowlands, Ian H., 2005. "Envisaging feed-in tariffs for solar photovoltaic electricity: European lessons for Canada," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 51-68, February.
- Frondel, Manuel & Ritter, Nolan & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2008.
"Germany's solar cell promotion: Dark clouds on the horizon,"
Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4198-4204, November.
- Manuel Frondel & Nolan Ritter & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2008. "Germany's Solar Cell Promotion: Dark Clouds on the Horizon," Ruhr Economic Papers 0040, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Bergek, Anna & Jacobsson, Staffan, 2010. "Are tradable green certificates a cost-efficient policy driving technical change or a rent-generating machine? Lessons from Sweden 2003-2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1255-1271, March.
- Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132.
- Amundsen, E.S. & Mortensen, J.B., 2001. "The Danish Green Certificate System: Some Simple Analytical Results," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 226, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
- Ropenus, Stephanie & Jensen, Stine Grenaa, 2009. "Support schemes and vertical integration--Who skims the cream?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1104-1115, March.
- Oded Netzer & Olivier Toubia & Eric Bradlow & Ely Dahan & Theodoros Evgeniou & Fred Feinberg & Eleanor Feit & Sam Hui & Joseph Johnson & John Liechty & James Orlin & Vithala Rao, 2008. "Beyond conjoint analysis: Advances in preference measurement," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 337-354, December.
- Breukers, Sylvia & Wolsink, Maarten, 2007. "Wind power implementation in changing institutional landscapes: An international comparison," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2737-2750, May.
- Hensher, David A., 2010. "Hypothetical bias, choice experiments and willingness to pay," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 735-752, July.
- Jacobsson, Staffan & Bergek, Anna & Finon, Dominique & Lauber, Volkmar & Mitchell, Catherine & Toke, David & Verbruggen, Aviel, 2009. "EU renewable energy support policy: Faith or facts?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2143-2146, June.
- Casey, James F. & Kahn, James R. & Rivas, Alexandre A.F., 2008. "Willingness to accept compensation for the environmental risks of oil transport on the Amazon: A choice modeling experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 552-559, November.
- Wiser, Ryan H. & Pickle, Steven J., 1998. "Financing investments in renewable energy : the impacts of policy design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 361-386, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:4:p:1001-1011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.