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Twin Peaks: Covid-19 and the labor market

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  • Bradley, Jake
  • Ruggieri, Alessandro
  • Spencer, Adam Hal

Abstract

This paper develops a choice-theoretic equilibrium model of the labor market in the presence of a pandemic. It includes heterogeneity in productivity, age and the ability to work from home. Worker and firm behavior changes in the presence of the virus, which itself has equilibrium consequences for the infection rate. The model is calibrated to the UK and counterfactual lockdown measures are evaluated. We find a different response in both the evolution of the virus and the labor market with different lockdown policies. A laissez-faire approach results in lives lost and acts as negative shock to the economy. A lockdown policy, absent any other intervention, will reduce the lives lost but increase the economic burden. Consistent with recent evidence, we find that the economic costs from lockdown are most felt by those earning the least. Finally, we introduce a job retention scheme as implemented by the UK Government and find that it spreads the economic hardship more equitably.

Suggested Citation

  • Bradley, Jake & Ruggieri, Alessandro & Spencer, Adam Hal, 2021. "Twin Peaks: Covid-19 and the labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:138:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121001653
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103828
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    Cited by:

    1. Bauer, Anja & Weber, Enzo, 2021. "Lockdown length and strength: labour-market effects in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242452, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Regina Pleninger & Sina Streicher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2022. "Do COVID-19 containment measures work? Evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-24, December.
    3. Vanda Almeida & Salvador Barrios & Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Alberto Tumino & Wouter Wielen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 413-431, September.
    4. Diaz, Antonia & Dolado, Juan J. & Jáñez, Álvaro & Wellschmied, Felix, 2024. "Labor Reallocation Effects of Furlough Schemes: Evidence from Two Recessions in Spain," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302350, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Ying-Hui & Lin, Shih-Yuan, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on city-center and suburban housing markets: Evidence from Hangzhou, China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Aleem, Majid & Sufyan, Muhammad & Ameer, Irfan & Mustak, Mekhail, 2023. "Remote work and the COVID-19 pandemic: An artificial intelligence-based topic modeling and a future agenda," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Luciana C. Fiorini & Wilfredo L. Maldonado, 2022. "Labor Supply in Pandemics Environments: An Aggregative Games Approach," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    8. Ali Zarifhonarvar, 2023. "A Survey on the Impact of Covid-19 on the Labor Market," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, 03-2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; SIR model; Search and matching; Lockdown; Furlough;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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