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The Optimal Time to Remove Quarantine Bans Under Uncertainty: The Case of Australian Bananas

Author

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  • ANKE LEROUX
  • DONALD MACLAREN

Abstract

Import restrictions on biological materials are used widely as protection against exotic invasive pests and pathogens. While a scientific risk assessment is needed to justify an import ban under the WTO SPS Agreement, economics plays little role in determining the choice of import regime. Using a real option framework, we model the uncertain and irreversible costs from lifting an import ban and derive decision rules about the optimal timing, when ex ante research and development yields positive but uncertain benefits. The insights gained are applied to Australia's current import policy for bananas.

Suggested Citation

  • Anke Leroux & Donald Maclaren, 2011. "The Optimal Time to Remove Quarantine Bans Under Uncertainty: The Case of Australian Bananas," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 140-152, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:87:y:2011:i:276:p:140-152
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2010.00690.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James, Sallie & Anderson, Kym, 1998. "On the need for more economic assessment of quarantine/SPS policies," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(4), pages 1-20.
    2. J. D. Mumford, 2002. "Economic issues related to quarantine in international trade," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 329-348, July.
    3. Perrings, Charles, 2005. "Mitigation and adaptation strategies for the control of biological invasions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 315-325, February.
    4. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    5. Clements, Kenneth W., 2008. "Price elasticities of demand are minus one-half," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 490-493, June.
    6. Costello, Christopher & Springborn, Michael & McAusland, Carol & Solow, Andrew, 2007. "Unintended biological invasions: Does risk vary by trading partner?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 262-276, November.
    7. McAusland, Carol & Costello, Christopher, 2004. "Avoiding invasives: trade-related policies for controlling unintentional exotic species introductions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 954-977, September.
    8. Abdalla, Ali & Sheales, Terry, 2005. "Approximating supply response of a commodity with limited input data: The case of Australian bananas," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137736, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    9. Mérel, Pierre R. & Carter, Colin A., 2008. "A second look at managing import risk from invasive species," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 286-290, November.
    10. Shogren, Jason F. & Tschirhart, John, 2005. "Integrating ecology and economics to address bioinvasions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 267-271, February.
    11. Christopher Costello & Carol McAusland, 2003. "Protectionism, Trade, and Measures of Damage from Exotic Species Introductions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 964-975.
    12. Saphores, Jean-Daniel M. & Shogren, Jason F., 2005. "Managing exotic pests under uncertainty: optimal control actions and bioeconomic investigations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 327-339, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adamson, David & Cook, David, 2007. "Re-examining economic options for import risk assessments," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 149869, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    2. Ko, Chia Chiun & Frijters, Paul, 2014. "When Banana Import Restrictions Lead to Exports: A Tale of Cyclones and Quarantine Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 7988, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Ederington,Josh & Ruta,Michele, 2016. "Non-tariff measures and the world trading system," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7661, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    D81 ; F14 ; F18 ;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment

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