IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jageco/v61y2010i1p97-121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the Risks Associated with the Increased Importation of Fresh Produce from Emerging Supply Sources Outside the EU to the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Mwebaze
  • Jim Monaghan
  • Nicola Spence
  • Alan MacLeod
  • Martin Hare
  • Brian Revell

Abstract

The risk of non‐indigenous plant pests entering the UK via international trade in fresh produce is increasing. The objective of this article is to identify existing and emerging supply sources for UK fresh produce importers and examine the extent to which they could provide invasion pathways. We tested the hypothesis that increased imports of fresh produce from new sources outside the European Union could increase the risks of non‐indigenous insect pests. We use a bio‐economic model approach in which the number of species arrivals is a function of the volume of imports, whereas the volume of imports itself is a function of gross domestic product, relative import prices and seasonality. The study has identified clear trends, which show import volumes of fresh produce and species detections increasing from new supply sources. If this trend continues in the future, then the UK inspection agency should expect to confront species from new suppliers in much greater numbers, given that import volumes of fresh produce are income elastic.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Mwebaze & Jim Monaghan & Nicola Spence & Alan MacLeod & Martin Hare & Brian Revell, 2010. "Modelling the Risks Associated with the Increased Importation of Fresh Produce from Emerging Supply Sources Outside the EU to the UK," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 97-121, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:61:y:2010:i:1:p:97-121
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.2009.00231.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.2009.00231.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1477-9552.2009.00231.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khan, Mohsm S. & Ross, Knud Z., 1977. "The functional form of the aggregate import demand equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 149-160, May.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Orhan Kara, 2003. "Relative Responsiveness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and Exchange Rate," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 293-308.
    3. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "An aggregate import demand function for India: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 607-613.
    4. Olson, Lars J., 2006. "The Economics of Terrestrial Invasive Species: A Review of the Literature," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-17, April.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Richard D. Horan & Charles Perrings & Frank Lupi & Erwin H. Bulte, 2002. "Biological Pollution Prevention Strategies under Ignorance:The Case of Invasive Species," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1303-1310.
    7. J. D. Mumford, 2002. "Economic issues related to quarantine in international trade," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 329-348, July.
    8. Perrings, Charles, 2005. "Mitigation and adaptation strategies for the control of biological invasions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 315-325, February.
    9. Efthymios Tsionas & Dimitris Christopoulos, 2004. "International Evidence on Import Demand," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 43-53, March.
    10. Margolis, Michael & Shogren, Jason F. & Fischer, Carolyn, 2005. "How trade politics affect invasive species control," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 305-313, February.
    11. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1996. "Japanese import behavior and cointegration: A comment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 583-601, December.
    12. Garcia Martinez, Marian & Poole, Nigel, 2004. "The development of private fresh produce safety standards: implications for developing Mediterranean exporting countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 229-255, June.
    13. Carone, Giuseppe, 1996. "Modeling the U.S. demand for imports through cointegration and error correction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-48, February.
    14. Jaffee, Steve & Masakure, Oliver, 2005. "Strategic use of private standards to enhance international competitiveness: Vegetable exports from Kenya and elsewhere," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 316-333, June.
    15. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    16. Pimentel, David & Zuniga, Rodolfo & Morrison, Doug, 2005. "Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 273-288, February.
    17. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    18. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
    19. Henson, Spencer & Loader, Rupert, 2001. "Barriers to Agricultural Exports from Developing Countries: The Role of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Requirements," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 85-102, January.
    20. Costello, Christopher & Springborn, Michael & McAusland, Carol & Solow, Andrew, 2007. "Unintended biological invasions: Does risk vary by trading partner?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 262-276, November.
    21. McAusland, Carol & Costello, Christopher, 2004. "Avoiding invasives: trade-related policies for controlling unintentional exotic species introductions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 954-977, September.
    22. C. Dolan & J. Humphrey, 2000. "Governance and Trade in Fresh Vegetables: The Impact of UK Supermarkets on the African Horticulture Industry," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 147-176.
    23. Alan King, 1993. "The Functional Form of Import Demand: The Case of UK Motor Vehicle Imports, 1980-90," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 36-50, September.
    24. John S. Wilson & Victor O. Abiola, 2003. "Standards and Global Trade : A Voice for Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15131, December.
    25. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 1999. "An aggregate import demand function for Bangladesh: a cointegration approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 465-472.
    26. Christopher Costello & Carol McAusland, 2003. "Protectionism, Trade, and Measures of Damage from Exotic Species Introductions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 964-975.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Karemera & Bo Xiong & Gerald Smalls & Louis Whitesides, 2022. "The political economy of maximum residue limits: A long‐term health perspective," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 709-719, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mwebaze, Paul & Monaghan, J. & Revell, Brian J. & Hare, M. & MacLeod, Alan & Spence, N., 2008. "Modeling The Risks Associated With Increased Importation Of Fresh Produce From Emerging Supply Sources To The Uk," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43963, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Khurram Ashfaq Baluch & Syed Kalim Hyder Bukhari, 2012. "Price and Income Elasticity of Imports: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 48, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    3. Tu, Anh Thuy & Beghin, John & Gozlan, Estelle, 2008. "Tariff escalation and invasive species damages," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 619-629, November.
    4. Olson, Lars J., 2006. "The Economics of Terrestrial Invasive Species: A Review of the Literature," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 178-194, April.
    5. Burnett, Kimberly M. & D'Evelyn, Sean & Kaiser, Brooks A. & Nantamanasikarn, Porntawee & Roumasset, James A., 2008. "Beyond the lamppost: Optimal prevention and control of the Brown Tree Snake in Hawaii," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 66-74, August.
    6. Haight, Robert G. & Polasky, Stephen, 2010. "Optimal control of an invasive species with imperfect information about the level of infestation," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 519-533, November.
    7. Lovell, Sabrina J. & Stone, Susan F. & Fernandez, Linda, 2006. "The Economic Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species: A Review of the Literature," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, April.
    8. Anisul Islam & M. Kabir Hassan, 2004. "An econometric estimation of the aggregate import demand function for Bangladesh: some further results," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 575-580.
    9. Anke Leroux & Donald Maclaren, 2011. "The Optimal Time to Remove Quarantine Bans Under Uncertainty: The Case of Australian Bananas," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 140-152, March.
    10. Inaba, Masaru & Nutahara, Kengo, 2009. "The role of investment wedges in the Carlstrom-Fuerst economy and business cycle accounting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 200-203, December.
    11. Batabyal, Amitrajeet A. & Beladi, Hamid, 2009. "Trade, the damage from alien species, and the effects of protectionism under alternate market structures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 389-401, May.
    12. Bevilacqua, Franco, 2006. "Random walks and cointegration relationships in international parity conditions between Germany and USA for the Bretton-Woods period," MERIT Working Papers 2006-016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2006. "An aggregate import demand function for Turkey: a cointegration analysis," MPRA Paper 4260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Giaccaria Sergio & Dalmazzone Silvana, 2010. "Socio-economic drivers of biological invasions. A worldwide, bio-geographical analysis of trade flows and local environmental quality," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201003, University of Turin.
    15. Warziniack, Travis W. & Finnoff, David & Shogren, Jason F., 2013. "Public economics of hitchhiking species and tourism-based risk to ecosystem services," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 277-294.
    16. David Simpson, 2008. "Preventing Biological Invasions: Doing Something vs. Doing Nothing," NCEE Working Paper Series 200811, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Nov 2008.
    17. Dalmazzone, Silvana & Giaccaria, Sergio, 2014. "Economic drivers of biological invasions: A worldwide, bio-geographic analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 154-165.
    18. Yoichi Matsubayashi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2009. "Empirical analysis of import demand behavior of least developed countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1443-1458.
    19. Koi Nyen Wong & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Exchange rate variability and the export demand for Malaysia's semiconductors: an empirical study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 695-706.
    20. Olson, Lars J. & Roy, Santanu, 2010. "Dynamic sanitary and phytosanitary trade policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 21-30, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:61:y:2010:i:1:p:97-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-857X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.