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Modeling The Risks Associated With Increased Importation Of Fresh Produce From Emerging Supply Sources To The Uk


  • Mwebaze, Paul
  • Monaghan, J.
  • Revell, Brian J.
  • Hare, M.
  • MacLeod, Alan
  • Spence, N.


The risk of non-indigenous pests entering the UK via international trade in fresh produce is increasing. Suppliers of fresh produce to UK and EU multiple retailers are utilising new procurement areas for fresh produce importation to reduce their costs of production. The objective of this paper is to identify current and future supply sources for UK fresh produce importers and examine the extent to which they provide invasion pathways. The hypothesis that increased importation of fresh produce from new sources outside the EU could increase the risks of non-indigenous pests is tested in a bio-economic model in which the number of species detections per unit of imports is a function of the number of inspections per unit of imports and country of origin, while the volume of imports is itself a function of the gross domestic product, relative import prices, policy and seasonality variables. The study has identified clear trends, which show import volumes and pest species detections increasing from new supply sources. The study found that risk of pest species differs significantly with the country of origin of commodity. If this trend should continue in the future, then UK plant health inspectors should expect to confront pest species in much greater numbers. The results support the case for discriminatory policy to use the limited resources available in a way that will more closely target inspection efforts on the higher risk trade pathways.

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  • Mwebaze, Paul & Monaghan, J. & Revell, Brian J. & Hare, M. & MacLeod, Alan & Spence, N., 2008. "Modeling The Risks Associated With Increased Importation Of Fresh Produce From Emerging Supply Sources To The Uk," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43963, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:43963

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Orhan Kara, 2003. "Relative Responsiveness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and Exchange Rate," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 293-308.
    2. Carone, Giuseppe, 1996. "Modeling the U.S. demand for imports through cointegration and error correction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-48, February.
    3. Margolis, Michael & Shogren, Jason F. & Fischer, Carolyn, 2005. "How trade politics affect invasive species control," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 305-313, February.
    4. Pimentel, David & Zuniga, Rodolfo & Morrison, Doug, 2005. "Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 273-288, February.
    5. Costello, Christopher & Springborn, Michael & McAusland, Carol & Solow, Andrew, 2007. "Unintended biological invasions: Does risk vary by trading partner?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 262-276, November.
    6. McAusland, Carol & Costello, Christopher, 2004. "Avoiding invasives: trade-related policies for controlling unintentional exotic species introductions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 954-977, September.
    7. Christopher Costello & Carol McAusland, 2003. "Protectionism, Trade, and Measures of Damage from Exotic Species Introductions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 964-975.
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    More about this item


    Quarantine pests; pathways; trade.; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade;

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