IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ajaeau/22368.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions And The Value Of Seasonal Forecasts To A Dryland Wheat Grower

Author

Listed:
  • Marshall, Graham R.
  • Parton, Kevin A.
  • Hammer, G.L.

Abstract

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring in the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity. The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non-use.

Suggested Citation

  • Marshall, Graham R. & Parton, Kevin A. & Hammer, G.L., 1996. "Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions And The Value Of Seasonal Forecasts To A Dryland Wheat Grower," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(3), pages 1-23, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:22368
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.22368
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/22368/files/40030211.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.22368?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Easter, Christopher D. & Paris, Quirino, 1983. "Supply Response With Stochastic Technology And Prices In Australia'S Rural Export Industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Byerlee, Derek R. & Anderson, Jock R., 1982. "Risk, Utility and the Value of Information in Farmer Decision Making," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(03), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Kingwell, R. S. & Morrison, D. A. & Bathgate, A. D., 1992. "The effect of climatic risk on dryland farm management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 153-175.
    4. Mjelde, James W. & Cochran, Mark J., 1988. "Obtaining Lower And Upper Bounds On The Value Of Seasonal Climate Forecasts As A Function Of Risk Preferences," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-9, December.
    5. James W. Mjelde & Steven T. Sonka & Bruce L. Dixon & Peter J. Lamb, 1988. "Valuing Forecast Characteristics in a Dynamic Agricultural Production System," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(3), pages 674-684.
    6. Ronald W. Hilton, 1981. "The Determinants of Information Value: Synthesizing Some General Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 57-64, January.
    7. Anderson, Jock R. & Dillon, John L. & Hardaker, Brian, 1977. "Agricultural Decision Analysis," Monographs: Applied Economics, AgEcon Search, number 288652, July.
    8. Pannell, David J., 1994. "The Value Of Information In Herbicide Decision Making For Weed Control In Australian Wheat Crops," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-16, December.
    9. Mazzocco, Michael A. & Mjelde, James W. & Sonka, Steven T. & Lamb, Peter J. & Hollinger, Steven E., 1992. "Using hierarchical systems aggregation to model the value of information in agricultural systems: An application for climate forecast information," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 393-412.
    10. Mjelde, James W. & Dixon, Bruce L., 1993. "Valuing the lead time of periodic forecasts in dynamic production systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 41-55.
    11. Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 44, pages 2343-2378, Elsevier.
    12. J. Brian Hardaker & Louise H. Patten & David J. Pannell, 1988. "Utility‐Efficient Programming For Whole‐Farm Planning," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 32(2-3), pages 88-97, 08-12.
    13. Brennan, John P., 1989. "An analytical model of a wheat breeding program," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 349-366.
    14. David K. Lambert & Bruce A. McCarl, 1985. "Risk Modeling Using Direct Solution of Nonlinear Approximations of the Utility Function," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(4), pages 846-852.
    15. A. E. Baquet & A. N. Halter & Frank S. Conklin, 1976. "The Value of Frost Forecasting: A Bayesian Appraisal," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(3), pages 511-520.
    16. McCown, R. L. & Hammer, G. L. & Hargreaves, J. N. G. & Holzworth, D. P. & Freebairn, D. M., 1996. "APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing and simulation in agricultural systems research," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 255-271.
    17. James W. Mjelde & Troy N. Thompson & Clair J. Nixon, 1996. "Government Institutional Effects on the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 175-188.
    18. Dorward, Andrew, 1994. "Farm Planning with Resource Uncertainty: A Semi-sequential Approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 21(2), pages 309-324.
    19. Trebeck, David B. & Hardaker, J. Brian, 1972. "The Integrated Use Of Simulation And Stochastic Programming For Whole Farm Planning Under Risk," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(2), pages 1-12, August.
    20. Christopher D. Easter & Quirino Paris, 1983. "Supply Response With Stochastic Technology And Prices In Australia'S Rural Export Industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 27(1), pages 12-30, April.
    21. Rulon D. Pope & Richard E. Just, 1991. "On Testing the Structure of Risk Preferences in Agricultural Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 743-748.
    22. Buschena, David E. & Zilberman, David, 1994. "What Do We Know About Decision Making Under Risk And Where Do We Go From Here?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-14, December.
    23. Schoemaker, Paul J H, 1982. "The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 529-563, June.
    24. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1993. "On the demand for information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 398-407, October.
    25. Kingwell, R. S. & Schilizzi, S. G. M., 1994. "Dryland pasture improvement given climatic risk," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 175-190.
    26. Hardaker, J. Brian & Pandey, Sushil & Patten, Louise H., 1991. "Farm Planning under Uncertainty: A Review of Alternative Programming Models," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(01), pages 1-14, April.
    27. David B. Trebeck & J. Brian Hardaker, 1972. "The Integrated Use Of Simulation And Stochastic Programming For Whole Farm Planning Under Risk," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(2), pages 115-126, August.
    28. Marshall, Graham R. & Parton, K.A., 1996. "Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions and the Value of Climate Forecasts to a Dryland Wheat Grower," 1996 Conference (40th), February 11-16, 1996, Melbourne, Australia 156433, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ying Zhang & Liangzhi You & Donghoon Lee & Paul Block, 2020. "Integrating climate prediction and regionalization into an agro-economic model to guide agricultural planning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 435-451, February.
    2. Williams, John & Malcolm, Bill, 2012. "Farmer decisions about selling wheat and managing wheat price risk in Australia," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 20, pages 1-10.
    3. Petersen, E. H. & Fraser, R. W., 2001. "An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 259-274, October.
    4. Jesse B. Tack & David Ubilava, 2015. "Climate and agricultural risk: measuring the effect of ENSO on U.S. crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 245-257, March.
    5. John W. Ritchie & G. Yahya Abawi & Sunil C. Dutta & Trevor R. Harris & Michael Bange, 2004. "Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(1), pages 65-93, March.
    6. Nelson, R. A. & Holzworth, D. P. & Hammer, G. L. & Hayman, P. T., 2002. "Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 393-414, December.
    7. Abedullah & Sushil Pandey, 2007. "The Value of Rainfall Forecasts in the Rainfed Rice Areas of the Philippines," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 69-81, Jul-Dec.
    8. Crean, Jason & Parton, Kevin & Mullen, John & Hayman, Peter, 2015. "Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in a state-contingent manner," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(1), January.
    9. Carter, Chris & Crean, Jason & Kingwell, Ross S. & Hertzler, Greg, 2006. "Managing and Sharing the Risks of Drought in Australia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25319, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Hammer, G. L. & Hansen, J. W. & Phillips, J. G. & Mjelde, J. W. & Hill, H. & Love, A. & Potgieter, A., 2001. "Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(2-3), pages 515-553.
    11. Ritchie, John W. & Abawi, G. Yahya & Dutta, Sunil C. & Harris, Trevor R. & Bange, Michael, 2004. "Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-29.
    12. Kingwell, Ross & John, Michele, 2007. "The influence of farm landscape shape on the impact and management of dryland salinity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 29-38, April.
    13. Hill, Harvey S.J. & Park, Jaehong & Mjelde, James W. & Rosenthal, Wesley & Love, H. Alan & Fuller, Stephen W., 1998. "The Value Of El Nino Forecast Methods For The U.S. Winter Wheat Producers, Do They Differ?," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20906, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Messina, C. D. & Hansen, J. W. & Hall, A. J., 1999. "Land allocation conditioned on El Nino-Southern Oscillation phases in the Pampas of Argentina," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 197-212, June.
    15. McFadden, Brandon R. & Lusk, Jayson L., 2015. "Cognitive biases in the assimilation of scientific information on global warming and genetically modified food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 35-43.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Petersen, E. H. & Fraser, R. W., 2001. "An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 259-274, October.
    2. Messina, C. D. & Hansen, J. W. & Hall, A. J., 1999. "Land allocation conditioned on El Nino-Southern Oscillation phases in the Pampas of Argentina," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 197-212, June.
    3. Kingwell, Ross, 1996. "Programming models of farm supply response: The impact of specification errors," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 307-324.
    4. Pannell, David J. & Malcolm, Bill & Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 69-78, June.
    5. Apland, Jeffrey & Hauer, Grant, 1993. "Discrete Stochastic Programming: Concepts, Examples And A Review Of Empirical Applications," Staff Papers 13793, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    6. Ritchie, John W. & Abawi, G. Yahya & Dutta, Sunil C. & Harris, Trevor R. & Bange, Michael, 2004. "Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-29.
    7. Pannell, David J. & Nordblom, Thomas L., 1998. "Impacts of risk aversion on whole-farm management in Syria," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(3), pages 1-21.
    8. Hammer, G. L. & Hansen, J. W. & Phillips, J. G. & Mjelde, J. W. & Hill, H. & Love, A. & Potgieter, A., 2001. "Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(2-3), pages 515-553.
    9. World Bank, 2010. "Improving Water Management in Rainfed Agriculture : Issues and Options in Water-Constrained Production Systems," World Bank Publications - Reports 13028, The World Bank Group.
    10. John W. Ritchie & G. Yahya Abawi & Sunil C. Dutta & Trevor R. Harris & Michael Bange, 2004. "Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(1), pages 65-93, March.
    11. Abedullah & Sushil Pandey, 2007. "The Value of Rainfall Forecasts in the Rainfed Rice Areas of the Philippines," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 69-81, Jul-Dec.
    12. Torkamani, Javad, 2005. "Using a whole-farm modelling approach to assess prospective technologies under uncertainty," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 138-154, August.
    13. Kingwell, Ross S., 1995. "Effects of Tactical Responses and Risk Aversion on Farm Wheat Supply," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(01), pages 1-14, April.
    14. Carter, Chris & Crean, Jason & Kingwell, Ross S. & Hertzler, Greg, 2006. "Managing and Sharing the Risks of Drought in Australia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25319, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Olson, Kent D. & Mikesell, Chris L., 1988. "The Range Stocking Decision And Stochastic Forage Production," Staff Papers 13502, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    16. Malcolm, Bill, 1990. "Fifty Years of Farm Management in Australia: Survey and Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(01), pages 1-32, April.
    17. Mullen, John D., 2001. "An Economic Persective On Land Degradation Issues," Research Reports 27999, New South Wales Department of Primary Industries Research Economists.
    18. Apland, Jeffrey & Kaiser, Harry M., 1984. "Discrete Stochastic Sequential Programming: A Primer," Staff Papers 13545, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    19. G. R. Soltani & M. Bakhshoodeh & M. Zibaei, 2009. "Optimization of Agricultural Water Use and Trade Patterns: The Case of Iran," Working Papers 508, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2009.
    20. Patton, Dean A. & Milthorpe, P.L. & Wynne, M. & Honeysett, B.M., 2000. "Evaluation of forage shrub plantations as a drought preparedness strategy for landholders in the Central-west of NSW," 2000 Conference (44th), January 23-25, 2000, Sydney, Australia 123716, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:22368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.