IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions And The Value Of Seasonal Forecasts To A Dryland Wheat Grower

  • Marshall, Graham R.
  • Parton, Kevin A.
  • Hammer, G.L.

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring in the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity. The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non-use.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 40 (1996)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)

in new window

Handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:22368
Contact details of provider: Postal: AARES Central Office Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, Canberra ACT 0200
Phone: 0409 032 338
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ronald W. Hilton, 1981. "The Determinants of Information Value: Synthesizing Some General Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 57-64, January.
  2. Mjelde, James W. & Cochran, Mark J., 1988. "Obtaining Lower And Upper Bounds On The Value Of Seasonal Climate Forecasts As A Function Of Risk Preferences," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(02), December.
  3. James W. Mjelde & Troy N. Thompson & Clair J. Nixon, 1996. "Government Institutional Effects on the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 175-188.
  4. McCown, R. L. & Hammer, G. L. & Hargreaves, J. N. G. & Holzworth, D. P. & Freebairn, D. M., 1996. "APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing and simulation in agricultural systems research," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 255-271.
  5. Easter, Christopher D. & Paris, Quirino, 1983. "Supply Response With Stochastic Technology And Prices In Australia'S Rural Export Industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 27(01), April.
  6. Dorward, Andrew, 1994. "Farm Planning with Resource Uncertainty: A Semi-sequential Approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 309-24.
  7. Byerlee, Derek R. & Anderson, Jock R., 1982. "Risk, Utility and the Value of Information in Farmer Decision Making," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(03), December.
  8. Marshall, Graham R. & Parton, K.A., 1996. "Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions and the Value of Climate Forecasts to a Dryland Wheat Grower," 1996 Conference (40th), February 11-16, 1996, Melbourne, Australia 156433, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  9. Trebeck, David B. & Hardaker, J. Brian, 1972. "The Integrated Use Of Simulation And Stochastic Programming For Whole Farm Planning Under Risk," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(02), August.
  10. Kingwell, R. S. & Morrison, D. A. & Bathgate, A. D., 1992. "The effect of climatic risk on dryland farm management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 153-175.
  11. Pannell, David J., 1994. "The Value Of Information In Herbicide Decision Making For Weed Control In Australian Wheat Crops," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(02), December.
  12. Buschena, David E. & Zilberman, David, 1994. "What Do We Know About Decision Making Under Risk And Where Do We Go From Here?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(02), December.
  13. Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.
  14. Mazzocco, Michael A. & Mjelde, James W. & Sonka, Steven T. & Lamb, Peter J. & Hollinger, Steven E., 1992. "Using hierarchical systems aggregation to model the value of information in agricultural systems: An application for climate forecast information," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 393-412.
  15. Mjelde, James W. & Dixon, Bruce L., 1993. "Valuing the lead time of periodic forecasts in dynamic production systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 41-55.
  16. Kingwell, R. S. & Schilizzi, S. G. M., 1994. "Dryland pasture improvement given climatic risk," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 175-190.
  17. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1993. "On the demand for information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 398-407, October.
  18. Brennan, John P., 1989. "An analytical model of a wheat breeding program," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 349-366.
  19. Hardaker, J. Brian & Patten, Louise H. & Pannell, David J., 1988. "Utility-Efficient Programming For Whole-Farm Planning," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 32(02-03).
  20. Schoemaker, Paul J H, 1982. "The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 529-63, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:22368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.