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Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions And The Value Of Seasonal Forecasts To A Dryland Wheat Grower

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  • Graham R. Marshall
  • Kevin A. Parton
  • G.L. Hammer

Abstract

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring in the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity. The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non-use.
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  • Graham R. Marshall & Kevin A. Parton & G.L. Hammer, 1996. "Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions And The Value Of Seasonal Forecasts To A Dryland Wheat Grower," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(3), pages 211-233, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:40:y:1996:i:3:p:211-233
    DOI: j.1467-8489.1996.tb00595.x
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    3. Jesse B. Tack & David Ubilava, 2015. "Climate and agricultural risk: measuring the effect of ENSO on U.S. crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 245-257, March.
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    5. Ying Zhang & Liangzhi You & Donghoon Lee & Paul Block, 2020. "Integrating climate prediction and regionalization into an agro-economic model to guide agricultural planning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 435-451, February.
    6. Hammer, G. L. & Hansen, J. W. & Phillips, J. G. & Mjelde, J. W. & Hill, H. & Love, A. & Potgieter, A., 2001. "Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(2-3), pages 515-553.
    7. Ritchie, John W. & Abawi, G. Yahya & Dutta, Sunil C. & Harris, Trevor R. & Bange, Michael, 2004. "Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-29.
    8. Kingwell, Ross & John, Michele, 2007. "The influence of farm landscape shape on the impact and management of dryland salinity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 29-38, April.
    9. Messina, C. D. & Hansen, J. W. & Hall, A. J., 1999. "Land allocation conditioned on El Nino-Southern Oscillation phases in the Pampas of Argentina," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 197-212, June.
    10. John W. Ritchie & G. Yahya Abawi & Sunil C. Dutta & Trevor R. Harris & Michael Bange, 2004. "Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(1), pages 65-93, March.
    11. Williams, John & Malcolm, Bill, 2012. "Farmer decisions about selling wheat and managing wheat price risk in Australia," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 20, pages 1-10.
    12. McFadden, Brandon R. & Lusk, Jayson L., 2015. "Cognitive biases in the assimilation of scientific information on global warming and genetically modified food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 35-43.
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