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What Do We Know About Decision Making Under Risk And Where Do We Go From Here?

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  • Buschena, David E.
  • Zilberman, David

Abstract

This article reviews two major approached used in the past for risk analysis - the expected utility approach and the use of safety rules and endeavors to reconcile their applicability and use in light of the recent nonexpected utility risk literature and working using the mean-Gini coefficient for risk analysis. This leads to the identification of several "reduced form" hypotheses that hold under a variety of theoretical structures and to a discussion of some empirical evidence regarding these hypotheses. The major lesson of recent research of individual behavior under risk is that it is not always consistent with the expected utility approach; in short, there is no generic model for evaluating behavior under risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Buschena, David E. & Zilberman, David, 1994. "What Do We Know About Decision Making Under Risk And Where Do We Go From Here?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30756
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Machina, Mark J., 1989. "Comparative statics and non-expected utility preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 393-405, April.
    2. Shalit, Haim & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1984. " Mean-Gini, Portfolio Theory, and the Pricing of Risky Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1449-1468, December.
    3. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    4. Uzi Segal, 1984. "Nonlinear Decision Weights with the Independence Axiom," UCLA Economics Working Papers 353, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. Grether, David M & Plott, Charles R, 1979. "Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 623-638, September.
    6. Battalio, Raymond C & Kagel, John H & Jiranyakul, Komain, 1990. "Testing between Alternative Models of Choice under Uncertainty: Some Initial Results," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 25-50, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bharat M. Upadhyay & Douglas L. Young, 2005. "An Operational Approach for Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application to the No-Till Transition," Working Papers 2005-1, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    2. David J. Pannell & Getu Hailu & Alfons Weersink & Amanda Burt, 2008. "More reasons why farmers have so little interest in futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 41-50, July.
    3. Govindasamy, Ramu & Italia, John & Liptak, Clare, 1997. "Quality of Agricultural Produce: Consumer Preferences and Perceptions," P Series 36739, Rutgers University, Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics.
    4. Serrao, Amilcar & Coelho, Luis, 2006. "The Role of area-yield crop insurance program face to the Mid-term Review of Common Agricultural Policy," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21411, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Bharat M. Upadhyay & Douglas L. Young, 2004. "An Operational Approach For Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application To The No-Till Transition," Others 0412002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Serrao, Amilcar & Coelho, Luis, 2005. "Analysing Farmers' Decision-Making Process Face to the Mid-Term Review of the Common Agricultural Policy in the Alentejo region of Portugal," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19266, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Marshall, Graham R. & Parton, Kevin A. & Hammer, G.L., 1996. "Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions And The Value Of Seasonal Forecasts To A Dryland Wheat Grower," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(3), pages 1-23, December.
    8. Ritchie, John W. & Abawi, G. Yahya & Dutta, Sunil C. & Harris, Trevor R. & Bange, Michael, 2004. "Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-29.
    9. Serrao, Amilcar & Coelho, Luis, 2004. "Cumulative Prospect Theory: A Study Of The Farmers' Decision Behavior In The Alentejo Dryland Region Of Portugal," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20245, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Mikémina, Pilo & Gerber, Nicolas & Wünscher, Tobias, 2018. "Impacts of Adaptation to Climate Change on farmers’ income in the Savana Region of Togo," Discussion Papers 271152, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    11. Pannell, David J. & Malcolm, Bill & Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 69-78, June.
    12. Govindasamy, Ramu & Italia, John, 1997. "Consumer Response to Integrated Pest Management and Organic Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis," P Series 36727, Rutgers University, Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics.
    13. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2015. "Alegerea soluţiilor pentru expunerile faţă de risc
      [Choosing solutions to risk exposures]      ," MPRA Paper 65074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Coble, Keith H. & Barnett, Barry J., 1999. "The Role Of Research In Producer Risk Management," Professional Papers 15803, Mississippi State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    15. Anderson, Kim B. & Mapp, Harry P., Jr., 1996. "Risk Management Programs In Extension," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-8, July.
    16. Pannell, David J. & Malcolm, Bill & Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 69-78, June.

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    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

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