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An Operational Approach For Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application To The No-Till Transition

  • Bharat M. Upadhyay

    (Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada)

  • Douglas L. Young

    (Washington State University)

Registered author(s):

    Roy’s safety-first rule is used to provide measures popular with farmers of short and long term business risk associated with various no-till transition strategies over an investment horizon. The short run rule provided more sensitivity to inter-year financial risk than other commonly used criteria. Results revealed that speed of adoption influenced the probability of successful transition more than did the sequence of drill acquisition methods. Higher equity and larger farms had a greater chance of transition success. Slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill reduces risk until a no-till yield penalty is eliminated.

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    File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/othr/papers/0412/0412002.pdf
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    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Others with number 0412002.

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    Length: 22 pages
    Date of creation: 29 Dec 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0412002
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 22. 22 pages, PDF format
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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    7. Just, Richard E., 2003. "Risk research in agricultural economics: opportunities and challenges for the next twenty-five years," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 123-159.
    8. Selley, Roger A. & Wilson, Paul N., 1997. "Risk Research And Public Outreach: A Tale Of Two Cultures?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(02), December.
    9. Just, Richard E. & Rausser, Gordon C., 1989. "An Assessment of the Agricultural Economics Profession," Working Papers 197619, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    10. Mossin, Jan, 1969. "A Note on Uncertainty and Preferences in a Temporal Context," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 172-74, March.
    11. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Somarriba, Eduardo, 2000. "Risk And Returns Of Diversified Cropping Systems Under Nonnormal, Cross-, And Autocorrelated Commodity Price Structures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(02), December.
    12. Spence, Michael & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1972. "The Effect of the Timing of Consumption Decisions and the Resolution of Lotteries on the Choice of Lotteries," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 401-03, March.
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