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Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis

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Cited by:

  1. Edouard Kujawski & Mariana L. Alvaro & William R. Edwards, 2004. "Incorporating psychological influences in probabilistic cost analysis," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(3), pages 195-216.
  2. James K. Hammitt & Yifan Zhang, 2013. "Combining Experts’ Judgments: Comparison of Algorithmic Methods Using Synthetic Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 109-120, January.
  3. Franz Dietrich & Christian List, 2017. "Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part one: general agendas," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 48(4), pages 747-786, April.
  4. Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan & Rook, Laurens, 2019. "Coordinating judgmental forecasting: Coping with intentional biases," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-56.
  5. Alexander Boudewijn & Jef R. Peeters & Dirk Cattrysse & Wim Dewulf & Luca Campadello & Alessia Accili & Joost R. Duflou, 2022. "Systematic Quantification of Waste Compositions: A Case Study for Waste of Electric and Electronic Equipment Plastics in the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
  6. Andrea Herrmann, 2013. "The Quantitative Estimation of IT‐Related Risk Probabilities," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(8), pages 1510-1531, August.
  7. Kenneth Gillingham & William D. Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewon McJeon & John Reilly & Paul Sztorc, 2015. "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison," NBER Working Papers 21637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Franz Dietrich & Christian List, 2017. "Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: the premise-based approach," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 48(4), pages 787-814, April.
  9. Julia R. Falconer & Eibe Frank & Devon L. L. Polaschek & Chaitanya Joshi, 2022. "Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 189-204, September.
  10. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
  11. H. J. Van der Fels‐Klerx & Roger M. Cooke & Maarten N. Nauta & Louis H. Goossens & Arie H. Havelaar, 2005. "A Structured Expert Judgment Study for a Model of Campylobacter Transmission During Broiler‐Chicken Processing," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 109-124, February.
  12. Christopher W. Karvetski & David R. Mandel & Daniel Irwin, 2020. "Improving Probability Judgment in Intelligence Analysis: From Structured Analysis to Statistical Aggregation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 1040-1057, May.
  13. Rahman, Md Samsur & Khan, Faisal & Shaikh, Arifusalam & Ahmed, Salim & Imtiaz, Syed, 2020. "A conditional dependence-based marine logistics support risk model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
  14. Hongjun Fan & Hossein Enshaei & Shantha Gamini Jayasinghe, 2022. "Formation of Dataset for Fuzzy Quantitative Risk Assessment of LNG Bunkering SIMOPs," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-13, May.
  15. L. Robin Keller, 2008. "From the Editor..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 1-4, March.
  16. Avner Engel & Shalom Shachar, 2006. "Measuring and optimizing systems' quality costs and project duration," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(3), pages 259-280, September.
  17. Bloomfield, H.C. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Troccoli, A. & Goodess, C.M. & De Felice, M. & Dubus, L. & Bett, P.E. & Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., 2021. "Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1062-1075.
  18. Fergus Bolger & Gene Rowe, 2015. "The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 5-11, January.
  19. Jeffrey M. Keisler, 2005. "Additivity of Information Value in Two‐Act Linear Loss Decisions with Normal Priors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(2), pages 351-359, April.
  20. Jesus Palomo & David Rios Insua & Fabrizio Ruggeri, 2007. "Modeling External Risks in Project Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 961-978, August.
  21. Bergen, Matías & Muñoz, Francisco D., 2018. "Quantifying the effects of uncertain climate and environmental policies on investments and carbon emissions: A case study of Chile," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 261-273.
  22. Abhinav B. Agrawal & Kash Barker & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2011. "Adaptive multiplayer approach for risk‐based decision‐making: 2006 Virginia Gubernatorial Inauguration," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 455-470, December.
  23. Martin Weitzman, 2013. "A Precautionary Tale of Uncertain Tail Fattening," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 159-173, June.
  24. Lance W. Saunders & J. Paul Brooks & Jason R. W. Merrick & Chad W. Autry, 2020. "Addressing Economic/Environmental Sustainability Trade‐offs in Procurement Episodes with Industrial Suppliers," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(5), pages 1256-1269, May.
  25. Joel B. Predd & Daniel N. Osherson & Sanjeev R. Kulkarni & H. Vincent Poor, 2008. "Aggregating Probabilistic Forecasts from Incoherent and Abstaining Experts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 177-189, December.
  26. Mitchell J. Small, 2008. "Methods for Assessing Uncertainty in Fundamental Assumptions and Associated Models for Cancer Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1289-1308, October.
  27. Chunchang Zhang & Hu Sun & Yuanyuan Zhang & Gen Li & Shibo Li & Junyu Chang & Gongqian Shi, 2023. "Fire Accident Risk Analysis of Lithium Battery Energy Storage Systems during Maritime Transportation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-12, September.
  28. Mao, Quan & Li, Nan & Peña-Mora, Feniosky, 2019. "Quality function deployment-based framework for improving the resilience of critical infrastructure systems," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
  29. Robert L. Winkler*, 2015. "Equal Versus Differential Weighting in Combining Forecasts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 16-18, January.
  30. Ira Horowitz, 2004. "Aggregating Expert Ratings Using Preference-Neutral Weights: The Case of the College Football Polls," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 314-320, August.
  31. Atanasov, Pavel & Witkowski, Jens & Ungar, Lyle & Mellers, Barbara & Tetlock, Philip, 2020. "Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 19-35.
  32. Despoina Makariou & Pauline Barrieu & George Tzougas, 2021. "A Finite Mixture Modelling Perspective for Combining Experts’ Opinions with an Application to Quantile-Based Risk Measures," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-25, June.
  33. Robert L. Winkler, 2015. "The Importance of Communicating Uncertainties in Forecasts: Overestimating the Risks from Winter Storm Juno," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 349-353, March.
  34. Stephen C. Hora & Benjamin R. Fransen & Natasha Hawkins & Irving Susel, 2013. "Median Aggregation of Distribution Functions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 279-291, December.
  35. Zhou, Taotao & Modarres, Mohammad & Droguett, Enrique López, 2019. "Multi-unit risk aggregation with consideration of uncertainty and bias in risk metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 473-482.
  36. Makariou, Despoina & Barrieu, Pauline & Tzougas, George, 2021. "A finite mixture modelling perspective for combining experts’ opinions with an application to quantile-based risk measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110763, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  37. Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Ahti Salo, 2017. "Finding common ground when experts disagree: Robust portfolio decision analysis," Working Papers 2017/11, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  38. Anqiang Huang & Kin Keung Lai & Han Qiao & Shouyang Wang & Zhenji Zhang, 2018. "Does Interval Knowledge Sharpen Forecasting Models? Evidence from China’s Typical Ports," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(02), pages 467-483, March.
  39. Piero Baraldi & Enrico Zio, 2010. "A Comparison Between Probabilistic and Dempster‐Shafer Theory Approaches to Model Uncertainty Analysis in the Performance Assessment of Radioactive Waste Repositories," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(7), pages 1139-1156, July.
  40. Valsecchi, Irene, 2008. "Learning from Experts," International Energy Markets Working Papers 36756, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  41. Chiara Franzoni & Paula Stephan & Reinhilde Veugelers, 2022. "Funding Risky Research," Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 103-133.
  42. Neil A. Stiber & Mitchell J. Small & Marina Pantazidou, 2004. "Site‐Specific Updating and Aggregation of Bayesian Belief Network Models for Multiple Experts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1529-1538, December.
  43. Hanea, Anca & Wilkinson, David Peter & McBride, Marissa & Lyon, Aidan & van Ravenzwaaij, Don & Singleton Thorn, Felix & Gray, Charles T. & Mandel, David R. & Willcox, Aaron & Gould, Elliot, 2021. "Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures," MetaArXiv rxmh7, Center for Open Science.
  44. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2008. "Getting the Right Mix of Experts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 43-52, March.
  45. Jozsef Mezei & Peter Sarlin, 2014. "Aggregation operators for the measurement of systemic risk," Papers 1412.5452, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
  46. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene van Dorp & Amita Singh, 2005. "Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 17-29, March.
  47. Wu, Shengnan & Zhang, Qiao & Li, Bin & Zhang, Laibin & Zheng, Wenpei & Li, Zhong & Li, Zhandong & Liu, Yiliu, 2023. "Reliability analysis of subsea wellhead system subject to fatigue and degradation during service life," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
  48. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  49. Serkan Erbis & Zeynep Ok & Jacqueline A. Isaacs & James C. Benneyan & Sagar Kamarthi, 2016. "Review of Research Trends and Methods in Nano Environmental, Health, and Safety Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(8), pages 1644-1665, August.
  50. Eric Libby & Leon Glass, 2010. "The Calculus of Committee Composition," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(9), pages 1-8, September.
  51. Sascha Kurz, 2018. "Importance In Systems With Interval Decisions," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(06n07), pages 1-23, September.
  52. MohammadAmin Fazli & Azin Ghazimatin & Jafar Habibi & Hamid Haghshenas, 2016. "Team selection for prediction tasks," Journal of Combinatorial Optimization, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 743-757, February.
  53. Robin J. Lake & Peter J. Cressey & Donald M. Campbell & Elisabeth Oakley, 2010. "Risk Ranking for Foodborne Microbial Hazards in New Zealand: Burden of Disease Estimates," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 743-752, May.
  54. Mario Paulo Brito & Gwyn Griffiths & Peter Challenor, 2010. "Risk Analysis for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in Extreme Environments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1771-1788, December.
  55. Robert L. Winkler & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. & Victor Richmond R. Jose, 2019. "Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 239-260, December.
  56. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
  57. Philip Cooney & Arthur White, 2023. "Direct Incorporation of Expert Opinion into Parametric Survival Models to Inform Survival Extrapolation," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 43(3), pages 325-336, April.
  58. Bruce Tonn & Dorian Stiefel, 2013. "Evaluating Methods for Estimating Existential Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1772-1787, October.
  59. Peng Zhang & Guojin Qin & Yihuan Wang, 2019. "Risk Assessment System for Oil and Gas Pipelines Laid in One Ditch Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
  60. A. Procter & T. McDaniels & R. Vignola, 2017. "Using expert judgments to inform economic evaluation of ecosystem-based adaptation decisions: watershed management for enhancing water supply for Tegucigalpa, Honduras," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 410-422, December.
  61. Milford, James & Henrion, Max & Hunter, Chad & Newes, Emily & Hughes, Caroline & Baldwin, Samuel F., 2022. "Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
  62. Christopher W. Karvetski & Kenneth C. Olson & David R. Mandel & Charles R. Twardy, 2013. "Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 305-326, December.
  63. Richard Volkert & Jerrell Stracener & Junfang Yu, 2014. "Incorporating a Measure of Uncertainty into Systems of Systems Development Performance Measures," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), pages 297-312, September.
  64. Robert J. MacCoun, 2010. "Comment on "Rethinking America's Illegal Drug Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 281-289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. David V. Budescu & Eva Chen, 2015. "Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 267-280, February.
  66. Baoping Cai & Yonghong Liu & Zengkai Liu & Xiaojie Tian & Yanzhen Zhang & Renjie Ji, 2013. "Application of Bayesian Networks in Quantitative Risk Assessment of Subsea Blowout Preventer Operations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1293-1311, July.
  67. David R. Mandel & Christopher W. Karvetski & Mandeep K. Dhami, 2018. "Boosting intelligence analysts’ judgment accuracy: What works, what fails?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 13(6), pages 607-621, November.
  68. Jiayuan Dong & Jiankan Liao & Xun Huan & Daniel Cooper, 2023. "Expert elicitation and data noise learning for material flow analysis using Bayesian inference," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(4), pages 1105-1122, August.
  69. repec:cup:judgdm:v:13:y:2018:i:6:p:607-621 is not listed on IDEAS
  70. Patrick Afflerbach & Christopher Dun & Henner Gimpel & Dominik Parak & Johannes Seyfried, 2021. "A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 63(4), pages 329-348, August.
  71. Marta O. Soares & Mark J. Sculpher & Karl Claxton, 2020. "Health Opportunity Costs: Assessing the Implications of Uncertainty Using Elicitation Methods with Experts," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 40(4), pages 448-459, May.
  72. Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2020. "Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1092-1110, July.
  73. Tomás Lejarraga & Johannes Müller-Trede, 2017. "When Experience Meets Description: How Dyads Integrate Experiential and Descriptive Information in Risky Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1953-1971, June.
  74. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye, 2013. "Combining Experts: Decomposition and Aggregation Order," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1116-1127, June.
  75. Anca M. Hanea & Marissa F. McBride & Mark A. Burgman & Bonnie C. Wintle, 2018. "The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1781-1794, September.
  76. Iwona Gorzeń-Mitka & Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala, 2023. "Mapping the Energy Sector from a Risk Management Research Perspective: A Bibliometric and Scientific Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-32, February.
  77. Yuyu Fan & David V. Budescu & David Mandel & Mark Himmelstein, 2019. "Improving Accuracy by Coherence Weighting of Direct and Ratio Probability Judgments," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 197-217, September.
  78. Robert F. Bordley, 2009. "Combining the Opinions of Experts Who Partition Events Differently," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 38-46, March.
  79. Gilberto Montibeller & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2015. "Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1230-1251, July.
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  81. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2018. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1779-1803, April.
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  90. Marcello Basili & Federico Crudu, 2021. "Aggregation of Experts Opinions and the Assessment of Tipping Points. Catastrophic Forecasts for Higher Temperature Changes," Department of Economics University of Siena 868, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
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  99. T. Soliman & A. MacLeod & J. D. Mumford & T. P. L. Nghiem & H. T. W. Tan & S. K. Papworth & R. T. Corlett & L. R. Carrasco, 2016. "A Regional Decision Support Scheme for Pest Risk Analysis in Southeast Asia," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(5), pages 904-913, May.
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  103. Karin Hoelzer & Haley F. Oliver & Larry R. Kohl & Jill Hollingsworth & Martin T. Wells & Martin Wiedmann, 2012. "Structured Expert Elicitation About Listeria monocytogenes Cross‐Contamination in the Environment of Retail Deli Operations in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(7), pages 1139-1156, July.
  104. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2009. "Bayesian Simulation and Decision Analysis: An Expository Survey," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 222-238, December.
  105. Shital A. Thekdi & Joost Santos, 2019. "Decision‐Making Analytics Using Plural Resilience Parameters for Adaptive Management of Complex Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 871-889, April.
  106. Payuna Uday & Karen Marais, 2015. "Designing Resilient Systems‐of‐Systems: A Survey of Metrics, Methods, and Challenges," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(5), pages 491-510, October.
  107. Brian H. MacGillivray, 2019. "Null Hypothesis Testing ≠ Scientific Inference: A Critique of the Shaky Premise at the Heart of the Science and Values Debate, and a Defense of Value‐Neutral Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(7), pages 1520-1532, July.
  108. Ville A. Satopää & Marat Salikhov & Philip E. Tetlock & Barbara Mellers, 2021. "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7599-7618, December.
  109. Minh Ha-Duong, 2008. "Hierarchical fusion of expert opinion in the Transferable Belief Model, application on climate sensitivity," Post-Print halshs-00112129, HAL.
  110. Vicki Bier, 2020. "The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2207-2217, November.
  111. Guanchun Wang & Sanjeev R. Kulkarni & H. Vincent Poor & Daniel N. Osherson, 2011. "Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 128-144, June.
  112. Carole Bernard & Silvana M. Pesenti & Steven Vanduffel, 2022. "Robust Distortion Risk Measures," Papers 2205.08850, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
  113. Liu, Peng & Qiu, Yongping & Hu, Juntao & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Zhizhong, 2020. "Expert judgments for performance shaping Factors’ multiplier design in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
  114. K=osaku Takanashi & Kenichiro McAlinn, 2019. "Equivariant online predictions of non-stationary time series," Papers 1911.08662, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
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