IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v164y2021icp1062-1075.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections

Author

Listed:
  • Bloomfield, H.C.
  • Brayshaw, D.J.
  • Troccoli, A.
  • Goodess, C.M.
  • De Felice, M.
  • Dubus, L.
  • Bett, P.E.
  • Saint-Drenan, Y.-M.

Abstract

Climate simulations consistently show an increase in European near-surface air temperature by the late 21st century, although projections for near-surface wind speeds and irradiance differ between models, and are accompanied by large natural variability. These factors make it difficult to estimate the effects of physical climate change on power system planning. Here, the impact of climate change on future European power systems is estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Bloomfield, H.C. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Troccoli, A. & Goodess, C.M. & De Felice, M. & Dubus, L. & Bett, P.E. & Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., 2021. "Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1062-1075.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:164:y:2021:i:c:p:1062-1075
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148120315500
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.125?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    2. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.
    3. Barstad, Idar & Sorteberg, Asgeir & Mesquita, Michel dos-Santos, 2012. "Present and future offshore wind power potential in northern Europe based on downscaled global climate runs with adjusted SST and sea ice cover," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 398-405.
    4. Hilbers, Adriaan P. & Brayshaw, David J. & Gandy, Axel, 2019. "Importance subsampling: improving power system planning under climate-based uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1999. "Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 187-203, April.
    6. Theodore G. Shepherd & Emily Boyd & Raphael A. Calel & Sandra C. Chapman & Suraje Dessai & Ioana M. Dima-West & Hayley J. Fowler & Rachel James & Douglas Maraun & Olivia Martius & Catherine A. Senior , 2018. "Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 555-571, December.
    7. Müller, Johannes & Folini, Doris & Wild, Martin & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2019. "CMIP-5 models project photovoltaics are a no-regrets investment in Europe irrespective of climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 135-148.
    8. Ravestein, P. & van der Schrier, G. & Haarsma, R. & Scheele, R. & van den Broek, M., 2018. "Vulnerability of European intermittent renewable energy supply to climate change and climate variability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 497-508.
    9. Lucy Cradden & Gareth Harrison & John Chick, 2012. "Will climate change impact on wind power development in the UK?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 837-852, December.
    10. Rolf Golombek & Sverre Kittelsen & Ingjerd Haddeland, 2012. "Climate change: impacts on electricity markets in Western Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 357-370, July.
    11. Nigel W. Arnell & Jason A. Lowe & Ben Lloyd-Hughes & Timothy J. Osborn, 2018. "The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 61-76, March.
    12. Mideksa, Torben K. & Kallbekken, Steffen, 2010. "The impact of climate change on the electricity market: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3579-3585, July.
    13. Boßmann, T. & Staffell, I., 2015. "The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1317-1333.
    14. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Robert L. Winkler, 2013. "Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1594-1611, July.
    15. Drew, Daniel R. & Coker, Phil J. & Bloomfield, Hannah C. & Brayshaw, David J. & Barlow, Janet F. & Richards, Andrew, 2019. "Sunny windy sundays," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 870-875.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Soulis, Konstantinos X. & Manolakos, Dimitris & Ntavou, Erika & Kosmadakis, George, 2022. "A geospatial analysis approach for the operational assessment of solar ORC systems. Case study: Performance evaluation of a two-stage solar ORC engine in Greece," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 116-128.
    2. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Khalil, Adel & Abubakr, Mohamed, 2021. "Selection methodology of representative meteorological days for assessment of renewable energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 34-51.
    3. Cohen, Stuart M. & Dyreson, Ana & Turner, Sean & Tidwell, Vince & Voisin, Nathalie & Miara, Ariel, 2022. "A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    4. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    5. Grochowicz, Aleksander & van Greevenbroek, Koen & Benth, Fred Espen & Zeyringer, Marianne, 2023. "Intersecting near-optimal spaces: European power systems with more resilience to weather variability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Ruhnau, Oliver & Qvist, Staffan, 2021. "Storage requirements in a 100% renewable electricity system: Extreme events and inter-annual variability," EconStor Preprints 236723, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Klimenko, V.V. & Krasheninnikov, S.M. & Fedotova, E.V., 2022. "CHP performance under the warming climate: a case study for Russia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    8. Salameh, Tareq & Alkhalidi, Ammar & Hussien Rabaia, Malek Kamal & Al Swailmeen, Yaser & Alroujmah, Wared & Ibrahim, Mohamed & Abdelkareem, Mohammad Ali, 2022. "Optimization and life cycle analysis of solar-powered absorption chiller designed for a small house in the United Arab Emirates using evacuated tube technology," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 200-212.
    9. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Feng, Z. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2021. "Climate change impacts on the future offshore wind energy resource in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 731-747.
    10. Masih Mozakka & Mohsen Salimi & Morteza Hosseinpour & Tohid N. Borhani, 2022. "Why LNG Can Be a First Step in East Asia’s Energy Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: Evaluation of Challenges Using Game Theory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-17, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van der Wiel, K. & Stoop, L.P. & van Zuijlen, B.R.H. & Blackport, R. & van den Broek, M.A. & Selten, F.M., 2019. "Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 261-275.
    2. Deakin, Matthew & Bloomfield, Hannah & Greenwood, David & Sheehy, Sarah & Walker, Sara & Taylor, Phil C., 2021. "Impacts of heat decarbonization on system adequacy considering increased meteorological sensitivity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    3. Coker, Phil J. & Bloomfield, Hannah C. & Drew, Daniel R. & Brayshaw, David J., 2020. "Interannual weather variability and the challenges for Great Britain’s electricity market design," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 509-522.
    4. van Zuijlen, Bas & Zappa, William & Turkenburg, Wim & van der Schrier, Gerard & van den Broek, Machteld, 2019. "Cost-optimal reliable power generation in a deep decarbonisation future," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Silvio Pereira-Cardenal & Henrik Madsen & Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen & Niels Riegels & Roar Jensen & Birger Mo & Ivar Wangensteen & Peter Bauer-Gottwein, 2014. "Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 351-364, October.
    6. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    7. Castillo, Victhalia Zapata & Boer, Harmen-Sytze de & Muñoz, Raúl Maícas & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & Benders, René & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2022. "Future global electricity demand load curves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    8. Peacock, Malcolm & Fragaki, Aikaterini & Matuszewski, Bogdan J, 2023. "The impact of heat electrification on the seasonal and interannual electricity demand of Great Britain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    9. Huxley, O.T. & Taylor, J. & Everard, A. & Briggs, J. & Tilley, K. & Harwood, J. & Buckley, A., 2022. "The uncertainties involved in measuring national solar photovoltaic electricity generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    10. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    11. Ian M. Trotter & Torjus F. Bolkesj{o} & Eirik O. J{aa}stad & Jon Gustav Kirkerud, 2021. "Increased Electrification of Heating and Weather Risk in the Nordic Power System," Papers 2112.02893, arXiv.org.
    12. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    13. Hilbers, Adriaan P. & Brayshaw, David J. & Gandy, Axel, 2023. "Reducing climate risk in energy system planning: A posteriori time series aggregation for models with storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    14. Alexander Blinn & Henrik te Heesen, 2022. "UCB-SEnMod : A Model for Analyzing Future Energy Systems with 100% Renewable Energy Technologies—Methodology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-22, June.
    15. Pechan, Anna & Eisenack, Klaus, 2014. "The impact of heat waves on electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 63-71.
    16. Silvana Mima & Patrick Criqui, 2015. "The Costs of Climate Change for the European Energy System, an Assessment with the POLES Model," Post-Print hal-01149610, HAL.
    17. Ciscar, Juan-Carlos & Dowling, Paul, 2014. "Integrated assessment of climate impacts and adaptation in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 531-538.
    18. Bergen, Matías & Muñoz, Francisco D., 2018. "Quantifying the effects of uncertain climate and environmental policies on investments and carbon emissions: A case study of Chile," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 261-273.
    19. Rolf Golombek & Sverre Kittelsen & Ingjerd Haddeland, 2012. "Climate change: impacts on electricity markets in Western Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 357-370, July.
    20. Hdidouan, Daniel & Staffell, Iain, 2017. "The impact of climate change on the levelised cost of wind energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 575-592.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:164:y:2021:i:c:p:1062-1075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.