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Integrating climate change impacts into power system planning for achieving carbon neutrality in China

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  • Tang, Baojun
  • Wu, Yun
  • Yu, Biying
  • Harmsen, Robert
  • Hu, Jing
  • Crijns-Graus, Wina
  • Wei, Yi-Ming

Abstract

This study addresses the oversight in the climate change impacts on power system planning for carbon neutrality. We enhance the China's Climate Change Integrated Assessment/National Energy Technology (C3IAM/NET) Power model with meteorological big data, and model climate change impacts on power demand and supply. The regional power technology pathways and dispatching strategies under the RCP2.6 scenario is re-optimized by considering evolving weather patterns. Findings reveal a necessity for expanding renewable power to 9.8 TW by 2060, with wind and solar power contributing 4.2 TW and 5.0 TW, respectively, and storage capacity to 0.9 TW. 56 % of wind power, 42 % of solar power, and 48 % of storage concentrate in the North and Northwest, respectively. The Northwest needs to export up to 395 GWh of power per hour. Coping with climate fluctuations, the annual system cost by 2060 is estimated at 4.1 trillion RMB, an 8 % rise compared to the scenario without further climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Tang, Baojun & Wu, Yun & Yu, Biying & Harmsen, Robert & Hu, Jing & Crijns-Graus, Wina & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2025. "Integrating climate change impacts into power system planning for achieving carbon neutrality in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 248-261.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:73:y:2025:i:c:p:248-261
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.003
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