IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v97y2018icp497-508.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vulnerability of European intermittent renewable energy supply to climate change and climate variability

Author

Listed:
  • Ravestein, P.
  • van der Schrier, G.
  • Haarsma, R.
  • Scheele, R.
  • van den Broek, M.

Abstract

The impact of both climate change and climate variability on the supply of intermittent renewable energy sources (I-RES) in Europe are assessed based on global climate model simulations. The main driver of climate variability over Europe is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter and its equivalent in summer (sNAO) which determine to a large extent the atmospheric circulation in Europe. Four climate scenarios are constructed distinguished by a moderate and strong increase of the average global surface temperature, and a positive and negative phase of the atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic and Europe. This spans a framework which combines the effects of both climate change and climate variability. Using a 2050 distribution of PV panels and wind turbines, we found that although climate change is likely to have significant impact on future I-RES output in Europe, its effects, especially for wind power, are outweighed by the high and strongly variable impact of the NAO/sNAO phases. Variability in the large-scale atmospheric circulation is able to induce median I-RES yield differences of 20–30% for high wind potential regions. Due to the NAO variability also months were identified with persistent calm conditions over Europe linked to the inflow of frigid arctic air resulting in some regions in a decrease in wind power of up to 75%a accompanied with an increase in heating degree days of up to 30%. The results of the study imply that if requirements for the power system including back up capacity take into account the weather variability, the power system can also cope with the climate change impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravestein, P. & van der Schrier, G. & Haarsma, R. & Scheele, R. & van den Broek, M., 2018. "Vulnerability of European intermittent renewable energy supply to climate change and climate variability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 497-508.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:97:y:2018:i:c:p:497-508
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.08.057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032118306415
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2018.08.057?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chenni, R. & Makhlouf, M. & Kerbache, T. & Bouzid, A., 2007. "A detailed modeling method for photovoltaic cells," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1724-1730.
    2. Mavromatakis, F. & Makrides, G. & Georghiou, G. & Pothrakis, A. & Franghiadakis, Y. & Drakakis, E. & Koudoumas, E., 2010. "Modeling the photovoltaic potential of a site," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1387-1390.
    3. Jerez, S. & Thais, F. & Tobin, I. & Wild, M. & Colette, A. & Yiou, P. & Vautard, R., 2015. "The CLIMIX model: A tool to create and evaluate spatially-resolved scenarios of photovoltaic and wind power development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-15.
    4. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    5. Brayshaw, David James & Troccoli, Alberto & Fordham, Rachael & Methven, John, 2011. "The impact of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on wind power generation and its potential predictability: A case study over the UK," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2087-2096.
    6. Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J., 2010. "Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 430-437, January.
    7. Schlachtberger, D.P. & Brown, T. & Schramm, S. & Greiner, M., 2017. "The benefits of cooperation in a highly renewable European electricity network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 469-481.
    8. Isabelle Tobin & Robert Vautard & Irena Balog & François-Marie Bréon & Sonia Jerez & Paolo Ruti & Françoise Thais & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou, 2015. "Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 99-112, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zuo, Jingping & Qian, Cuncun & Su, Bing & Ji, Hao & Xu, Yang & Peng, Zhipeng, 2024. "Evaluation of future renewable energy drought risk in China based on CMIP6," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    2. van der Wiel, K. & Stoop, L.P. & van Zuijlen, B.R.H. & Blackport, R. & van den Broek, M.A. & Selten, F.M., 2019. "Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 261-275.
    3. Hu, Jing & Li, Yu & Wörman, Anders & Zhang, Bingyao & Ding, Wei & Zhou, Huicheng, 2023. "Reducing energy storage demand by spatial-temporal coordination of multienergy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    4. van Beuzekom, Iris & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Slootweg, Han, 2021. "Framework for optimization of long-term, multi-period investment planning of integrated urban energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    5. Luzia, Graziela & Koivisto, Matti J. & Hahmann, Andrea N., 2023. "Validating EURO-CORDEX climate simulations for modelling European wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    6. Bloomfield, H.C. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Troccoli, A. & Goodess, C.M. & De Felice, M. & Dubus, L. & Bett, P.E. & Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., 2021. "Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1062-1075.
    7. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Yao, Ling & Qin, Jun & Liu, Tang, 2023. "Impact of climate changes on the stability of solar energy: Evidence from observations and reanalysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 726-736.
    8. Ah-Voun, David & Chyong, Chi Kong & Li, Carmen, 2024. "Europe's energy security: From Russian dependence to renewable reliance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    9. van Zuijlen, Bas & Zappa, William & Turkenburg, Wim & van der Schrier, Gerard & van den Broek, Machteld, 2019. "Cost-optimal reliable power generation in a deep decarbonisation future," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Shan Liang & Huiming Zhang & Tianyi Zhang, 2024. "Effect of Governmental Subsidies on Green Energy Supply Chains: A Perspective of Meteorological Disasters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-17, August.
    11. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    12. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Chen, Yongfei & Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "The impacts of El Niño-southern oscillation on renewable energy stock markets: Evidence from quantile perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    13. Takele Ferede Agajie & Armand Fopah-Lele & Isaac Amoussou & Ahmed Ali & Baseem Khan & Om Prakash Mahela & Ramakrishna S. S. Nuvvula & Divine Khan Ngwashi & Emmanuel Soriano Flores & Emmanuel Tanyi, 2023. "Techno-Economic Analysis and Optimization of Hybrid Renewable Energy System with Energy Storage under Two Operational Modes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-31, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van der Wiel, K. & Stoop, L.P. & van Zuijlen, B.R.H. & Blackport, R. & van den Broek, M.A. & Selten, F.M., 2019. "Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 261-275.
    2. Aissatou Ndiaye & Mounkaila Saley Moussa & Cheikh Dione & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Jan Bliefernicht & Laouali Dungall & Harald Kunstmann, 2022. "Projected Changes in Solar PV and Wind Energy Potential over West Africa: An Analysis of CORDEX-CORE Simulations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Abdin, I.F. & Fang, Y.-P. & Zio, E., 2019. "A modeling and optimization framework for power systems design with operational flexibility and resilience against extreme heat waves and drought events," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 706-719.
    4. Vázquez, Rubén & Cabos, William & Nieto-Borge, José Carlos & Gutiérrez, Claudia, 2024. "Complementarity of offshore energy resources on the Spanish coasts: Wind, wave, and photovoltaic energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    5. Jerez, S. & Tobin, I. & Turco, M. & Jiménez-Guerrero, P. & Vautard, R. & Montávez, J.P., 2019. "Future changes, or lack thereof, in the temporal variability of the combined wind-plus-solar power production in Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 251-260.
    6. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.
    7. Jerez, S. & Thais, F. & Tobin, I. & Wild, M. & Colette, A. & Yiou, P. & Vautard, R., 2015. "The CLIMIX model: A tool to create and evaluate spatially-resolved scenarios of photovoltaic and wind power development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-15.
    8. Früh, Wolf-Gerrit, 2013. "Long-term wind resource and uncertainty estimation using wind records from Scotland as example," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1014-1026.
    9. Bonjean Stanton, Muriel C. & Dessai, Suraje & Paavola, Jouni, 2016. "A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1148-1159.
    10. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Tan, Q. & Liu, L., 2011. "An integrated approach for climate-change impact analysis and adaptation planning under multi-level uncertainties. Part II. Case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3051-3073, August.
    11. De Felice, Matteo & Soares, Marta Bruno & Alessandri, Andrea & Troccoli, Alberto, 2019. "Scoping the potential usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts for solar power management," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 215-223.
    12. Schlott, Markus & Kies, Alexander & Brown, Tom & Schramm, Stefan & Greiner, Martin, 2018. "The impact of climate change on a cost-optimal highly renewable European electricity network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1645-1659.
    13. Soares, Pedro M.M. & Lima, Daniela C.A. & Cardoso, Rita M. & Nascimento, Manuel L. & Semedo, Alvaro, 2017. "Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 72-90.
    14. Savvakis, Nikolaos & Tsoutsos, Theocharis, 2015. "Performance assessment of a thin film photovoltaic system under actual Mediterranean climate conditions in the island of Crete," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1435-1455.
    15. Simon Watson, 2014. "Quantifying the variability of wind energy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 330-342, July.
    16. Claudia Gutiérrez & Alba de la Vara & Juan Jesús González-Alemán & Miguel Ángel Gaertner, 2021. "Impact of Climate Change on Wind and Photovoltaic Energy Resources in the Canary Islands and Adjacent Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-32, April.
    17. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    18. Koletsis, I. & Kotroni, V. & Lagouvardos, K. & Soukissian, T., 2016. "Assessment of offshore wind speed and power potential over the Mediterranean and the Black Seas under future climate changes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 234-245.
    19. Alexis Tantet & Marc Stéfanon & Philippe Drobinski & Jordi Badosa & Silvia Concettini & Anna Cretì & Claudia D’Ambrosio & Dimitri Thomopulos & Peter Tankov, 2019. "e 4 clim 1.0: The Energy for a Climate Integrated Model: Description and Application to Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-37, November.
    20. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:97:y:2018:i:c:p:497-508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.