IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v109y2016icp1148-1159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Bonjean Stanton, Muriel C.
  • Dessai, Suraje
  • Paavola, Jouni

Abstract

Understanding the impacts of CV&C2 (climate variability and change) on electricity systems is paramount for operators preparing for weather-related disruptions, policymakers deciding on future directions of energy policies and European decision makers shaping research programs. This study conducted a systematic literature review to collate consistent patterns of impacts of CV&C on electricity systems in Europe. We found that, in the absence of adaptation and for current capacity, thermal electricity generation will decrease for the near term to mid-21st century3 (NT-MC) and the end of the 21st century4 (EC). In contrast, renewable electricity generation will increase for hydroelectricity in Northern Europe (NT-MC and EC), for solar electricity in Germany (NT-MC) and the United Kingdom and Spain (NT-MC and EC) and for wind electricity in the Iberian Peninsula (NT-MC) and over the Baltic and Aegean Sea (NT-MC and EC). Although the knowledge frontier in this area has advanced, the evidence available remains patchy. Future assessments should not only address some of the gaps identified but also better contextualise their results against those of earlier assessments. This review could provide a starting point for doing so.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonjean Stanton, Muriel C. & Dessai, Suraje & Paavola, Jouni, 2016. "A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1148-1159.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:109:y:2016:i:c:p:1148-1159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216305679
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ciscar, Juan-Carlos & Dowling, Paul, 2014. "Integrated assessment of climate impacts and adaptation in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 531-538.
    2. Pašičko, Robert & Branković, Čedo & Šimić, Zdenko, 2012. "Assessment of climate change impacts on energy generation from renewable sources in Croatia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 224-231.
    3. Meleesa Naughton & Richard C. Darton & Fai Fung, 2012. "Could Climate Change Limit Water Availability for Coal-Fired Electricity Generation with Carbon Capture and Storage? A UK Case Study," Energy & Environment, , vol. 23(2-3), pages 265-282, May.
    4. Dirk Rübbelke & Stefan Vögele, 2013. "Short-term distributional consequences of climate change impacts on the power sector: who gains and who loses?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 191-206, January.
    5. Ko, Chiu Yu & Koyama, Mark & Sng, Tuan-Hwee, 2014. "Unified China; Divided Europe," MPRA Paper 60418, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lehner, Bernhard & Czisch, Gregor & Vassolo, Sara, 2005. "The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 839-855, May.
    7. Jane Ebinger & Walter Vergara, 2011. "Climate Impacts on Energy Systems : Key Issues for Energy Sector Adaptation," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2271.
    8. Klein, Daniel R. & Olonscheck, Mady & Walther, Carsten & Kropp, Jürgen P., 2013. "Susceptibility of the European electricity sector to climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 183-193.
    9. Hoffmann, Bastian & Häfele, Sebastian & Karl, Ute, 2013. "Analysis of performance losses of thermal power plants in Germany – A System Dynamics model approach using data from regional climate modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 193-203.
    10. Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J., 2010. "Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 430-437, January.
    11. Isabelle Tobin & Robert Vautard & Irena Balog & François-Marie Bréon & Sonia Jerez & Paolo Ruti & Françoise Thais & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou, 2015. "Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 99-112, January.
    12. James Porter & Suraje Dessai & Emma Tompkins, 2014. "What do we know about UK household adaptation to climate change? A systematic review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 371-379, November.
    13. Mideksa, Torben K. & Kallbekken, Steffen, 2010. "The impact of climate change on the electricity market: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3579-3585, July.
    14. Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares & Pupo Nogueira, Larissa Pinheiro & Fleming, Fernanda Pereira & Troccoli, Alberto & , 2012. "Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-12.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Johann Baumgartner & Katharina Gruber & Sofia G. Simoes & Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan & Johannes Schmidt, 2020. "Less Information, Similar Performance: Comparing Machine Learning-Based Time Series of Wind Power Generation to Renewables.ninja," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Jasiūnas, Justinas & Lund, Peter D. & Mikkola, Jani, 2021. "Energy system resilience – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-346.
    4. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    5. Voisin, N. & Kintner-Meyer, M. & Skaggs, R. & Nguyen, T. & Wu, D. & Dirks, J. & Xie, Y. & Hejazi, M., 2016. "Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 1-12.
    6. Klimenko, V.V. & Fedotova, E.V. & Tereshin, A.G., 2018. "Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1010-1022.
    7. Craig, Michael T. & Cohen, Stuart & Macknick, Jordan & Draxl, Caroline & Guerra, Omar J. & Sengupta, Manajit & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci, Carlo, 2018. "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 255-267.
    8. Figueiredo, Raquel & Nunes, Pedro & Brito, Miguel C., 2021. "The resilience of a decarbonized power system to climate variability: Portuguese case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    9. Figueiredo, Raquel & Nunes, Pedro & Brito, Miguel C., 2018. "Multiyear calibration of simulations of energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 932-939.
    10. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    11. van der Most, L. & van der Wiel, K. & Benders, R.M.J. & Gerbens-Leenes, P.W. & Kerkmans, P. & Bintanja, R., 2022. "Extreme events in the European renewable power system: Validation of a modeling framework to estimate renewable electricity production and demand from meteorological data," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1183-1217.
    13. Ignacio Losada Carreño & Michael T. Craig & Michael Rossol & Moetasim Ashfaq & Fulden Batibeniz & Sue Ellen Haupt & Caroline Draxl & Bri-Mathias Hodge & Carlo Brancucci, 2020. "Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 745-766, November.
    14. Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A., 2019. "Business-as-usual redefined: Energy systems under climate-damaged economies warrant review of nationally determined contributions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 862-868.
    15. Flora, Maria & Tankov, Peter, 2023. "Green investment and asset stranding under transition scenario uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    16. Thomazoni, André Luis Ribeiro & Ermel, Conrado & Schneider, Paulo Smith & Vieira, Lara Werncke & Hunt, Julian David & Ferreira, Sandro Barros & Rech, Charles & Gouvêa, Vinicius Santorum, 2022. "Influence of operational parameters on the performance of Tesla turbines: Experimental investigation of a small-scale turbine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    17. Shuai, Hang & Li, Fangxing & Zhu, Jinxiang & Tingen II, William Jerome & Mukherjee, Srijib, 2024. "Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    18. Jonas Savelsberg & Moritz Schillinger & Ingmar Schlecht & Hannes Weigt, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    19. Burillo, Daniel & Chester, Mikhail V. & Pincetl, Stephanie & Fournier, Eric, 2019. "Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 943-953.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    2. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    3. Maryse Labriet & Santosh Joshi & Marc Vielle & Philip Holden & Neil Edwards & Amit Kanudia & Richard Loulou & Frédéric Babonneau, 2015. "Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1111-1136, October.
    4. Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva & Pahle, Michael & Knopf, Brigitte, 2016. "Strategies against shocks in power systems – An analysis for the case of Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 455-465.
    5. Silvio Pereira-Cardenal & Henrik Madsen & Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen & Niels Riegels & Roar Jensen & Birger Mo & Ivar Wangensteen & Peter Bauer-Gottwein, 2014. "Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 351-364, October.
    6. Chen, Hao & Liu, Simin & Liu, Qiufeng & Shi, Xueli & Wei, Wendong & Han, Rong & Küfeoğlu, Sinan, 2021. "Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Engeland, Kolbjørn & Borga, Marco & Creutin, Jean-Dominique & François, Baptiste & Ramos, Maria-Helena & Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2017. "Space-time variability of climate variables and intermittent renewable electricity production – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 600-617.
    8. Lucas, Edimilson Costa & Mendes-Da-Silva, Wesley, 2018. "Impact of climate on firm value: Evidence from the electric power industry in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 359-368.
    9. Wang, Bing & Ke, Ruo-Yu & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2014. "China׳s regional assessment of renewable energy vulnerability to climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-195.
    10. Jonas Savelsberg & Moritz Schillinger & Ingmar Schlecht & Hannes Weigt, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    11. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    12. Pérez, Juan C. & González, Albano & Díaz, Juan P. & Expósito, Francisco J. & Felipe, Jonatan, 2019. "Climate change impact on future photovoltaic resource potential in an orographically complex archipelago, the Canary Islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 749-759.
    13. Pechan, Anna & Eisenack, Klaus, 2014. "The impact of heat waves on electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 63-71.
    14. Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares & Pupo Nogueira, Larissa Pinheiro & Fleming, Fernanda Pereira & Troccoli, Alberto & , 2012. "Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-12.
    15. Viviescas, Cindy & Lima, Lucas & Diuana, Fabio A. & Vasquez, Eveline & Ludovique, Camila & Silva, Gabriela N. & Huback, Vanessa & Magalar, Leticia & Szklo, Alexandre & Lucena, André F.P. & Schaeffer, , 2019. "Contribution of Variable Renewable Energy to increase energy security in Latin America: Complementarity and climate change impacts on wind and solar resources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Fanny Groundstroem & Sirkku Juhola, 2019. "A framework for identifying cross-border impacts of climate change on the energy sector," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 3-15, March.
    17. Hilden, Mikael & Huuki, Hannu & Kivisaari, Visa & Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria, 2018. "The importance of transnational impacts of climate change in a power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 418-425.
    18. Simon Parkinson & Ned Djilali, 2015. "Robust response to hydro-climatic change in electricity generation planning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 475-489, June.
    19. Pierre Mukheibir, 2013. "Potential consequences of projected climate change impacts on hydroelectricity generation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(1), pages 67-78, November.
    20. Soares, Pedro M.M. & Lima, Daniela C.A. & Cardoso, Rita M. & Nascimento, Manuel L. & Semedo, Alvaro, 2017. "Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 72-90.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:109:y:2016:i:c:p:1148-1159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.