IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v170y2019icp862-868.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Business-as-usual redefined: Energy systems under climate-damaged economies warrant review of nationally determined contributions

Author

Listed:
  • Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A.

Abstract

This paper presents a new approach to incorporate climate damages in the BAU emissions baselines. The shared socio-economic pathways framework is used to inform country-level changes in the mean surface temperature for the climate projections associated with each scenario. The temperature changes are used to calculate the economic damages using empirical estimates of climate effects on GDP growth. Finally, an energy system model is used under the original socio-economic assumptions and the climate-damaged assumptions, illustrating the indirect effect of climate change in a country-level energy system.

Suggested Citation

  • Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A., 2019. "Business-as-usual redefined: Energy systems under climate-damaged economies warrant review of nationally determined contributions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 862-868.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:170:y:2019:i:c:p:862-868
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544218325799
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.205?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    2. Richard S. J. Tol, 2014. "Correction and Update: The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 221-226, Spring.
    3. Lenz, Luciane & Munyehirwe, Anicet & Peters, Jörg & Sievert, Maximiliane, 2017. "Does Large-Scale Infrastructure Investment Alleviate Poverty? Impacts of Rwanda’s Electricity Access Roll-Out Program," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-110.
    4. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39, October.
    5. Akella, A.K. & Saini, R.P. & Sharma, M.P., 2009. "Social, economical and environmental impacts of renewable energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 390-396.
    6. Bonjean Stanton, Muriel C. & Dessai, Suraje & Paavola, Jouni, 2016. "A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1148-1159.
    7. Magnani, Natalia & Vaona, Andrea, 2016. "Access to electricity and socio-economic characteristics: Panel data evidence at the country level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 447-455.
    8. Tully, Stephen, 2006. "The Human Right to Access Electricity," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 30-39, April.
    9. Michel Elzen & Annemiek Admiraal & Mark Roelfsema & Heleen Soest & Andries F. Hof & Nicklas Forsell, 2016. "Contribution of the G20 economies to the global impact of the Paris agreement climate proposals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 655-665, August.
    10. William D. Nordhaus & Andrew Moffat, 2017. "A Survey of Global Impacts of Climate Change: Replication, Survey Methods, and a Statistical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Anthony Patt & Stefan Pfenninger & Johan Lilliestam, 2013. "Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(1), pages 93-102, November.
    12. Massimo Tavoni & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Tino Aboumahboub & Alex Bowen & Katherine Calvin & Emanuele Campiglio & Tom Kober & Jessica Jewell & Gunnar Luderer & Giacomo Ma, 2015. "Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 119-126, February.
    13. Baptiste François & Sara Martino & Lena S. Tøfte & Benoit Hingray & Birger Mo & Jean-Dominique Creutin, 2017. "Effects of Increased Wind Power Generation on Mid-Norway’s Energy Balance under Climate Change: A Market Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    14. Mouratiadou, Ioanna & Biewald, Anne & Pehl, Michaja & Bonsch, Markus & Baumstark, Lavinia & Klein, David & Popp, Alexander & Luderer, Gunnar & Kriegler, Elmar, 2016. "The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 48-58.
    15. Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J., 2010. "Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 430-437, January.
    16. Boehlert, Brent & Strzepek, Kenneth M. & Gebretsadik, Yohannes & Swanson, Richard & McCluskey, Alyssa & Neumann, James E. & McFarland, James & Martinich, Jeremy, 2016. "Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1511-1519.
    17. Hélène Benveniste & Olivier Boucher & Céline Guivarch & Hervé Le Treut & Patrick Criqui, 2018. "Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions," Post-Print hal-01662799, HAL.
    18. Jorgenson, Andrew K. & Alekseyko, Alina & Giedraitis, Vincentas, 2014. "Energy consumption, human well-being and economic development in central and eastern European nations: A cautionary tale of sustainability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 419-427.
    19. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
    20. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & Silva Santos, C., 2017. "Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 29-40.
    21. Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares & Pupo Nogueira, Larissa Pinheiro & Fleming, Fernanda Pereira & Troccoli, Alberto & , 2012. "Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-12.
    22. Lester D. Taylor, 1975. "The Demand for Electricity: A Survey," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 6(1), pages 74-110, Spring.
    23. Tarroja, Brian & AghaKouchak, Amir & Samuelsen, Scott, 2016. "Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower generation and implications on electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 295-305.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. W.J. Wouter Botzen & Tim Nees & Francisco Estrada, 2020. "Temperature Effects on Electricity and Gas Consumption: Empirical Evidence from Mexico and Projections under Future Climate Conditions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-28, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    2. Lomborg, Bjorn, 2020. "Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Craig, Michael T. & Cohen, Stuart & Macknick, Jordan & Draxl, Caroline & Guerra, Omar J. & Sengupta, Manajit & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci, Carlo, 2018. "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 255-267.
    4. Newell, Richard G. & Prest, Brian C. & Sexton, Steven E., 2021. "The GDP-Temperature relationship: Implications for climate change damages," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. Chen, Hao & Liu, Simin & Liu, Qiufeng & Shi, Xueli & Wei, Wendong & Han, Rong & Küfeoğlu, Sinan, 2021. "Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    7. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Jonas Savelsberg & Moritz Schillinger & Ingmar Schlecht & Hannes Weigt, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    9. Tol, Richard S.J., 2019. "A social cost of carbon for (almost) every country," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 555-566.
    10. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    11. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    12. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2021. "The macroeconomic cost of climate volatility," Papers 2108.01617, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    13. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-346.
    14. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    15. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    16. Figueiredo, Raquel & Nunes, Pedro & Brito, Miguel C., 2021. "The resilience of a decarbonized power system to climate variability: Portuguese case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    17. Gerard Meijden & Frederick Ploeg & Cees Withagen, 2017. "Frontiers of Climate Change Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 1-14, September.
    18. Zhong, Ruida & Zhao, Tongtiegang & He, Yanhu & Chen, Xiaohong, 2019. "Hydropower change of the water tower of Asia in 21st century: A case of the Lancang River hydropower base, upper Mekong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 685-696.
    19. Howard, Peter H. & Sterner, Thomas, 2022. "Between Two Worlds: Methodological and Subjective Differences in Climate Impact Meta-Analyses," RFF Working Paper Series 22-10, Resources for the Future.
    20. Engeland, Kolbjørn & Borga, Marco & Creutin, Jean-Dominique & François, Baptiste & Ramos, Maria-Helena & Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2017. "Space-time variability of climate variables and intermittent renewable electricity production – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 600-617.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:170:y:2019:i:c:p:862-868. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.