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Hydropower change of the water tower of Asia in 21st century: A case of the Lancang River hydropower base, upper Mekong

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  • Zhong, Ruida
  • Zhao, Tongtiegang
  • He, Yanhu
  • Chen, Xiaohong

Abstract

This study evaluates the future change in hydropower potential and sustainability of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in 21st century under climate change, using the Lancang River hydropower base (LRHB) in the upper Mekong basin (UMB) as a case study. Future climate projections simulated by five different global climate models (GCMs) individually and the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) distributed hydrological model coupled with a reservoir model are used to project the future hydropower outputs. Results present a generally ideal prospect for hydropower development in the UMB, as most GCMs illustrate overall increasing hydropower outputs of the plants along with the increasing reservoir inflow. The sustainability of the hydropower is also improved in most GCMs, with generally higher reliability and lower vulnerability; however, due to the large impact of increased climate variability, some GCMs show poorer sustainability for the hydropower plants in the future scenarios, even though its overall hydropower outputs are increased. Therefore, the negative influence of the increased variability of some passive GCM projections still indicates the risks for hydropower development in the TP and thus requires consideration. This study is expected to provide reference for further hydropower planning and development over the TP under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhong, Ruida & Zhao, Tongtiegang & He, Yanhu & Chen, Xiaohong, 2019. "Hydropower change of the water tower of Asia in 21st century: A case of the Lancang River hydropower base, upper Mekong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 685-696.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:179:y:2019:i:c:p:685-696
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.059
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    Cited by:

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    3. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    4. Wang, Qianqian & Li, Pengcheng & Zhang, Wenming & Cong, Nan & Xi, Yuqian & Xiao, Lirong & Wang, Yihang & Yao, Weiwei, 2023. "Evaluating the cascade dam construction effects on endemic fish habitat and population status in spawning sites of Lancang River (in Tibet), China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).
    5. Zhong, Ruida & Zhao, Tongtiegang & Chen, Xiaohong, 2021. "Evaluating the tradeoff between hydropower benefit and ecological interest under climate change: How will the water-energy-ecosystem nexus evolve in the upper Mekong basin?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    6. Kunhua Yang & Guilin Han & Jie Zeng & Bin Liang & Rui Qu & Jinke Liu & Man Liu, 2019. "Spatial Variation and Controlling Factors of H and O Isotopes in Lancang River Water, Southwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Jaewon Jung & Sungeun Jung & Junhyeong Lee & Myungjin Lee & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.

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