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Assessment of the impact of climate change on hydropower potential in the Nanliujiang River basin of China

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  • Wang, Hejia
  • Xiao, Weihua
  • Wang, Yicheng
  • Zhao, Yong
  • Lu, Fan
  • Yang, Mingzhi
  • Hou, Baodeng
  • Yang, Heng

Abstract

This study presents a model-based approach for assessing the impact of climate change on hydropower potential in the Nanliujiang River Basin of China. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model was proved to be able to do a good runoff simulation after 1000 times of calibration and validation, while it has greater uncertainty in the simulation of high flow and low flow. Coupling the VIC model with five climate models, the spatial and temporal distributions of water resources in the future are analyzed, and the uncertainty analysis shows that the multi-model ensemble results can more reliably reflect future climate change. Then, the hydropower potential of the whole river basin in the future is analyzed in order to allow for a more realistic picture of future hydropower planning. The results of this study indicate that, different degrees of future alterations in river discharge and the spatial and temporal distributions of water resources have to be expected, leading to an increase of 7.7%–15.6% in hydropower potentials under the scenario of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Hejia & Xiao, Weihua & Wang, Yicheng & Zhao, Yong & Lu, Fan & Yang, Mingzhi & Hou, Baodeng & Yang, Heng, 2019. "Assessment of the impact of climate change on hydropower potential in the Nanliujiang River basin of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 950-959.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:167:y:2019:i:c:p:950-959
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.159
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    Citations

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    1. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    2. Zhong, Ruida & Zhao, Tongtiegang & He, Yanhu & Chen, Xiaohong, 2019. "Hydropower change of the water tower of Asia in 21st century: A case of the Lancang River hydropower base, upper Mekong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 685-696.
    3. Jaewon Jung & Heechan Han & Kyunghun Kim & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Machine Learning-Based Small Hydropower Potential Prediction under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-10, June.
    4. Jaewon Jung & Sungeun Jung & Junhyeong Lee & Myungjin Lee & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.
    5. Esteban Gil & Yerel Morales & Tomás Ochoa, 2021. "Addressing the Effects of Climate Change on Modeling Future Hydroelectric Energy Production in Chile," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-23, January.
    6. He, Guohua & Geng, Chenfan & Zhao, Yong & Wang, Jianhua & Jiang, Shan & Zhu, Yongnan & Wang, Qingming & Wang, Lizhen & Mu, Xing, 2021. "Food habit and climate change impacts on agricultural water security during the peak population period in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    7. Chao Zhang & Changming Ji & Yi Wang & Qian Xiao, 2022. "Flood hydrograph coincidence analysis of the upper Yangtze River and Dongting Lake, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1339-1360, January.
    8. Katerina Spanoudaki & Panayiotis Dimitriadis & Emmanouil A. Varouchakis & Gerald A. Corzo Perez, 2022. "Estimation of Hydropower Potential Using Bayesian and Stochastic Approaches for Streamflow Simulation and Accounting for the Intermediate Storage Retention," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Hao-Han Tsao & Yih-Guang Leu & Li-Fen Chou & Chao-Yang Tsao, 2021. "A Method of Multi-Stage Reservoir Water Level Forecasting Systems: A Case Study of Techi Hydropower in Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-21, June.

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