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How Will Hydroelectric Power Generation Develop under Climate Change Scenarios? A Case Study in the Upper Danube Basin

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  • Franziska Koch

    (Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Luisenstr. 37, Munich 80333, Germany)

  • Monika Prasch

    (Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Luisenstr. 37, Munich 80333, Germany)

  • Heike Bach

    (VISTA GmbH, Remote Sensing in Geosciences, Gabelsbergerstrasse 51, Munich 80333, Germany)

  • Wolfram Mauser

    (Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Luisenstr. 37, Munich 80333, Germany)

  • Florian Appel

    (VISTA GmbH, Remote Sensing in Geosciences, Gabelsbergerstrasse 51, Munich 80333, Germany)

  • Markus Weber

    (Commission for Geodesy and Glaciology, Bavarian Academy of Sciences and Humanities, Alfons-Goppel-Str. 11, Munich 80539, Germany)

Abstract

Climate change has a large impact on water resources and thus on hydropower. Hydroelectric power generation is closely linked to the regional hydrological situation of a watershed and reacts sensitively to changes in water quantity and seasonality. The development of hydroelectric power generation in the Upper Danube basin was modelled for two future decades, namely 2021–2030 and 2051–2060, using a special hydropower module coupled with the physically-based hydrological model PROMET. To cover a possible range of uncertainties, 16 climate scenarios were taken as meteorological drivers which were defined from different ensemble outputs of a stochastic climate generator, based on the IPCC-SRES-A1B emission scenario and four regional climate trends. Depending on the trends, the results show a slight to severe decline in hydroelectric power generation. Whilst the mean summer values indicate a decrease, the mean winter values display an increase. To show past and future regional differences within the Upper Danube basin, three hydropower plants at individual locations were selected. Inter-annual differences originate predominately from unequal contributions of the runoff compartments rain, snow- and ice-melt.

Suggested Citation

  • Franziska Koch & Monika Prasch & Heike Bach & Wolfram Mauser & Florian Appel & Markus Weber, 2011. "How Will Hydroelectric Power Generation Develop under Climate Change Scenarios? A Case Study in the Upper Danube Basin," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(10), pages 1-34, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:4:y:2011:i:10:p:1508-1541:d:14214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lehner, Bernhard & Czisch, Gregor & Vassolo, Sara, 2005. "The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 839-855, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Malagò & Fayçal Bouraoui & Ad De Roo, 2018. "Diagnosis and Treatment of the SWAT Hydrological Response Using the Budyko Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Jaewon Jung & Heechan Han & Kyunghun Kim & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Machine Learning-Based Small Hydropower Potential Prediction under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-10, June.
    3. Jaewon Jung & Sungeun Jung & Junhyeong Lee & Myungjin Lee & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.
    4. Gaudard, Ludovic & Avanzi, Francesco & De Michele, Carlo, 2018. "Seasonal aspects of the energy-water nexus: The case of a run-of-the-river hydropower plant," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 604-612.
    5. Byman Hamududu & Aanund Killingtveit, 2012. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, February.

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