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Large-scale assessment of hydropower potential: current state and future projections for Poland

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  • Marcinkowski, Paweł

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on hydropower potential in Poland through a model-based approach. Utilizing hydrological and climate models, the research integrates climate variables, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and streamflow projections to assess the dynamics shaping hydropower development. The study employs the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT), calibrated and validated for the entire territory of Poland. Climate projections from bias-corrected GCM-RCM runs within the EURO-CORDEX, spanning the period from 2006 to 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), serve as input for the SWAT model. The study incorporates the often-neglected changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration, a crucial factor for accurately modelling streamflow dynamics, frequently overlooked in other studies. The findings reveal a total hydropower potential calculated for Poland during the baseline period, reaching 53.8 TWh year−1, with projections indicating an increase to 59.9 TWh year−1 under RCP4.5 for the near future (2041–2060) and 63.5 TWh year−1 for the far future (2081–2100), constituting relative increases of 11 % and 18 %, respectively, compared to the baseline period. Under RCP8.5, the hydropower potential is projected to increase to 57.2 TWh year−1 for the near future and 72.3 TWh year−1 for the far future, representing relative increases of 6 % and 34 %, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcinkowski, Paweł, 2025. "Large-scale assessment of hydropower potential: current state and future projections for Poland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:328:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225023424
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136700
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