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Food habit and climate change impacts on agricultural water security during the peak population period in China

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  • He, Guohua
  • Geng, Chenfan
  • Zhao, Yong
  • Wang, Jianhua
  • Jiang, Shan
  • Zhu, Yongnan
  • Wang, Qingming
  • Wang, Lizhen
  • Mu, Xing

Abstract

Rapid changes in food habits, climate, and population size are expected to substantially challenge the sustainable use of China’s agricultural water supply, undoubtedly increasing the uncertainty of China’s food security. This study analyzes the change characteristics of China’s food habits during 1981–2017, and the amount agricultural water for food production during peak population period (2029–2033) has also projected based on different food habits and climate scenarios. The results show that China’s food habits changed dramatically from mainly vegetable-dominated to animal-dominated during 1981–2017. Compared to the historical period (2013–2017), the decrease in precipitation and the increase in evapotranspiration in the peak population period will increase the drought degree in China’s thirteen main food producing provinces. During peak population period, the irrigation water demand will increase to 298.0–314.7 billion m3 under current food habits and 319.4–337.8 billion m3 under recommended food habits in different climate scenarios, respectively; these values are much higher than those of the historical period (e.g., 195.7 billion m3 in 2017). Moreover, compared with 2017, China’s future per capita irrigation water demand is expected to increase by 63.3–74.8 m3 due to climate change; if food habit changes are further adopted, then per capita irrigation water demand is expected to increase even more, by 77.9–90.5 m3. This study also proposes various measures to ensure China’s agricultural water security based on the presented findings.

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  • He, Guohua & Geng, Chenfan & Zhao, Yong & Wang, Jianhua & Jiang, Shan & Zhu, Yongnan & Wang, Qingming & Wang, Lizhen & Mu, Xing, 2021. "Food habit and climate change impacts on agricultural water security during the peak population period in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:258:y:2021:i:c:s0378377421004881
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107211
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    2. Elzaki, Raga M., 2023. "Challenges of food security in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries: an empirical analysis of fixed and random effects," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 9(1), March.
    3. Jinyu Shen & Wei Duan & Yuqi Wang & Yijing Zhang, 2022. "Household Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change in West China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Danyang Gao & Albert S. Chen & Fayyaz Ali Memon, 2024. "A Systematic Review of Methods for Investigating Climate Change Impacts on Water-Energy-Food Nexus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-43, January.

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