IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jforec/v5y2023i2p22-423d1125244.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projected Future Flooding Pattern of Wabash River in Indiana and Fountain Creek in Colorado: An Assessment Utilizing Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data

Author

Listed:
  • Swarupa Paudel

    (School of Civil, Environmental, and Infrastructure Engineering, Southern Illinois University, 1230 Lincoln Drive, Carbondale, IL 62901, USA)

  • Neekita Joshi

    (STV Inc., 1818 Market St, Suite 2300, Philadelphia, PA 19103, USA)

  • Ajay Kalra

    (School of Civil, Environmental, and Infrastructure Engineering, Southern Illinois University, 1230 Lincoln Drive, Carbondale, IL 62901, USA)

Abstract

Climate change is considered one of the biggest challenges around the globe as it has been causing alterations in hydrological extremes. Climate change and variability have an impact on future streamflow conditions, water quality, and ecological balance, which are further aggravated by anthropogenic activities such as changes in land use. This study intends to provide insight into potential changes in future streamflow conditions leading to changes in flooding patterns. Flooding is an inevitable, frequently occurring natural event that affects the environment and the socio-economic structure of its surroundings. This study evaluates the flooding pattern and inundation mapping of two different rivers, Wabash River in Indiana and Fountain Creek in Colorado, using the observed gage data and different climate models. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) streamflow data are considered for the future forecast of the flood. The cumulative distribution function transformation (CDF-t) method is used to correct bias in the CMIP6 streamflow data. The Generalized Extreme Value (L-Moment) method is used for the estimation of the frequency of flooding for 100-year and 500-year return periods. Civil GeoHECRAS is used for each flood event to map flood extent and examine flood patterns. The findings from this study show that there will be a rapid increase in flooding events even in small creeks soon in the upcoming years. This study seeks to assist floodplain managers in strategic planning to adopt state-of-the-art information and provide a sustainable strategy to regions with similar difficulties for floodplain management, to improve socioeconomic life, and to promote environmental sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Swarupa Paudel & Neekita Joshi & Ajay Kalra, 2023. "Projected Future Flooding Pattern of Wabash River in Indiana and Fountain Creek in Colorado: An Assessment Utilizing Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:5:y:2023:i:2:p:22-423:d:1125244
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/2/22/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/2/22/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alen Shrestha & Md Mafuzur Rahaman & Ajay Kalra & Rohit Jogineedi & Pankaj Maheshwari, 2020. "Climatological Drought Forecasting Using Bias Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data: A Case Study for India," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-26, April.
    2. Nigel Arnell & Simon Gosling, 2016. "The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 387-401, February.
    3. Jejal Reddy Bathi & Himangshu S. Das, 2016. "Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-12, February.
    4. Indira Pokhrel & Ajay Kalra & Md Mafuzur Rahaman & Ranjeet Thakali, 2020. "Forecasting of Future Flooding and Risk Assessment under CMIP6 Climate Projection in Neuse River, North Carolina," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-23, August.
    5. Ciro Apollonio & Gabriella Balacco & Antonio Novelli & Eufemia Tarantino & Alberto Ferruccio Piccinni, 2016. "Land Use Change Impact on Flooding Areas: The Case Study of Cervaro Basin (Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-18, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Indira Pokhrel & Ajay Kalra & Md Mafuzur Rahaman & Ranjeet Thakali, 2020. "Forecasting of Future Flooding and Risk Assessment under CMIP6 Climate Projection in Neuse River, North Carolina," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-23, August.
    2. Syeda Nadia Kiran & Muhammad Farooq Iqbal & Irfan Mahmood, 2023. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on flooding under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 scenarios in the river Chenab, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 1005-1033, May.
    3. Philip Antwi-Agyei & Frank Baffour-Ata & Sarah Koomson & Nana Kwame Kyeretwie & Nana Barimah Nti & Afia Oforiwaa Owusu & Fukaiha Abdul Razak, 2023. "Drivers and coping mechanisms for floods: experiences of residents in urban Kumasi, Ghana," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2477-2500, March.
    4. Maisa’a W. Shammout, 2023. "Calculation and Management of Water Supply and Demand under Land Use/Cover Changes in the Yarmouk River Basin Governorates in Jordan," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-13, July.
    5. Bushra Khalid & Bueh Cholaw & Débora Souza Alvim & Shumaila Javeed & Junaid Aziz Khan & Muhammad Asif Javed & Azmat Hayat Khan, 2018. "Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 971-993, June.
    6. Laura Devitt & Jeffrey Neal & Gemma Coxon & James Savage & Thorsten Wagener, 2023. "Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Shao Sun & Zunya Wang & Chuanye Hu & Ge Gao, 2021. "Understanding Climate Hazard Patterns and Urban Adaptation Measures in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Hsin-I Shih & Tzu-Yuan Chao & Yi-Ting Huang & Yi-Fang Tu & Tzu-Ching Sung & Jung-Der Wang & Chia-Ming Chang, 2020. "Increased Medical Visits and Mortality among Adults with Cardiovascular Diseases in Severely Affected Areas after Typhoon Morakot," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-16, September.
    9. Osberghaus, Daniel & Reif, Christiane, 2021. "How do different compensation schemes and loss experience affect insurance decisions? Experimental evidence from two independent and heterogeneous samples," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Samantaray, Alok Kumar & Ramadas, Meenu & Panda, Rabindra Kumar, 2022. "Changes in drought characteristics based on rainfall pattern drought index and the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    11. Rosa Rivieccio & Lorenzo Sallustio & Massimo Paolanti & Matteo Vizzarri & Marco Marchetti, 2017. "Where Land Use Changes Occur: Using Soil Features to Understand the Economic Trends in Agricultural Lands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, January.
    12. Jong Mun Lee & Minji Park & Bae Kyung Park & Jiyeon Choi & Jinsun Kim & Kyunghyun Kim & Yongseok Kim, 2021. "Evaluation of Water Circulation by Modeling: An Example of Nonpoint Source Management in the Yeongsan River Watershed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-17, August.
    13. Gabriela Czibula & Andrei Mihai & Alexandra-Ioana Albu & Istvan-Gergely Czibula & Sorin Burcea & Abdelkader Mezghani, 2021. "AutoNowP : An Approach Using Deep Autoencoders for Precipitation Nowcasting Based on Weather Radar Reflectivity Prediction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Tao Yamamoto & So Kazama & Yoshiya Touge & Hayata Yanagihara & Tsuyoshi Tada & Takeshi Yamashita & Hiroyuki Takizawa, 2021. "Evaluation of flood damage reduction throughout Japan from adaptation measures taken under a range of emissions mitigation scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-18, April.
    15. Stanislav Ruman & Radek Tichavský & Karel Šilhán & Manolis G. Grillakis, 2021. "Palaeoflood discharge estimation using dendrogeomorphic methods, rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling—a case study from southern Crete," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1721-1742, January.
    16. Jiangmei Xiong & Yulin Hswen & John A. Naslund, 2020. "Digital Surveillance for Monitoring Environmental Health Threats: A Case Study Capturing Public Opinion from Twitter about the 2019 Chennai Water Crisis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-15, July.
    17. Dayang Wang & Dagang Wang & Chongxun Mo & Yi Du, 2021. "Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1585-1608, September.
    18. Wijesiri, Buddhi & Hettiarachchi, Akash, 2021. "How gender disparities in urban and rural areas influence access to safe drinking water," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Choi, Hyunhong & Shin, Jungwoo & Woo, JongRoul, 2018. "Effect of electricity generation mix on battery electric vehicle adoption and its environmental impact," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 13-24.
    20. Nigel W. Arnell & Jason A. Lowe & Ben Lloyd-Hughes & Timothy J. Osborn, 2018. "The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 61-76, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:5:y:2023:i:2:p:22-423:d:1125244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.