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Projection of near-future climate change and agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia under RCP8.5

Author

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  • Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen

    (University of Phayao
    University of Phayao)

  • Pavinee Chanvichit

    (University of Phayao)

Abstract

In order to plan for agricultural irrigation, the drought risk and amount of water needed for crops must be well studied. In this work, we apply the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Crop Water Need (CWN) using input data from a fine-resolution Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) to assess the risk of future agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia from 2020 to 2029. The NRCM was performed with resolutions of 60 and 10-km grid spacing for the present (1990–1999) and the future (2020–2029). The model employs initial and boundary conditions from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) for meteorological variables. Two simulations, present-day (1990–1999) and future (2020–2029), were conducted under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario. In general, the comparison between the NRCM predictions and observed data shows that the NRCM reasonably predicts precipitation and 2-m temperature with a high correlation of 0.89–0.98 and index of agreement (IOA) values ranging from 0.76 to 0.95. The future precipitation tends to decrease by (−1)–(1) mm/day, while the temperature will increase by up to 2–3 °C, which are favorable conditions for drought risk. Additionally, the SPI values between (− 1.5) and 0 for both the dry and rainy seasons indicate a high possibility of drought events in the future. There seemed to be some evidence of drought risk in this region, but the calculation of CWN indicates that the region will remain relatively water rich for agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Pavinee Chanvichit, 2019. "Projection of near-future climate change and agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia under RCP8.5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(2), pages 175-193, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:155:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02442-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02442-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Done & Greg Holland & Cindy Bruyère & L. Leung & Asuka Suzuki-Parker, 2015. "Modeling high-impact weather and climate: lessons from a tropical cyclone perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 381-395, April.
    2. Kevin E. Trenberth & Aiguo Dai & Gerard van der Schrier & Philip D. Jones & Jonathan Barichivich & Keith R. Briffa & Justin Sheffield, 2014. "Global warming and changes in drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 17-22, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Guohua & Geng, Chenfan & Zhao, Yong & Wang, Jianhua & Jiang, Shan & Zhu, Yongnan & Wang, Qingming & Wang, Lizhen & Mu, Xing, 2021. "Food habit and climate change impacts on agricultural water security during the peak population period in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    2. Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Pavinee Chanvichit & Radshadaporn Janta & Vanisa Surapipith, 2021. "Projection of Rice and Maize Productions in Northern Thailand under Climate Change Scenario RCP8.5," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Pavinee Chanvichit, 2022. "Application of the WRF-DSSAT Modeling System for Assessment of the Nitrogen Fertilizer Used for Improving Rice Production in Northern Thailand," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-15, August.
    4. Chloe Sutcliffe & Ian Holman & Daniel Goodwin & Gloria Salmoral & Liwa Pardthaisong & Supattra Visessri & Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit & Dolores Rey, 2024. "Which factors determine adaptation to drought amongst farmers in Northern Thailand? Investigating farmers’ appraisals of risk and adaptation and their exposure to drought information communications as," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-21, January.

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