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Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Tavoni

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
    Politecnico di Milano)

  • Elmar Kriegler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Detlef P. van Vuuren

    (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University (UU)
    Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL))

  • Tino Aboumahboub

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Alex Bowen

    (Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE))

  • Katherine Calvin

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/Joint Global Change Research Institute (PNNL/JGCRI))

  • Emanuele Campiglio

    (Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE))

  • Tom Kober

    (Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN))

  • Jessica Jewell

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Gunnar Luderer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Giacomo Marangoni

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
    Politecnico di Milano)

  • David McCollum

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Mariësse van Sluisveld

    (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University (UU)
    Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL))

  • Anne Zimmer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Bob van der Zwaan

    (Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN)
    University of Amsterdam, Faculty of Science
    Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies)

Abstract

Experts using integrated assessment models to analyse the effects of climate change policy, have recently engaged in model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) to generate conclusions robust to different models' specifications. This Review synthesises results from the most comprehensive MIP that focuses on the different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Tavoni & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Tino Aboumahboub & Alex Bowen & Katherine Calvin & Emanuele Campiglio & Tom Kober & Jessica Jewell & Gunnar Luderer & Giacomo Ma, 2015. "Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 119-126, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:2:d:10.1038_nclimate2475
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2475
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, ZhongXiang, "undated". "Making China the transition to a low-carbon economy: Key challenges and responses," Working Papers 249516, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    2. Chul-Ho Kim & Seung-Eon Lee & Kwang-Ho Lee & Kang-Soo Kim, 2019. "Detailed Comparison of the Operational Characteristics of Energy-Conserving HVAC Systems during the Cooling Season," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-29, October.
    3. Antonio Alberto Rodríguez Sousa & Carlos Parra-López & Samir Sayadi-Gmada & Jesús M. Barandica & Alejandro J. Rescia, 2021. "Impacts of Erosion on the Sustainability of Organic Olive Groves: A Case Study (Estepa Region, Southwestern Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-20, July.
    4. ZhongXiang Zhang, 2017. "Are China's climate commitments in a post‐Paris agreement sufficiently ambitious?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(2), March.
    5. Fang, Kai & Li, Chenglin & Tang, Yiqi & He, Jianjian & Song, Junnian, 2022. "China’s pathways to peak carbon emissions: New insights from various industrial sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    6. Kornelis Blok & Angélica Afanador & Irina van der Hoorn & Tom Berg & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Detlef P. van Vuuren, 2020. "Assessment of Sectoral Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potentials for 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Adriana Marcucci & Socrates Kypreos & Evangelos Panos, 2017. "The road to achieving the long-term Paris targets: energy transition and the role of direct air capture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 181-193, September.
    8. Frederick Ploeg, 2018. "The safe carbon budget," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 47-59, March.
    9. Böhringer, Christoph & Keller, Andreas & Bortolamedi, Markus & Rahmeier Seyffarth, Anelise, 2016. "Good things do not always come in threes: On the excess cost of overlapping regulation in EU climate policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 502-508.
    10. Mark M. Dekker & Vassilis Daioglou & Robert Pietzcker & Renato Rodrigues & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Francesco Dalla Longa & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Amir Fattahi & Theofano Fotiou & Panagiotis, 2023. "Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 1395-1404, December.
    11. Elzen, Michel den & Fekete, Hanna & Höhne, Niklas & Admiraal, Annemiek & Forsell, Nicklas & Hof, Andries F. & Olivier, Jos G.J. & Roelfsema, Mark & van Soest, Heleen, 2016. "Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 224-236.
    12. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Godin, Antoine & Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Trsek, Stefan, 2021. "Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    13. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    14. Bjoern Soergel & Elmar Kriegler & Isabelle Weindl & Sebastian Rauner & Alois Dirnaichner & Constantin Ruhe & Matthias Hofmann & Nico Bauer & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Marian Leimbac, 2021. "A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 656-664, August.
    15. Tvinnereim, Endre & Ivarsflaten, Elisabeth, 2016. "Fossil fuels, employment, and support for climate policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 364-371.
    16. Chul-Ho Kim & Seung-Eon Lee & Kang-Soo Kim, 2018. "Analysis of Energy Saving Potential in High-Performance Building Technologies under Korean Climatic Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, April.
    17. Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A., 2019. "Business-as-usual redefined: Energy systems under climate-damaged economies warrant review of nationally determined contributions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 862-868.
    18. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Haoyue Liang & Fengqi You, 2023. "Reshoring silicon photovoltaics manufacturing contributes to decarbonization and climate change mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-19, December.
    20. Haris Doukas & Alexandros Nikas & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto & Annela Anger-Kraavi, 2018. "From Integrated to Integrative: Delivering on the Paris Agreement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-10, July.
    21. Polzin, Friedemann & Sanders, Mark, 2020. "How to finance the transition to low-carbon energy in Europe?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

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