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Projected Changes in Solar PV and Wind Energy Potential over West Africa: An Analysis of CORDEX-CORE Simulations

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  • Aissatou Ndiaye

    (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Uses (WASCAL) Doctoral Research Program in Climate Change and Energy (DRP-CCE), Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey BP 10662, Niger)

  • Mounkaila Saley Moussa

    (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Uses (WASCAL) Doctoral Research Program in Climate Change and Energy (DRP-CCE), Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey BP 10662, Niger
    Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques, Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey BP 10662, Niger)

  • Cheikh Dione

    (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique de Paris, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CEDEX, 91128 Palaiseau, France)

  • Windmanagda Sawadogo

    (Regional Climate and Hydrology, Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86135 Augsburg, Germany)

  • Jan Bliefernicht

    (Regional Climate and Hydrology, Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86135 Augsburg, Germany)

  • Laouali Dungall

    (Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques, Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey BP 10662, Niger)

  • Harald Kunstmann

    (Regional Climate and Hydrology, Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86135 Augsburg, Germany
    Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpin, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany)

Abstract

Renewable energy development is growing fast and is expected to expand in the next decades in West Africa as a contribution to addressing the power demand and climate change mitigation. However, the future impacts of climate change on solar PV and the wind energy potential in the region are still unclear. This study investigates the expected future impacts of climate change on solar PV and wind energy potential over West Africa using an ensemble of three regional climate models (RCMs). Each RCM is driven by three global climate models (GCMs) from the new coordinated high-resolution output for regional evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Two projection periods were used: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2071–2100). For the model evaluation, reanalysis data from ERA5 and satellite-based climate data (SARAH-2) were used. The models and their ensemble mean (hereafter Mean) show acceptable performance for the simulations of the solar PV potential, the wind power density, and related variables with some biases. The Mean predicts a general decrease in the solar PV potential over the region of about −2% in the near future and −4% in the far future. The wind power density (WPD) is expected to increase by about 20% in the near future and 40% in the far future. The changes for solar PV potential seem to be consistent, although the intensity differs according to the RCM used. For the WPD, there are some discrepancies among the RCMs in terms of intensity and direction. This study can guide governments and policymakers in decision making for future solar and wind energy projects in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Aissatou Ndiaye & Mounkaila Saley Moussa & Cheikh Dione & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Jan Bliefernicht & Laouali Dungall & Harald Kunstmann, 2022. "Projected Changes in Solar PV and Wind Energy Potential over West Africa: An Analysis of CORDEX-CORE Simulations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-22, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:24:p:9602-:d:1006939
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Rekha Guchhait & Biswajit Sarkar, 2023. "Increasing Growth of Renewable Energy: A State of Art," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-29, March.

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