IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v112y2019icp706-719.html

A modeling and optimization framework for power systems design with operational flexibility and resilience against extreme heat waves and drought events

Author

Listed:
  • Abdin, I.F.
  • Fang, Y.-P.
  • Zio, E.

Abstract

Operational flexibility is an important attribute for the design of sustainable power systems with a high share of intermittent renewable energy sources (IRES). Resilience against extreme weather is also becoming an important concern. In this study, a modeling and optimization framework for power systems planning, which considers both operational flexibility and resilience against extreme weather events, is proposed. In particular, a set of piece-wise linear models are developed to capture the impact of extreme heat waves and drought events on the performance of the power generation units and on the system load. A method is, also, proposed to incorporate the impact models within a modified optimal power system planning problem that can adequately accommodate high shares of IRES. The framework is applied to a case study based on real future climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under different levels of IRES penetration (up to 50%) and severity of the extreme weather events. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for planning under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) that cover the impact of different trajectories of greenhouse gas concentration on future climate. In particular, RCPs with increase in radiative forcing of +8.5 Wm-2, +4.5 Wm-2 and +2.6 Wm-2 of the pre-industrial levels are considered. The results demonstrate that significant improvements in terms of load supply under an extreme heat wave and drought events can be achieved following the resilient planning framework proposed, compared to conventional planning methods. It is also shown how renewable generation units can improve the system performance against those extreme climate events. Moreover, the quantitative assessment indicates an important interaction between the resilience of the system and its flexibility, and the compound impact of failing to consider either aspect in the power system design phase.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdin, I.F. & Fang, Y.-P. & Zio, E., 2019. "A modeling and optimization framework for power systems design with operational flexibility and resilience against extreme heat waves and drought events," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 706-719.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:112:y:2019:i:c:p:706-719
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.06.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032119303971
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2019.06.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chenni, R. & Makhlouf, M. & Kerbache, T. & Bouzid, A., 2007. "A detailed modeling method for photovoltaic cells," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1724-1730.
    2. Koch, Hagen & Vögele, Stefan, 2009. "Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2031-2039, May.
    3. Ke, Xinda & Wu, Di & Rice, Jennie & Kintner-Meyer, Michael & Lu, Ning, 2016. "Quantifying impacts of heat waves on power grid operation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 504-512.
    4. Abdin, Islam F. & Zio, Enrico, 2018. "An integrated framework for operational flexibility assessment in multi-period power system planning with renewable energy production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 898-914.
    5. Marc Poumadère & Claire Mays & Sophie Le Mer & Russell Blong, 2005. "The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1483-1494, December.
    6. Alizadeh, M.I. & Parsa Moghaddam, M. & Amjady, N. & Siano, P. & Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K., 2016. "Flexibility in future power systems with high renewable penetration: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1186-1193.
    7. Isabelle Tobin & Robert Vautard & Irena Balog & François-Marie Bréon & Sonia Jerez & Paolo Ruti & Françoise Thais & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou, 2015. "Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 99-112, January.
    8. Fang, Yiping & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2017. "Optimizing power system investments and resilience against attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 161-173.
    9. Mavromatakis, F. & Makrides, G. & Georghiou, G. & Pothrakis, A. & Franghiadakis, Y. & Drakakis, E. & Koudoumas, E., 2010. "Modeling the photovoltaic potential of a site," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1387-1390.
    10. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Georgiadis, Michael C., 2015. "A multi-period, multi-regional generation expansion planning model incorporating unit commitment constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 310-331.
    11. Rocchetta, R. & Li, Y.F. & Zio, E., 2015. "Risk assessment and risk-cost optimization of distributed power generation systems considering extreme weather conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 47-61.
    12. Gianluca Fulli & Marcelo Masera & Catalin Felix Covrig & Francesco Profumo & Ettore Bompard & Tao Huang, 2017. "The EU Electricity Security Decision-Analytic Framework: Status and Perspective Developments," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, March.
    13. González-Díaz, Abigail & Alcaráz-Calderón, Agustín M. & González-Díaz, Maria Ortencia & Méndez-Aranda, Ángel & Lucquiaud, Mathieu & González-Santaló, Jose Miguel, 2017. "Effect of the ambient conditions on gas turbine combined cycle power plants with post-combustion CO2 capture," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 221-233.
    14. Cadini, Francesco & Agliardi, Gian Luca & Zio, Enrico, 2017. "A modeling and simulation framework for the reliability/availability assessment of a power transmission grid subject to cascading failures under extreme weather conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 267-279.
    15. Michelle T. H. van Vliet & David Wiberg & Sylvain Leduc & Keywan Riahi, 2016. "Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 375-380, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi‐Ping Fang & Giovanni Sansavini & Enrico Zio, 2019. "An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1949-1969, September.
    2. Ravestein, P. & van der Schrier, G. & Haarsma, R. & Scheele, R. & van den Broek, M., 2018. "Vulnerability of European intermittent renewable energy supply to climate change and climate variability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 497-508.
    3. Ibrahim, Nur Atirah & Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah & Abd Manan, Zainuddin & Mustaffa, Azizul Azri & Kidam, Kamarizan, 2024. "Climate change impact on solar system in Malaysia: Techno-economic analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    4. Turner, Sean W.D. & Nelson, Kristian & Voisin, Nathalie & Tidwell, Vincent & Miara, Ariel & Dyreson, Ana & Cohen, Stuart & Mantena, Dan & Jin, Julie & Warnken, Pete & Kao, Shih-Chieh, 2021. "A multi-reservoir model for projecting drought impacts on thermoelectric disruption risk across the Texas power grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    5. Abdin, Adam F. & Caunhye, Aakil & Zio, Enrico & Cardin, Michel-Alexandre, 2022. "Optimizing generation expansion planning with operational uncertainty: A multistage adaptive robust approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    6. O'Connell, & Voisin, Nathalie & Macknick, & Fu,, 2019. "Sensitivity of Western U.S. power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 745-754.
    7. Oree, Vishwamitra & Sayed Hassen, Sayed Z. & Fleming, Peter J., 2019. "A multi-objective framework for long-term generation expansion planning with variable renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Poncelet, Kris & Delarue, Erik & D’haeseleer, William, 2020. "Unit commitment constraints in long-term planning models: Relevance, pitfalls and the role of assumptions on flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    9. Rocchetta, Roberto, 2022. "Enhancing the resilience of critical infrastructures: Statistical analysis of power grid spectral clustering and post-contingency vulnerability metrics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    10. Liu, Xing & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "A Hierarchical Resilience Enhancement Framework for Interdependent Critical Infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    11. Klimenko, V.V. & Fedotova, E.V. & Tereshin, A.G., 2018. "Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1010-1022.
    12. Chen, Siyuan & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2020. "Low carbon transition pathway of power sector with high penetration of renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. Aissatou Ndiaye & Mounkaila Saley Moussa & Cheikh Dione & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Jan Bliefernicht & Laouali Dungall & Harald Kunstmann, 2022. "Projected Changes in Solar PV and Wind Energy Potential over West Africa: An Analysis of CORDEX-CORE Simulations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-22, December.
    14. Liang, Jing & Wu, Di, 2025. "Heatwaves worsen the air pollution from energy systems: Empirical evidence from balancing authorities in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    15. Oikonomou, Konstantinos & Tarroja, Brian & Kern, Jordan & Voisin, Nathalie, 2022. "Core process representation in power system operational models: Gaps, challenges, and opportunities for multisector dynamics research," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    16. Wang, Jing & Zuo, Wangda & Rhode-Barbarigos, Landolf & Lu, Xing & Wang, Jianhui & Lin, Yanling, 2019. "Literature review on modeling and simulation of energy infrastructures from a resilience perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 360-373.
    17. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-346.
    18. Marta Poncela & Arturs Purvins & Stamatios Chondrogiannis, 2018. "Pan-European Analysis on Power System Flexibility," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, July.
    19. Craig, Michael T. & Cohen, Stuart & Macknick, Jordan & Draxl, Caroline & Guerra, Omar J. & Sengupta, Manajit & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci, Carlo, 2018. "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 255-267.
    20. Guerra, Omar J. & Tejada, Diego A. & Reklaitis, Gintaras V., 2019. "Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for a hydro-dominated power system via stochastic optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 584-598.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:112:y:2019:i:c:p:706-719. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.