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Present and future offshore wind power potential in northern Europe based on downscaled global climate runs with adjusted SST and sea ice cover

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  • Barstad, Idar
  • Sorteberg, Asgeir
  • Mesquita, Michel dos-Santos

Abstract

Coupled global climate models coarse results have been downscaled to produce future wind power maps for northern Europe. The downscaling method utilizes a global, stretched atmospheric numerical model with sea-surface temperature (SST) as the main forcing. The model has horizontal grid spacing equivalent to about 30 km in the area of interest. As the climate models have often problems with the sea ice cover and storm tracks in vicinity of the sea ice, an alternative SST approach has been used. The SST signal from climate model runs under the A1B scenario has been added to the Era40 reanalysis data set, and used as lower boundary forcing. A 30-year control period (1972–2001) is compared to a future period (2020–2049) of equal length. Four realisations of the future period constitute the ensemble, which the future wind power potential is estimated from.

Suggested Citation

  • Barstad, Idar & Sorteberg, Asgeir & Mesquita, Michel dos-Santos, 2012. "Present and future offshore wind power potential in northern Europe based on downscaled global climate runs with adjusted SST and sea ice cover," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 398-405.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:44:y:2012:i:c:p:398-405
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2012.02.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Soares, Pedro M.M. & Lima, Daniela C.A. & Cardoso, Rita M. & Nascimento, Manuel L. & Semedo, Alvaro, 2017. "Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 72-90.
    2. Vu Dinh, Quang & Doan, Quang-Van & Ngo-Duc, Thanh & Nguyen Dinh, Van & Dinh Duc, Nguyen, 2022. "Offshore wind resource in the context of global climate change over a tropical area," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    3. Bloomfield, H.C. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Troccoli, A. & Goodess, C.M. & De Felice, M. & Dubus, L. & Bett, P.E. & Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., 2021. "Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1062-1075.
    4. Gao, Yang & Ma, Shaoxiu & Wang, Tao & Miao, Changhong & Yang, Fan, 2022. "Distributed onshore wind farm siting using intelligent optimization algorithm based on spatial and temporal variability of wind energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    5. Santos, J.A. & Rochinha, C. & Liberato, M.L.R. & Reyers, M. & Pinto, J.G., 2015. "Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 68-80.
    6. Gao, Yang & Ma, Shaoxiu & Wang, Tao, 2019. "The impact of climate change on wind power abundance and variability in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    7. Alexis Tantet & Marc Stéfanon & Philippe Drobinski & Jordi Badosa & Silvia Concettini & Anna Cretì & Claudia D’Ambrosio & Dimitri Thomopulos & Peter Tankov, 2019. "e 4 clim 1.0: The Energy for a Climate Integrated Model: Description and Application to Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-37, November.
    8. Amorim, Filipa & Simoes, Sofia G. & Siggini, Gildas & Assoumou, Edi, 2020. "Introducing climate variability in energy systems modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    9. Hdidouan, Daniel & Staffell, Iain, 2017. "The impact of climate change on the levelised cost of wind energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 575-592.
    10. González, Albano & Pérez, Juan C. & Díaz, Juan P. & Expósito, Francisco J., 2017. "Future projections of wind resource in a mountainous archipelago, Canary Islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 120-128.
    11. Isabelle Tobin & Robert Vautard & Irena Balog & François-Marie Bréon & Sonia Jerez & Paolo Ruti & Françoise Thais & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou, 2015. "Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 99-112, January.
    12. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Amorim, Filipa & Siggini, Gildas & Sessa, Valentina & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Carvalho, Sílvia & Mujtaba, Babar & Diogo, Paulo & Assoumou, Edi, 2022. "How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    13. Piotr Bórawski & Rafał Wyszomierski & Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska & Bartosz Mickiewicz & Beata Kalinowska & James W. Dunn & Tomasz Rokicki, 2022. "Development of Renewable Energy Sources in the European Union in the Context of Sustainable Development Policy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    14. Ahmed, Noor A. & Cameron, Michael, 2014. "The challenges and possible solutions of horizontal axis wind turbines as a clean energy solution for the future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 439-460.
    15. Laura Castro-Santos & Maite deCastro & Xurxo Costoya & Almudena Filgueira-Vizoso & Isabel Lamas-Galdo & Americo Ribeiro & João M. Dias & Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, 2021. "Economic Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Farms Considering Near Future Wind Resources: Case Study of Iberian Coast and Bay of Biscay," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-16, March.
    16. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2021. "Wind energy resource over Europe under CMIP6 future climate projections: What changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Justė Jankevičienė & Arvydas Kanapickas, 2021. "Projected Near-Surface Wind Speed Trends in Lithuania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-13, August.
    18. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    19. Andrés Ruiz & Florin Onea & Eugen Rusu, 2020. "Study Concerning the Expected Dynamics of the Wind Energy Resources in the Iberian Nearshore," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-25, September.
    20. Zhang, Shuangyi & Li, Xichen, 2021. "Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    21. Wilkie, David & Galasso, Carmine, 2020. "Impact of climate-change scenarios on offshore wind turbine structural performance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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