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Wind energy resource over Europe under CMIP6 future climate projections: What changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6

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  • Carvalho, D.
  • Rocha, A.
  • Costoya, X.
  • deCastro, M.
  • Gómez-Gesteira, M.

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on the future European wind resource were investigated according to two of the latest future climate scenarios of CMIP6. Towards the end of the current century SSP2-4.5 projects that some small localized areas can experience an increase in the future wind energy resource (around 15–30 % in eastern Ukraine and Turkey). However, all other European areas will experience a significant decrease (5–15 %), particularly towards the end of the current century in the British Isles, Poland, western Ukraine and northern Norway (10–20 %). For the same time period, SSP5-8.5 projects a decrease in future wind energy resource in practically all of Europe (10–20 %), particularly at northern Norway, Poland and western Ukraine (25–30 %). There is significant uncertainty in changes in the wind resource inter- and intra-annual variability, although SSP2-4.5 projects an increase of the latter over Iberia and eastern Ukraine.

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  • Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2021. "Wind energy resource over Europe under CMIP6 future climate projections: What changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:151:y:2021:i:c:s1364032121008716
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111594
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2023. "Assessing the complementarity of future hybrid wind and solar photovoltaic energy resources for North America," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. He, J.Y. & Li, Q.S. & Chan, P.W. & Zhao, X.D., 2023. "Assessment of future wind resources under climate change using a multi-model and multi-method ensemble approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    5. Laibao Liu & Gang He & Mengxi Wu & Gang Liu & Haoran Zhang & Ying Chen & Jiashu Shen & Shuangcheng Li, 2023. "Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 870-880, August.
    6. He, J.Y. & Chan, P.W. & Li, Q.S. & Tong, H.W., 2023. "Mapping future offshore wind resources in the South China Sea under climate change by regional climate modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

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    Keywords

    Climate change; Wind energy; Global warming; CMIP6; Europe;
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