IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v328y2025ics0360544225019978.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Offshore wind resources in the Caspian Sea under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Ghanghermeh, A.A.
  • Roshan, Gh.R.
  • Martinez, A.
  • Iglesias, G.

Abstract

Wind energy is significantly influenced by climate change, impacting its variability and utilization. This study examines the evolution of offshore wind resources in the Caspian Sea up to 2090, using the latest climate change scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs included in this work are: SSP5-8.5, considering high emissions from an economic growth based on fossil-fuel consumption; and SSP2-4.5, reflecting a moderate-emission pathway where current policies remain relatively invariable. To enhance the accuracy and robustness of results, a multi-model ensemble is constructed with the Global Climate Models that perform best in the Caspian Sea region. Projections up to 2090 indicate a significant decrease in average wind power density (WPD) compared to the baseline period (1961–2023) – drops in WPD in 16.6 % of the study area are projected from the 2030s to the 2090s. Seasonal variations show a generalized decrease in WPD during autumn and an increase in summer (23 % and 17.5 % in area, respectively). Substantial changes in WPD, ranging from −70 % to +80 %, are projected depending on the region and period. Using Emerging Hot Spot Analysis, the study highlights spatial and temporal shifts in WPD, identifying an enlargement of cold spots, particularly Persistent Cold Spots, in the South Caspian Sea; and an expansion of hot spots, particularly Persistent Hot Spots, in the Middle and North Caspian. This research uncovers the detrimental effects of climate change on the wind resources in the region and highlights the relevance of these results for developing effective energy management strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghanghermeh, A.A. & Roshan, Gh.R. & Martinez, A. & Iglesias, G., 2025. "Offshore wind resources in the Caspian Sea under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:328:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225019978
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136355
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225019978
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.136355?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2020. "On the suitability of offshore wind energy resource in the United States of America for the 21st century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    2. Mostafaeipour, Ali, 2010. "Feasibility study of offshore wind turbine installation in Iran compared with the world," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(7), pages 1722-1743, September.
    3. Martinez, A. & Iglesias, G., 2024. "Global wind energy resources decline under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    4. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Feng, Z. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2021. "Climate change impacts on the future offshore wind energy resource in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 731-747.
    5. Javier Serrano González & Manuel Burgos Payán & Jesús Manuel Riquelme Santos & Ángel Gaspar González Rodríguez, 2021. "Optimal Micro-Siting of Weathervaning Floating Wind Turbines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Pimenta, Felipe & Kempton, Willett & Garvine, Richard, 2008. "Combining meteorological stations and satellite data to evaluate the offshore wind power resource of Southeastern Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2375-2387.
    7. Kubik, M.L. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Coker, P.J. & Barlow, J.F., 2013. "Exploring the role of reanalysis data in simulating regional wind generation variability over Northern Ireland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 558-561.
    8. Amirinia, Gholamreza & Kamranzad, Bahareh & Mafi, Somayeh, 2017. "Wind and wave energy potential in southern Caspian Sea using uncertainty analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 332-345.
    9. Davy, Richard & Gnatiuk, Natalia & Pettersson, Lasse & Bobylev, Leonid, 2018. "Climate change impacts on wind energy potential in the European domain with a focus on the Black Sea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1652-1659.
    10. Cannon, D.J. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Methven, J. & Coker, P.J. & Lenaghan, D., 2015. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: A 33 year case study in Great Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 767-778.
    11. Martinez, A. & Murphy, L. & Iglesias, G., 2023. "Evolution of offshore wind resources in Northern Europe under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    12. Rusu, Eugen & Onea, Florin, 2013. "Evaluation of the wind and wave energy along the Caspian Sea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-14.
    13. Zhang, Shuangyi & Li, Xichen, 2021. "Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    14. Stubenrauch, Jessica & Garske, Beatrice, 2023. "Forest protection in the EU's renewable energy directive and nature conservation legislation in light of the climate and biodiversity crisis – Identifying legal shortcomings and solutions," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    15. Manzano-Agugliaro, F. & Alcayde, A. & Montoya, F.G. & Zapata-Sierra, A. & Gil, C., 2013. "Scientific production of renewable energies worldwide: An overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 134-143.
    16. Emilio Laino & Gregorio Iglesias, 2024. "High-level characterisation and mapping of key climate-change hazards in European coastal cities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(4), pages 3623-3659, March.
    17. Enevoldsen, Peter, 2018. "A socio-technical framework for examining the consequences of deforestation: A case study of wind project development in Northern Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 138-147.
    18. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2021. "Wind energy resource over Europe under CMIP6 future climate projections: What changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Moradian, Sogol & Olbert, Agnieszka I. & Gharbia, Salem & Iglesias, Gregorio, 2023. "Copula-based projections of wind power: Ireland as a case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    20. Chen, Xinping & Foley, Aoife & Zhang, Zenghai & Wang, Kaimin & O'Driscoll, Kieran, 2020. "An assessment of wind energy potential in the Beibu Gulf considering the energy demands of the Beibu Gulf Economic Rim," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    21. Zhuo, Chen & Junhong, Guo & Wei, Li & Fei, Zhang & Chan, Xiao & Zhangrong, Pan, 2022. "Changes in wind energy potential over China using a regional climate model ensemble," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    22. D. Coumou & G. Di Capua & S. Vavrus & L. Wang & S. Wang, 2018. "The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    23. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & Silva Santos, C., 2017. "Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 29-40.
    24. Rabbani, R. & Zeeshan, M., 2020. "Exploring the suitability of MERRA-2 reanalysis data for wind energy estimation, analysis of wind characteristics and energy potential assessment for selected sites in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1240-1251.
    25. Johnson, Dana L. & Erhardt, Robert J., 2016. "Projected impacts of climate change on wind energy density in the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 66-73.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martinez, A. & Iglesias, G., 2024. "Global wind energy resources decline under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    2. deCastro, M. & Rusu, L. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2024. "Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. He, J.Y. & Li, Q.S. & Chan, P.W. & Zhao, X.D., 2023. "Assessment of future wind resources under climate change using a multi-model and multi-method ensemble approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    4. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Zhang, Shuangyi & Li, Xichen, 2021. "Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    6. Vu Dinh, Quang & Doan, Quang-Van & Ngo-Duc, Thanh & Nguyen Dinh, Van & Dinh Duc, Nguyen, 2022. "Offshore wind resource in the context of global climate change over a tropical area," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    7. Nagababu, Garlapati & Srinivas, Bhasuru Abhinaya & Kachhwaha, Surendra Singh & Puppala, Harish & Kumar, Surisetty V.V.Arun, 2023. "Can offshore wind energy help to attain carbon neutrality amid climate change? A GIS-MCDM based analysis to unravel the facts using CORDEX-SA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    8. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2023. "Assessing the complementarity of future hybrid wind and solar photovoltaic energy resources for North America," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    9. Warder, Simon C. & Piggott, Matthew D., 2025. "The future of offshore wind power production: Wake and climate impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 380(C).
    10. He, J.Y. & Chan, P.W. & Li, Q.S. & Tong, H.W., 2023. "Mapping future offshore wind resources in the South China Sea under climate change by regional climate modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    11. Esnaola, Ganix & Ulazia, Alain & Sáenz, Jon & Ibarra-Berastegi, Gabriel, 2024. "Future changes of global Annual and Seasonal Wind-Energy Production in CMIP6 projections considering air density variation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    12. Zhang, Zeyu & Liang, Yushi & Xue, Xinyue & Li, Yan & Zhang, Mulan & Li, Yiran & Ji, Xiaodong, 2024. "China's future wind energy considering air density during climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    13. Yang, Zihao & Dong, Sheng, 2024. "A novel framework for wind energy assessment at multi-time scale based on non-stationary wind speed models: A case study in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    14. Tolga Kara & Ahmet Duran Şahin, 2023. "Implications of Climate Change on Wind Energy Potential," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.
    15. Miao, Haozeyu & Xu, Haiming & Huang, Gang & Yang, Kai, 2023. "Evaluation and future projections of wind energy resources over the Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 809-821.
    16. Cristian Mattar & Felipe Cabello-Españon & Nicolas G. Alonso-de-Linaje, 2021. "Towards a Future Scenario for Offshore Wind Energy in Chile: Breaking the Paradigm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.
    17. Suomalainen, Kiti & Wen, Le & Sheng, Mingyue Selena & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "Climate change impact on the cost of decarbonisation in a hydro-based power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    18. Abdelaziz, Sara & Sparrow, Sarah N. & Hua, Weiqi & Wallom, David C.H., 2024. "Assessing long-term future climate change impacts on extreme low wind events for offshore wind turbines in the UK exclusive economic zone," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 354(PB).
    19. Guo, Junhong & Chen, Zhuo & Meng, Jing & Zheng, Heran & Fan, Yuri & Ji, Ling & Wang, Xiuquan & Liang, Xi, 2024. "Picturing China's photovoltaic energy future: Insights from CMIP6 climate projections," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    20. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2021. "Wind energy resource over Europe under CMIP6 future climate projections: What changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:328:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225019978. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.