Forecasting offshore wind energy in Atlantic Europe using CMIP6 dynamically downscaled data

Europe leads in the utilization of offshore wind energy, yet its substantial potential for future development remains uncertain due to limited comprehensive assessments that integrate both climatic and economic perspectives. Accurately quantifying this potential requires not only resource abundance estimation but also an evaluation of variability, environmental constraints, and cost-effectiveness—an aspect often underexplored in previous studies. To address this gap, we perform a regional assessment of future offshore wind energy across Atlantic Europe by combining high-resolution climate projections with economic analysis. Wind resources are classified according to abundance, variability, environmental risks, and economic considerations, while the Levelized Cost of Energy of floating offshore wind farms is computed across the domain to identify the most economically advantageous zones. The analysis relies on dynamical downscaling of 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project multi-model ensemble data using the Weather Research and Forecasting model under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2–4.5 and 5–8.5. Results indicate that offshore wind potential in Atlantic Europe is projected to increase in the near future, with most coastal waters classified as “excellent” (5/7) for harnessing wind energy. Furthermore, Levelized Cost of Energy estimates highlight particularly favorable areas around the United Kingdom and Ireland (<100 €/MWh), as well as northwestern Spain and French Brittany (110–120 €/MWh).