IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v206y2020ics0360544220311968.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Introducing climate variability in energy systems modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Amorim, Filipa
  • Simoes, Sofia G.
  • Siggini, Gildas
  • Assoumou, Edi

Abstract

This paper presents the ongoing research within Clim2Power project Portuguese case study. Its main goal (as a first step) is to show the relevance of using a highly detailed spatial and temporal modeling tool of the Portuguese electricity system in order to be able to adequately capture climate variability in the planning of the system up to 2050. To do so, we consider seasonal and intraday hydro, wind and solar resources variability in a large TIMES energy system model, in the eTIMES_PT model. Existing hydro, wind and thermal powerplants are modelled individually, whereas new plants are modelled at municipality level. The importance of introducing climate variability is assessed by modeling six scenarios: a reference case and both “humid” and “dry” hydropower scenarios. Each of these is also modelled with CO2 emissions cap by 2050. Results show that hydropower electricity generation variations are within range of those referred in literature by other authors. However, in this work, we are able to capture higher variations within seasons and time of day. Also, the analysis enables to account for the combined variability of hydro, PV and wind resources. This variability will subsequently consider data from seasonal forecasts and climate projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Amorim, Filipa & Simoes, Sofia G. & Siggini, Gildas & Assoumou, Edi, 2020. "Introducing climate variability in energy systems modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:206:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220311968
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118089
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220311968
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118089?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    2. Welder, Lara & Ryberg, D.Severin & Kotzur, Leander & Grube, Thomas & Robinius, Martin & Stolten, Detlef, 2018. "Spatio-temporal optimization of a future energy system for power-to-hydrogen applications in Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 1130-1149.
    3. Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte, 2016. "Carpe diem: A novel approach to select representative days for long-term power system modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 430-442.
    4. Collins, Seán & Deane, John Paul & Poncelet, Kris & Panos, Evangelos & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Delarue, Erik & Ó Gallachóir, Brian Pádraig, 2017. "Integrating short term variations of the power system into integrated energy system models: A methodological review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 839-856.
    5. Dias, Luís & Gouveia, João Pedro & Lourenço, Paulo & Seixas, Júlia, 2019. "Interplay between the potential of photovoltaic systems and agricultural land use," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 725-735.
    6. Barstad, Idar & Sorteberg, Asgeir & Mesquita, Michel dos-Santos, 2012. "Present and future offshore wind power potential in northern Europe based on downscaled global climate runs with adjusted SST and sea ice cover," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 398-405.
    7. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2011. "Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4692-4702, September.
    8. Simoes, Sofia & Zeyringer, Marianne & Mayr, Dieter & Huld, Thomas & Nijs, Wouter & Schmidt, Johannes, 2017. "Impact of different levels of geographical disaggregation of wind and PV electricity generation in large energy system models: A case study for Austria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 183-198.
    9. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    10. Amorim, Filipa & Pina, André & Gerbelová, Hana & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia & Vasconcelos, Jorge & Martins, Victor, 2014. "Electricity decarbonisation pathways for 2050 in Portugal: A TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) based approach in closed versus open systems modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-112.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    2. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Amorim, Filipa & Siggini, Gildas & Sessa, Valentina & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Carvalho, Sílvia & Mujtaba, Babar & Diogo, Paulo & Assoumou, Edi, 2022. "How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    3. Assoumou, Edi & McIsaac, Florent, 2022. "Côte d'Ivoire's electricity challenge in 2050: Reconciling economic development and climate commitments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Figueiredo, Raquel & Nunes, Pedro & Brito, Miguel C., 2021. "The resilience of a decarbonized power system to climate variability: Portuguese case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    5. Frapin, Marie & Roux, Charlotte & Assoumou, Edi & Peuportier, Bruno, 2022. "Modelling long-term and short-term temporal variation and uncertainty of electricity production in the life cycle assessment of buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Miranda, Raul & Simoes, Sofia & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2019. "Adding detailed transmission constraints to a long-term integrated assessment model – A case study for Brazil using the TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 791-803.
    3. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Amorim, Filipa & Siggini, Gildas & Sessa, Valentina & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Carvalho, Sílvia & Mujtaba, Babar & Diogo, Paulo & Assoumou, Edi, 2022. "How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    4. Niina Helistö & Juha Kiviluoma & Hannele Holttinen & Jose Daniel Lara & Bri‐Mathias Hodge, 2019. "Including operational aspects in the planning of power systems with large amounts of variable generation: A review of modeling approaches," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(5), September.
    5. Maximilian Hoffmann & Leander Kotzur & Detlef Stolten & Martin Robinius, 2020. "A Review on Time Series Aggregation Methods for Energy System Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-61, February.
    6. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Seljom, Pernille & Lind, Arne & Wagner, Fabian & Mesfun, Sennai, 2020. "Short-term solar and wind variability in long-term energy system models - A European case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    7. Mertens, Tim & Poncelet, Kris & Duerinck, Jan & Delarue, Erik, 2020. "Representing cross-border trade of electricity in long-term energy-system optimization models with a limited geographical scope," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    8. Markus Lauer & Daniela Thrän, 2018. "Flexible Biogas in Future Energy Systems—Sleeping Beauty for a Cheaper Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, March.
    9. Lisa Göransson & Caroline Granfeldt & Ann-Brith Strömberg, 2021. "Management of Wind Power Variations in Electricity System Investment Models," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, June.
    10. James H. Merrick & John E. T. Bistline & Geoffrey J. Blanford, 2021. "On representation of energy storage in electricity planning models," Papers 2105.03707, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    11. Anjo, João & Neves, Diana & Silva, Carlos & Shivakumar, Abhishek & Howells, Mark, 2018. "Modeling the long-term impact of demand response in energy planning: The Portuguese electric system case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 456-468.
    12. Millinger, M. & Reichenberg, L. & Hedenus, F. & Berndes, G. & Zeyen, E. & Brown, T., 2022. "Are biofuel mandates cost-effective? - An analysis of transport fuels and biomass usage to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    13. Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E., 2019. "Review of models for integrating renewable energy in the generation expansion planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1573-1587.
    14. Yazdanie, M. & Orehounig, K., 2021. "Advancing urban energy system planning and modeling approaches: Gaps and solutions in perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Hoffmann, Maximilian & Priesmann, Jan & Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron & Kotzur, Leander & Stolten, Detlef, 2021. "Typical periods or typical time steps? A multi-model analysis to determine the optimal temporal aggregation for energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    16. Katarzyna Kubiak-Wójcicka & Leszek Szczęch, 2021. "Dynamics of Electricity Production against the Backdrop of Climate Change: A Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-24, June.
    17. Thomas Heggarty & Jean-Yves Bourmaud & Robin Girard & Georges Kariniotakis, 2024. "Assessing the relative impacts of maximum investment rate and temporal detail in capacity expansion models applied to power systems," Post-Print hal-04383397, HAL.
    18. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Nastasi, Benedetto & Groppi, Daniele & Misconel, Steffi & Garcia, Davide Astiaso & Sparber, Wolfram, 2022. "Comparison methods of energy system frameworks, models and scenario results," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    19. Phillips, K. & Moncada, J.A. & Ergun, H. & Delarue, E., 2023. "Spatial representation of renewable technologies in generation expansion planning models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    20. Nagatomo, Yu & Ozawa, Akito & Kudoh, Yuki & Hondo, Hiroki, 2021. "Impacts of employment in power generation on renewable-based energy systems in Japan— Analysis using an energy system model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:206:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220311968. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.