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The Costs of Climate Change for the European Energy System, an Assessment with the POLES Model

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  • Silvana Mima

    () (équipe EDDEN - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)

  • Patrick Criqui

    () (équipe EDDEN - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)

Abstract

The paper presents a model-based approach describing the impacts of climate change on the European energy system. Existing analyses only estimate a limited range of climate impacts over a limited geographical area. Using the POLES model and the results from several climate models, the present paper quantifies the main impacts of climate change on the European energy sector, country by country, thus achieving progress in this direction. As far as energy demand is concerned, our main finding is that higher temperatures will mean that air-conditioning will consume more energy, reaching about 53 Mtoe by 2100 in a scenario with no strong emissions constraints (A1B). On the other hand less energy will be consumed for heating buildings, falling by about 65 Mtoe per year. This represents a net decrease in energy consumption of about 12 Mtoe by 2100. On the supply side, more constrained and expensive operating conditions for electric power plants will result in lower electricity generation by thermal, nuclear and hydro-power plants, with a maximum decrease of about 200 TWh in 2070 in the A1B scenario and 150 TWh in 2060 and 2080 for a low emissions scenario (E1). These effects vary a great deal across Europe and remain very dependent on the uncertainties affecting the results of the various climate models. This overall uncertainty may inhibit effective decisions. However the study offers insights not otherwise available without the full coverage of the energy system provided by POLES and climate features provided by climate models. The study identifies the main impacts of climate change in a strategic sector and provides an "order of magnitude" or "central trend" for these impacts, which might be useful in an adaptive policy of act, learn and then act again.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvana Mima & Patrick Criqui, 2015. "The Costs of Climate Change for the European Energy System, an Assessment with the POLES Model," Post-Print hal-01149610, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01149610
    DOI: 10.1007/s10666-015-9449-3
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-01149610
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    File URL: http://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-01149610/document
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enrica De Cian & Elisa Lanzi & Roberto Roson, 2007. "The Impact of Temperature Change on Energy Demand: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," Working Papers 2007.46, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
    3. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Sovacool, Kelly E., 2009. "Identifying future electricity-water tradeoffs in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2763-2773, July.
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    7. Lehner, Bernhard & Czisch, Gregor & Vassolo, Sara, 2005. "The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 839-855, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:enepol:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:418-425 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2117-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Alban Kitous & Jacques Despres, 2017. "Assessment of the impact of climate change on residential energy demand for heating and cooling," JRC Working Papers JRC110191, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    4. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. De Cian, Enrica & Wing, Ian Sue, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 232222, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).

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    Keywords

    Costs of the impacts of climate change; Climate impacts; Climate change;

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