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CMIP-5 models project photovoltaics are a no-regrets investment in Europe irrespective of climate change

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  • Müller, Johannes
  • Folini, Doris
  • Wild, Martin
  • Pfenninger, Stefan

Abstract

Using projections of surface solar radiation and temperature from 23 CMIP5 global climate models for two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 & 8.5) we quantify the average change in PV electricity production expected in the years 2060–2080 compared to the present (2007–2027). We upsample daily radiation data to hourly resolution with a sinusoidal diurnal cycle model and split it into direct and diffuse radiation with the semi-empirical BRL model as input to a PV electricity generation model. Locally, changes in PV potential from −6% to +3% in annual and −25% to +10% in monthly means are shown. These projections are combined with a PV deployment scenario and show countries benefitting from increased PV yields include Spain, France, Italy and Germany. We also calculate uncertainties when calculating PV yield with input data at daily or lower resolution, demonstrating that our method to derive synthetic hourly profiles should be of use for other researchers using input data with low temporal resolution. We conclude that PV is an attractive and no-regrets investment in Europe irrespective of future climate change, and can continue to play a key role in energy system decarbonisation.

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  • Müller, Johannes & Folini, Doris & Wild, Martin & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2019. "CMIP-5 models project photovoltaics are a no-regrets investment in Europe irrespective of climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 135-148.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:171:y:2019:i:c:p:135-148
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.139
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    5. Coker, Phil J. & Bloomfield, Hannah C. & Drew, Daniel R. & Brayshaw, David J., 2020. "Interannual weather variability and the challenges for Great Britain’s electricity market design," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 509-522.
    6. Barbón, A. & Ayuso, P. Fortuny & Bayón, L. & Silva, C.A., 2021. "A comparative study between racking systems for photovoltaic power systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 424-437.
    7. Barbón, A. & Bayón-Cueli, C. & Bayón, L. & Rodríguez-Suanzes, C., 2022. "Analysis of the tilt and azimuth angles of photovoltaic systems in non-ideal positions for urban applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    8. Henckes, Philipp & Frank, Christopher & Küchler, Nils & Peter, Jakob & Wagner, Johannes, 2020. "Uncertainty estimation of investment planning models under high shares of renewables using reanalysis data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
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