Quantifying the air pollution impacts on solar photovoltaic capacity factors and potential benefits of pollution control for the solar sector in China

Solar photovoltaic (PV) plays a crucial role in China's energy transition. However, air pollution diminishes solar radiation resources, thereby reducing PV power generation efficiency. This study aims to quantify the impacts of air pollution on PV capacity factors in China while emphasizing the geographically specific potential benefits of improved air quality for the future PV sector. Using a PV power generation evaluation model, this study estimated solar PV capacity factors from 1961 to 2016 under both all-sky and clear-sky scenarios. Also, the spatiotemporal patterns of air pollution-induced capacity factor changes were analyzed. The results indicate that the all-sky and clear-sky PV capacity factors showed consistent annual anomalies, suggesting that air pollution due to aerosol emissions drove PV capacity factor temporal evolutions and trends in China. From 1961 to 1990, the national average clear-sky PV capacity factors for fixed modules with optimal tilt angle showed a significant decreasing trend of −0.0053 per decade, whereas from 1990 to 2016, an upward trend of 0.0030 per decade was observed. Compared with fixed modules, tracking systems suffered from greater productivity losses due to air pollution. In comparison to 1961–1965 averages, the provincial PV capacity factors for 2012–2016 decreased by 0.48–13.54%, 1.15–11.40%, 1.06–14.83%, and 1.31–16.51% for fixed modules with optimal tilt angle, horizontal fixed, one-axis horizontal tracking, and two-axis tracking modules, respectively, with decreases of 7–17% in the central and southeast. Furthermore, according to the provincial PV installation targets projected in China's 14th Five-Year Plan, national solar PV power generation was expected to increase by 81.333 TWh to 1069.997 TWh in 2025 with average PV capacity factors for 1961–1965, compared to 2012–2016 averages. In a scenario of keeping grid parity, additional power generation would offer an economic benefit of approximately 30.102 billion CNY.