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Resolution of the cloud enhancement problem for one-minute diffuse radiation prediction

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  • Starke, Allan R.
  • Lemos, Leonardo F.L.
  • Boland, John
  • Cardemil, José M.
  • Colle, Sergio

Abstract

For design and simulation of solar energy systems, quality information about all components of solar irradiance is crucial. In cases when only global irradiance measurements are available, separation models are a useful method to estimate DNI and diffuse irradiation. Several of such models have been developed since the 1960s, most of them aiming to deliver estimates in hourly resolution. For higher data resolution, such as in minute data, those models are not able to describe fast transient and cloud enhancement phenomena commonly observed in data with smaller time-steps. This paper proposes an adaptation of the BRL separation model, making it capable of delivering more precise irradiance estimates for higher resolution data. Two models result from this adaptation: one for Brazil and other for Australia. The proposed models yield a more precise DNI and diffuse fraction estimates to their respective countries, compared to other separation models commonly used in the technical literature. For example, using the recommended Combined Performance Index (CPI) as a single statistical indicator, the proposed model yields DNI estimates with CPI from 230 to 350% for Australia, and from 270 to 800% for Brazil, while the Engerer model, recently recommended as a ‘‘quasi-universal” 1-min separation model, yields DNI estimates with CPI from 500 to 700% for Australia, and from 600 to 1800% for Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Starke, Allan R. & Lemos, Leonardo F.L. & Boland, John & Cardemil, José M. & Colle, Sergio, 2018. "Resolution of the cloud enhancement problem for one-minute diffuse radiation prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 472-484.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:125:y:2018:i:c:p:472-484
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2018.02.107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boland, John & Huang, Jing & Ridley, Barbara, 2013. "Decomposing global solar radiation into its direct and diffuse components," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 749-756.
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    5. Ridley, Barbara & Boland, John & Lauret, Philippe, 2010. "Modelling of diffuse solar fraction with multiple predictors," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-483.
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    Cited by:

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    7. Alonso-Montesinos, J. & Monterreal, R. & Fernández-Reche, J. & Ballestrín, J. & Carra, E. & Polo, J. & Barbero, J. & Batlles, F.J. & López, G. & Enrique, R. & Martínez-Durbán, M. & Marzo, A., 2019. "Intra-hour energy potential forecasting in a central solar power plant receiver combining Meteosat images and atmospheric extinction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    8. Yang, Dazhi & Gu, Yizhan & Mayer, Martin János & Gueymard, Christian A. & Wang, Wenting & Kleissl, Jan & Li, Mengying & Chu, Yinghao & Bright, Jamie M., 2024. "Regime-dependent 1-min irradiance separation model with climatology clustering," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    9. John Boland & Adrian Grantham, 2018. "Nonparametric Conditional Heteroscedastic Hourly Probabilistic Forecasting of Solar Radiation," J, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Manni, Mattia & Jouttijärvi, Sami & Ranta, Samuli & Miettunen, Kati & Lobaccaro, Gabriele, 2024. "Validation of model chains for global tilted irradiance on East-West vertical bifacial photovoltaics at high latitudes," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    11. Vamvakas, Ioannis & Salamalikis, Vasileios & Kazantzidis, Andreas, 2020. "Evaluation of enhancement events of global horizontal irradiance due to clouds at Patras, South-West Greece," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 764-771.
    12. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2023. "Pairing ensemble numerical weather prediction with ensemble physical model chain for probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    13. Starke, Allan R. & Lemos, Leonardo F.L. & Barni, Cristian M. & Machado, Rubinei D. & Cardemil, José M. & Boland, John & Colle, Sergio, 2021. "Assessing one-minute diffuse fraction models based on worldwide climate features," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 700-714.
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